Havala O. T. Pye

Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium aerosol levels in the United States

Global simulations of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosols are performed for the present day and 2050 using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together, with the primary focus of the work on future inorganic aerosol levels over the United States. Climate change alone is predicted to lead to decreases in levels of sulfate and ammonium in the southeast U.S. but increases in the Midwest and northeast U.S. Nitrate concentrations are projected to decrease across the U.S. as a result of climate change alone. In the U.S., climate change alone can cause changes in annually averaged sulfate-nitrate-ammonium of up to 0.61 μg/m^3, with seasonal changes often being much larger in magnitude. When changes in anthropogenic emissions are considered (with or without changes in climate), domestic sulfate concentrations are projected to decrease because of sulfur dioxide emission reductions, and nitrate concentrations are predicted to generally increase because of higher ammonia emissions combined with decreases in sulfate despite reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides. The ammonium burden is projected to increase from 0.24 to 0.36 Tg, and the sulfate burden to increase from 0.28 to 0.40 Tg S as a result of globally higher ammonia and sulfate emissions in the future. The global nitrate burden is predicted to remain essentially constant at 0.35 Tg, with changes in both emissions and climate as a result of the competing effects of higher precursor emissions and increased temperature.

Epoxide Pathways Improve Model Predictions of Isoprene Markers and Reveal Key Role of Acidity in Aerosol Formation

Isoprene significantly contributes to organic aerosol in the southeastern United States where biogenic hydrocarbons mix with anthropogenic emissions. In this work, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model is updated to predict isoprene aerosol from epoxides produced under both high- and low-NOx conditions. The new aqueous aerosol pathways allow for explicit predictions of two key isoprene-derived species, 2-methyltetrols and 2-methylglyceric acid, that are more consistent with observations than estimates based on semivolatile partitioning. The new mechanism represents a significant source of organic carbon in the lower 2 km of the atmosphere and captures the abundance of 2-methyltetrols relative to organosulfates during the simulation period. For the parametrization considered here, a 25% reduction in SOx emissions effectively reduces isoprene aerosol, while a similar reduction in NOx leads to small increases in isoprene aerosol.

Unspeciated organic emissions from combustion sources and their influence on the secondary organic aerosol budget in the United States

Significance Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the atmospheric oxidation of gaseous combustion emissions is an important component of global fine-particle pollution, which influences the Earth’s energy budget and affects human health. However, existing models underpredict the amount of SOA measured in laboratory experiments and in the atmosphere. We analyze smog chamber and emissions data to demonstrate that unspeciated organics in combustion emissions are a major class of SOA precursors. We develop source-specific parameterizations for these emissions using surrogate chemical compounds. We find that unspeciated organics dominate SOA mass formed from combustion emissions in the United States; therefore, unspeciated organics must be included in models to simulate ambient fine particulate matter concentrations. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the atmospheric oxidation of nonmethane organic gases (NMOG) is a major contributor to atmospheric aerosol mass. Emissions and smog chamber experiments were performed to investigate SOA formation from gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, and biomass burning. About 10–20% of NMOG emissions from these major combustion sources are not routinely speciated and therefore are currently misclassified in emission inventories and chemical transport models. The smog chamber data demonstrate that this misclassification biases model predictions of SOA production low because the unspeciated NMOG produce more SOA per unit mass than the speciated NMOG. We present new source-specific SOA yield parameterizations for these unspeciated emissions. These parameterizations and associated source profiles are designed for implementation in chemical transport models. Box model calculations using these new parameterizations predict that NMOG emissions from the top six combustion sources form 0.7 Tg y−1 of first-generation SOA in the United States, almost 90% of which is from biomass burning and gasoline vehicles. About 85% of this SOA comes from unspeciated NMOG, demonstrating that chemical transport models need improved treatment of combustion emissions to accurately predict ambient SOA concentrations.

Nitrate radicals and biogenic volatile organic compounds: oxidation, mechanisms, and organic aerosol

Oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) by the nitrate radical (NO3) represents one of the important interactions between anthropogenic emissions related to combustion and natural emissions from the biosphere. This interaction has been recognized for more than 3 decades, during which time a large body of research has emerged from laboratory, field, and modeling studies. NO3-BVOC reactions influence air quality, climate and visibility through regional and global budgets for reactive nitrogen (particularly organic nitrates), ozone, and organic aerosol. Despite its long history of research and the significance of this topic in atmospheric chemistry, a number of important uncertainties remain. These include an incomplete understanding of the rates, mechanisms, and organic aerosol yields for NO3-BVOC reactions, lack of constraints on the role of heterogeneous oxidative processes associated with the NO3 radical, the difficulty of characterizing the spatial distributions of BVOC and NO3 within the poorly mixed nocturnal atmosphere, and the challenge of constructing appropriate boundary layer schemes and non-photochemical mechanisms for use in state-of-the-art chemical transport and chemistry–climate models. This review is the result of a workshop of the same title held at the Georgia Institute of Technology in June 2015. The first half of the review summarizes the current literature on NO3-BVOC chemistry, with a particular focus on recent advances in instrumentation and models, and in organic nitrate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation chemistry. Building on this current understanding, the second half of the review outlines impacts of NO3-BVOC chemistry on air quality and climate, and suggests critical research needs to better constrain this interaction to improve the predictive capabilities of atmospheric models.

Modeling the Current and Future Roles of Particulate Organic Nitrates in the Southeastern United States

Organic nitrates are an important aerosol constituent in locations where biogenic hydrocarbon emissions mix with anthropogenic NOx sources. While regional and global chemical transport models may include a representation of organic aerosol from monoterpene reactions with nitrate radicals (the primary source of particle-phase organic nitrates in the Southeast United States), secondary organic aerosol (SOA) models can underestimate yields. Furthermore, SOA parametrizations do not explicitly take into account organic nitrate compounds produced in the gas phase. In this work, we developed a coupled gas and aerosol system to describe the formation and subsequent aerosol-phase partitioning of organic nitrates from isoprene and monoterpenes with a focus on the Southeast United States. The concentrations of organic aerosol and gas-phase organic nitrates were improved when particulate organic nitrates were assumed to undergo rapid (τ = 3 h) pseudohydrolysis resulting in nitric acid and nonvolatile secondary organic aerosol. In addition, up to 60% of less oxidized-oxygenated organic aerosol (LO-OOA) could be accounted for via organic nitrate mediated chemistry during the Southern Oxidants and Aerosol Study (SOAS). A 25% reduction in nitrogen oxide (NO + NO2) emissions was predicted to cause a 9% reduction in organic aerosol for June 2013 SOAS conditions at Centreville, Alabama.

Modeling the role of alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and their oligomers in secondary organic aerosol formation.

A computationally efficient method to treat secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from various length and structure alkanes as well as SOA from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict aerosol concentrations over the United States. Oxidation of alkanes is predicted to produce more aerosol than oxidation of PAHs driven by relatively higher alkane emissions. SOA from alkanes and PAHs, although small in magnitude, can be a substantial fraction of the SOA from anthropogenic hydrocarbons, particularly in winter, and could contribute more if emission inventories lack intermediate volatility alkanes (>C(13)) or if the vehicle fleet shifts toward diesel-powered vehicles. The SOA produced from oxidation of alkanes correlates well with ozone and odd oxygen in many locations, but the lower correlation of anthropogenic oligomers with odd oxygen indicates that models may need additional photochemically dependent pathways to low-volatility SOA.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2.5 bias (PM2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NOx (NO + NO2), VOC and SOx (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

On the implications of aerosol liquid water and phase separation for organic aerosol mass

Organic compounds and liquid water are major aerosol constituents in the southeast United States (SE US). Water associated with inorganic constituents (inorganic water) can contribute to the partitioning medium for organic aerosol when relative humidities or organic matter to organic carbon (OM/OC) ratios are high such that separation relative humidities (SRH) are below the ambient relative humidity (RH). As OM/OC ratios in the SE US are often between 1.8 and 2.2, organic aerosol experiences both mixing with inorganic water and separation from it. Regional chemical transport model simulations including inorganic water (but excluding water uptake by organic compounds) in the partitioning medium for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) when RH > SRH led to increased SOA concentrations,· particularly at night. Water uptake to the organic phase resulted in even greater SOA concentrations as a result of a positive feedback in which water uptake increased SOA, which further increased aerosol water and organic aerosol. Aerosol properties· such as the OM/OC and hygroscopicity parameter (κorg), were captured well by the model compared with measurements during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) 2013. Organic nitrates from monoterpene oxidation were predicted to be the least water-soluble semivolatile species in the model, but most biogenically derived semivolatile species in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were highly water soluble and expected to contribute to water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC). Organic aerosol and SOA precursors were abundant at night, but additional improvements in daytime organic aerosol are needed to close the model–measurement gap. When taking into account deviations from ideality, including both inorganic (when RH > SRH) and organic water in the organic partitioning medium reduced the mean bias in SOA for routine monitoring networks and improved model performance compared to observations from SOAS. Property updates from this work will be released in CMAQ v5.2.

Near-Road Modeling and Measurement of Cerium-Containing Particles Generated by Nanoparticle Diesel Fuel Additive Use

Cerium oxide nanoparticles (nCe) are used as a fuel-borne catalyst in diesel engines to reduce particulate emissions, yet the environmental and human health impacts of the exhaust particles are not well understood. To bridge the gap between emission measurements and ambient impacts, size-resolved measurements of particle composition and mass concentration have been performed in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom, where buses have used an nCe additive since 2005. These observations show that the noncrustal cerium fraction thought to be associated with the use of nCe has a mass concentration ∼ 0.3 ng m(-3) with a size distribution peaking at 100-320 nm in aerodynamic diameter. Simulations with a near-roadway multicomponent sectional aerosol dynamic model predict that the use of nCe additives increases the number concentration of nuclei mode particles (<50 nm in diameter) while decreasing the total mass concentration. The near-road model predicts a downwind mass size distribution of cerium-containing particles peaking at 150 nm in aerodynamic diameter, a value similar to that measured for noncrustal cerium in Newcastle. This work shows that both the emission and atmospheric transformation of cerium-containing particles needs to be taken into account by regional modelers, exposure scientists, and policymakers when determining potential environmental and human health impacts.

Simulating Aqueous-Phase Isoprene-Epoxydiol (IEPOX) Secondary Organic Aerosol Production During the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS)

The lack of statistically robust relationships between IEPOX (isoprene epoxydiol)-derived SOA (IEPOX SOA) and aerosol liquid water and pH observed during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) emphasizes the importance of modeling the whole system to understand the controlling factors governing IEPOX SOA formation. We present a mechanistic modeling investigation predicting IEPOX SOA based on Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model algorithms and a recently introduced photochemical box model, simpleGAMMA. We aim to (1) simulate IEPOX SOA tracers from the SOAS Look Rock ground site, (2) compare the two model formulations, (3) determine the limiting factors in IEPOX SOA formation, and (4) test the impact of a hypothetical sulfate reduction scenario on IEPOX SOA. The estimated IEPOX SOA mass variability is in similar agreement (r2 ∼ 0.6) with measurements. Correlations of the estimated and measured IEPOX SOA tracers with observed aerosol surface area (r2 ∼ 0.5-0.7), rate of particle-phase reaction (r2 ∼ 0.4-0.7), and sulfate (r2 ∼ 0.4-0.5) suggest an important role of sulfate in tracer formation via both physical and chemical mechanisms. A hypothetical 25% reduction of sulfate results in ∼70% reduction of IEPOX SOA formation, reaffirming the importance of aqueous phase chemistry in IEPOX SOA production.