Hauke L. Kite-Powell

The safety of commercial fishing: Determinants of vessel total losses and injuries

Problem: Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. This study investigates determinants of vessel total losses and number of fatal and nonfatal crew injuries resulting from commercial fishing vessel accidents. Method: An injury and vessel damage accident model is developed. Total vessel loss and crew injury models are estimated using probit and negative binomial regressions, respectively, and a unique micro data set of commercial fishing vessel accidents. Results: Estimation results indicate that the probability of a total loss is the greatest for a capsizing, followed by a sinking accident. Fire/explosions and capsizings are expected to incur the greatest number of crew fatalities -- 3.5 and 3.8 for every 100 such accidents. For every 100 collisions, 2.1 nonfatal crew injuries are expected. The probability of a total loss and the expected number of crew fatalities vary inversely with the price of fish catches. Discussion: We discuss relevant issues related to fishing vessel safety management and regulation. Important vessel safety measures are summarized. Summary: Policy implications: (a) policies that reduce capsizings and sinkings will be effective in reducing fishing vessel accident total losses; (b) policies that reduce fire/explosions and capsizings (collisions) will be effective in reducing fatal (nonfatal) injuries. Impact on Industry: Policymakers should find the results of this study useful in developing regulation and enforcement mechanisms for reducing fishing vessel injuries and total losses.

Safety at sea and fisheries management:: fishermen's attitudes and the need for co-management

Safety at sea is a serious issue for the commercial fishing industry; it ranks highly in all assessments of occupational dangers including risk-taking, injuries, and fatalities. This paper examines the impact of fisheries management on safety at sea and the use of fishermens input in the safety regulatory and management process. Using case study techniques of analysis, 22 boatowners, captains and crew all with a minimum of 10 years experience in the commercial fishing industry and from a common New England port (New Bedford) are interviewed. Findings strongly suggest that regulations that have been primarily designed to reduce pressure on fish stocks may also result in increased pressure on fishermen and decreased safety at sea. Attitudes about the role of the New England Fisheries Management Council and improvements to the safety regulatory and management process particularly with regard to the increased participation by fishermen are also examined.

A model of fishing vessel accident probability

PROBLEM Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. METHOD The researchers develop a fishing vessel accident probability model for fishing areas off the northeastern United States using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 1993. RESULTS The results indicate that fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speed is associated with greater accident probability. Medium-size vessels have the highest accident probability, while small vessels have the lowest. Within the study region, accident probability is lower in the southwestern section than in the northeastern section. Accidents are likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lowest in spring. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY The probability model is an important building block in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.

OPTIMAL FLEET UTILIZATION AND REPLACEMENT

The fleet replacement problem of a profit-maximizing manager is examined using an optimal control model that captures both utilization and replacement decisions. Conditions for optimal utilization of each vessel in the fleet and optimal vessel acquisition and retirement strategies are discussed. The results indicate that the optimal replacement schedule and fleet size are influenced by utilization schedules, and vice versa. Thus, replacement and utilization strategies should be determined jointly. We develop a numerical example to illustrate the models potential as a practical management decision tool and the procedures to solve it.

The Optimal Allocation of Ocean Space: Aquaculture and Wild-Harvest Fisheries

A significant problem hindering the emergence or the continued growth of aquaculture in many marine areas is the conflict that arises among it and other ocean uses. We develop a framework to clarify the choice of the optimal scale of aquaculture when that use impacts a commercial fishery. We identify a range of potential impacts, both positive and negative, and analyze how one or more might affect the carrying capacity of a fish stock. We conduct a numerical simulation to illustrate a case where aquaculture and fishery uses interact in the ocean and compete in the product market, and we find that an ocean area could be devoted exclusively to aquaculture. This result depends strongly upon assumptions about the nature of the interaction, the geographic distribution of fish, and the aquaculture production technology. We also investigate the behavior of the model when both uses are able to coexist.

Determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of passenger vessel accidents that were investigated by the US Coast Guard for the years 1991–2001. Negative binomial and Poisson regression estimates suggest that: (1) passenger-freight combination vessel accidents incur greater injuries than other types of passenger vessels, (2) deaths are greater when precipitation weather and poor visibility exist and (3) missing occupants are greater for capsize accidents and larger the vessel. The damage cost per vessel gross ton is less for ocean cruise and steel-hulled vessels. The major conclusion of the study is that human (as opposed to environmental and vessel) causes of passenger vessel accidents result in increases in the number of injured, deceased and missing occupants.

THE FUTURE OF U.S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY

The United States today imports most of the seafood it consumes. Half of these imports are from aquaculture. Domestic wild capture production is limited and U.S. aquaculture production has declined in recent years. Policy, socioeconomic, and regulatory obstacles stand in the way of expanded U.S. aquaculture production. In this article, we examine the implications of two future paths for seafood supply: an increasing reliance on imports, and a shift toward increased domestic aquaculture production. We examine global trends, likely future developments in U.S. seafood demand and supply, and implications of the path of U.S. aquaculture development for U.S. seafood supply and prices, employment, ecological footprint, and seafood supply security and safety. We conclude with recommendations for a path forward that serves the interests of the nation and the global community in the search for economically sound and sustainable ways to feed a growing population.

A Bioeconomic Analysis of Traditional Fisheries in the Red Sea

Abstract We undertake a bioeconomic analysis of the aggregate traditional fisheries in the Northern and Central areas of Red Sea off the coast of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Results of our analysis using a Fox model and the Clarke-Yoshimoto- Pooley (CY&P) estimation procedure suggest that the aggregate traditional fisheries have been overfished since the early 1990s. The estimated stock size in recent years is as low as 6,400 MT, while the estimated stock size associated with the maximum economic yield (MEY) is 19,300 MT. The socially optimal level of fishing effort is about 139,000 days. Thus, the current effort level of 300,000 to 350,000 days constitutes a problem of overfishing. The estimated current total gross revenue from the traditional fisheries is Saudi Rials (SR) 147 million with zero net benefit. If total fishing effort is reduced to the socially optimal level, then we estimate gross revenue would be SR 167 million and the potential net benefit from the KSA Red Sea traditional fisheries could be as large as SR 111 million. JEL Classification Code: Q22

VESSEL ACCIDENT OIL-SPILLAGE: POST US OPA-90

Abstract The vessel accident oil-spillage literature has focused on oil-cargo vessels, tankers and tank barges, implicitly assuming that these vessels incur greater accident oil-spillage than other (i.e., non-oil-cargo) vessels which just carry oil in their fuel tanks. This study investigates the validity of this assumption for the post US OPA-90 (Oil Pollution Act of 1990) period by investigating determinants of vessel accident oil-spillage, where one of the hypothesized determinants is type of vessel (including both oil-cargo and non-oil-cargo vessels). Tobit regression estimates of vessel accident oil-spillage functions suggest that tank barges have incurred greater in-water and out-of-water oil-spillage for the post OPA-90 period than non-oil-cargo vessels; alternatively, tankers have not incurred greater out-of-water (in-water) oil-spillage than non-oil-cargo vessels (except for freight ships). The policy implication is that greater attention needs to be given to reducing tank barge accident oil-spillage in the post OPA-90 period.

RISK ASSESSMENT IN OPEN-OCEAN AQUACULTURE: A FIRM-LEVEL INVESTMENT-PRODUCTION MODEL

ABSTRACT We develop a framework for risk assessment in open-ocean aquaculture. The framework consists of three components: a firm-level investment-production model simulates a specific grow-out project and estimates the projects benefit-cost values, a second model calculates the risk premium for a risk-averse investor, and a third model quantifies the option value for a risk-neutral investor. We show that under uncertainty, the traditional NPV rule for making an investment should be modified. We illustrate our models using a case study of open-ocean aquaculture of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in New England.