Hayley Durnall

Effectiveness of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2012/13 end of season results.

In 2015/16, the influenza season in the United Kingdom was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Virus characterisation indicated the emergence of genetic clusters, with the majority antigenically similar to the current influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain. Mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates show an adjusted VE of 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-64.7) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultations and of 49.1% (95% CI: 9.3-71.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates show levels of protection similar to the 2010/11 season, when this strain was first used in the seasonal vaccine.

Age-specific vaccine effectiveness of seasonal 2010/2011 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccines in preventing influenza in the United Kingdom

An analysis was undertaken to measure age-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2010/11 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (TIV) and monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine (PIV) administered in 2009/2010. The test-negative case-control study design was employed based on patients consulting primary care. Overall TIV effectiveness, adjusted for age and month, against confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 infection was 56% (95% CI 42-66); age-specific adjusted VE was 87% (95% CI 45-97) in <5-year-olds and 84% (95% CI 27-97) in 5- to 14-year-olds. Adjusted VE for PIV was only 28% (95% CI -6 to 51) overall and 72% (95% CI 15-91) in <5-year-olds. For confirmed influenza B infection, TIV effectiveness was 57% (95% CI 42-68) and in 5- to 14-year-olds 75% (95% CI 32-91). TIV provided moderate protection against the main circulating strains in 2010/2011, with higher protection in children. PIV administered during the previous season provided residual protection after 1 year, particularly in the <5 years age group.

Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes.

General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.

Effectiveness of trivalent and pandemic influenza vaccines in England and Wales 2008-2010: results from a cohort study in general practice.

Estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is complicated by various degrees of mismatch between circulating and vaccine strains each season. We carried out a cohort study to estimate VE of trivalent (TIV) and pandemic influenza vaccines (PIV) in preventing various respiratory outcomes among general practice (GP) patients in England and Wales between 2008 and 2010. Dates of consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI), acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI), lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from the patient-level electronic records of the 100 practices enrolled in a national GP network. Dates of vaccination with TIV and PIV were also extracted. Confounders including age, time period and consultation frequency were adjusted for through Poisson regression models. In the winter of 2008/9, adjusted VE of TIV in preventing ILI was 22.3% (95% CI 13.5%, 30.2%). During the 2009/10 winter VE for PIV in preventing ILI was 21.0% (5.3%, 34.0%). The VE for PIV in preventing PCR-confirmed influenza A/H1N1 (2009) was 63.7% (-6.1%, 87.6%). TIV during the period of influenza circulation of 2008/9 and PIV in the winter of 2009/10 were effective in preventing GP consultations for ILI. The cohort study design could be used each season to estimate VE; however, residual confounding by indication could still present issues, despite adjustment for propensity to consult.

Ten lessons for the next influenza pandemic-an English perspective: a personal reflection based on community surveillance data.

We review experience in England of the swine flu pandemic between May 2009 and April 2010. The surveillance data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service and the linked virological data collected in the integrated program with the Health Protection Agency are used as a reference frame to consider issues emerging during the pandemic. Ten lessons are summarized. (1) Delay between illness onset in the first worldwide cases and virological diagnosis restricted opportunities for containment by regional prophylaxis. (2) Pandemic vaccines are unlikely to be available for effective prevention during the first wave of a pandemic. (3) Open, realistic and continuing communication with the public is important. (4) Surveillance programs should be continued through summer as well as winter. (5) Severity of illness should be incorporated in pandemic definition. (6) The reliability of diagnostic tests as used in routine clinical practice calls for further investigation. (7) Evidence from serological studies is not consistent with evidence based on health care requests made by sick persons and is thus of limited value in cost effectiveness studies. (8) Pregnancy is an important risk factor. (9) New strategies for administering vaccines need to be explored. (10) Acceptance by the public and by health professionals of influenza vaccination as the major plank on which the impact of influenza is controlled has still not been achieved.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing medically attended influenza infection in England and Wales during the 2010/2011 season: a primary care-based cohort study.

Estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) are affected by factors such as the strain of the current circulating influenza virus and characteristics of the host.

The use of syndromic surveillance to monitor the incidence of arthropod bites requiring healthcare in England, 2000-2013: a retrospective ecological study.

Climate change experts predict the number of nuisance-biting arthropods in England will increase but there is currently no known surveillance system in place to monitor or assess the public health impact of arthropod bites. This retrospective ecological study utilized arthropod bites requiring healthcare from five national real-time syndromic surveillance systems monitoring general practitioner (GP) consultations (in-hours and out-of-hours), emergency department (ED) attendances and telephone calls to remote advice services to determine baseline incidence in England between 2000 and 2013 and to assess the association between arthropod bites and temperature. During summer months (weeks 20-40) we estimated that arthropod bites contribute a weekly median of ~4000 GP consultations, 750 calls to remote advice services, 700 ED and 1300 GP out-of-hours attendances. In all systems, incidence was highest during summer months compared to the rest of the year. Arthropod bites were positively associated with temperature with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) that ranged between systems from 1·03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·01-1·06] to 1·14 (95% CI 1·11-1·16). Using syndromic surveillance systems we have established and described baseline incidence of arthropod bites and this can now be monitored routinely in real time to assess the impact of extreme weather events and climate change.

Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: informing antiviral prescription and public health response

BACKGROUND Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the onset of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. METHODS An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-confirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. RESULTS National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were able to monitor the subnational impact. CONCLUSIONS Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions.

Virological self-sampling to monitor influenza antiviral susceptibility in a community cohort

Abstract Objective To perform antiviral susceptibility monitoring of treated individuals in the community during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in England. Patients and methods Between 200 and 400 patients were enrolled daily through the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) and issued with a self-sampling kit. Initially, only persons aged 16 and over were eligible, but from 12 November (week 45), self-sampling was extended to include school-age children (5 years and older). All samples received were screened for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 as well as seasonal influenza [A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and influenza B] by a combination of RT–PCR and virus isolation methods. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 RT–PCR-positive samples were screened for the oseltamivir resistance-inducing H275Y substitution, and a subset of samples also underwent phenotypic antiviral susceptibility testing by enzyme inhibition assay. Results We were able to detect virus by RT–PCR in self-taken samples and recovered infectious virus enabling further virological characterization. The majority of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 RT–PCR-positive NPFS samples (n = 1273) were taken after oseltamivir treatment had begun. No reduction in phenotypic susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors was detected, but five cases with minority quasi-species of oseltamivir-resistant virus (an H275Y amino acid substitution in neuraminidase) were detected. Conclusions Self-sampling is a useful tool for community surveillance, particularly for the follow-up of drug-treated patients. The virological study of self-taken samples from the NPFS provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the emergence of oseltamivir resistance in treated individuals with mild illness in the community, a target population that may not be captured by traditional sentinel surveillance schemes.

Self-sampling for community respiratory illness: a new tool for national virological surveillance.

This report aims to evaluate the usefulness of self-sampling as an approach for future national surveillance of emerging respiratory infections by comparing virological data from two parallel surveillance schemes in England. Nasal swabs were obtained via self-administered sampling from consenting adults (≥ 16 years-old) with influenza symptoms who had contacted the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) health line during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Equivalent samples submitted by sentinel general practitioners participating in the national influenza surveillance scheme run jointly by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) and Health Protection Agency were also obtained. When comparable samples were analysed there was no significant difference in results obtained from self-sampling and clinician-led sampling schemes. These results demonstrate that self-sampling can be applied in a responsive and flexible manner, to supplement sentinel clinician-based sampling, to achieve a wide spread and geographically representative way of assessing community transmission of a known organism.