Hee-Seung Yang

Education, Marriage, and Fertility: Long-Term Evidence from a Female Stipend Program in Bangladesh

In 1994, Bangladesh introduced the Female Secondary School Stipend Program that made secondary education free for rural girls. This paper examines the long-term effects of the stipend program on education, marriage, fertility, and labor market outcomes of women. We find that the stipend increased years of education for eligible girls by 14%–25%. These girls were more likely to get married later and have fewer children. They also had more autonomy in making decisions about household purchases, health care, and visiting relatives. They were more likely to work in the formal sector than the agricultural or informal sector. Eligible women were likely to marry more educated husbands who had better occupations and were closer in age to their own. Their children’s health outcomes also improved. These results imply that school-based stipend programs can increase female empowerment through positive effects on schooling and marriage market outcomes over the long term.

Inequality, Risk-Sharing and the Crisis: A View From Australia

The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.

Was Inequality Rising Before or After the Crisis in Australia

The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.

The role of uncertainty in forecasting employment by skill and industry

ABSTRACT We show that the macroeconomic uncertainty series from Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) contains information to forecast employment. The results indicate that the uncertainty measure is weak at forecasting the skilled labour but significantly carries forecasting information on the unskilled labour. The forecasting information increases if the sample is restricted to construction and manufacturing industries. Using rolling regressions to conduct a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the uncertainty measure contains forecasting information for the unskilled labour in those industries for two quarters ahead. By providing detailed information about the forecasting power of uncertainty by skill and industry, this study will be helpful in designing more efficient labour market policies.

Has Australian Inequality Risen of Late? Stylized Facts on Multidimensional Inequality

The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.

Multidimensional Inequality, Risk-Sharing and the Crisis: A View from Australia

The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.The Australian economy escaped the 2007-2009 crisis, making it unique among OECD countries. To understand why, we document Australian household inequality cross-sectional stylized facts from 2001-2012 using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Inequality of individual wages, hours worked and earnings remains flat. Household pre-government income inequality and non-durable consumption inequality decline slightly. Household income inequality exceeds non-durable and food consumption inequality during the global financial crisis, suggesting that households partially insure income shocks. The degree of progressivity and private intermediation of risk are high. Both equivalized net financial wealth and net total wealth inequality remain relatively flat. Taxes and transfers seem to reduce the variance of permanent income shocks, rather than transitory income shocks. Our findings suggest that on average households withstood the crisis, by insuring against wealth and income shocks.

Unveiling Business Cycle Properties of Occupational Employment Using Consistent Data of Occupations

A significant obstacle to studying business cycle properties of job polarization has been the presence of inconsistencies in aggregate employment data for different occupation groups. In order to overcome this problem, we construct aggregate hours series using the method of conversion factors, which was originally developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After showing that our data outperform previously available data in terms of consistency, we analyze two business cycle properties of job polarization that have not yet been studied before: (1) the changes in volatility of employment of each occupation group since the mid-1980s and (2) the asymmetric effects of recessions on employment of different occupation groups. We find that employment volatility of middle-skill occupations has decreased by 40% since the mid-1980s due to jobless recoveries observed in the last three recessions.The business cycle properties of occupational employment have not yet been extensively explored because of inconsistencies in the aggregate employment series by occupation. Using consistent aggregate hours data constructed through the method of “conversion factors,�? which was developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, we provide new empirical facts on the cyclical behaviors of occupational employment and discuss their implications. First, employment of the middle-skill occupation group is negatively affected by a technology shock, while those of high-skill and low-skill groups are positively correlated with it. Second, it is the middle-skill group that experiences the largest decline in employment volatility after the mid-1980s. Last, recessions since the 1980s have heterogenous impacts on different occupations, defining the characteristics of each recession. We further discuss the value of having consistent employment data in studies of business cycles.

New Stylized Facts on Occupational Employment and Their Implications: Evidence from Consistent Data

A significant obstacle to studying business cycle properties of job polarization has been the presence of inconsistencies in aggregate employment data for different occupation groups. In order to overcome this problem, we construct aggregate hours series using the method of conversion factors, which was originally developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After showing that our data outperform previously available data in terms of consistency, we analyze two business cycle properties of job polarization that have not yet been studied before: (1) the changes in volatility of employment of each occupation group since the mid-1980s and (2) the asymmetric effects of recessions on employment of different occupation groups. We find that employment volatility of middle-skill occupations has decreased by 40% since the mid-1980s due to jobless recoveries observed in the last three recessions.The business cycle properties of occupational employment have not yet been extensively explored because of inconsistencies in the aggregate employment series by occupation. Using consistent aggregate hours data constructed through the method of “conversion factors,�? which was developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, we provide new empirical facts on the cyclical behaviors of occupational employment and discuss their implications. First, employment of the middle-skill occupation group is negatively affected by a technology shock, while those of high-skill and low-skill groups are positively correlated with it. Second, it is the middle-skill group that experiences the largest decline in employment volatility after the mid-1980s. Last, recessions since the 1980s have heterogenous impacts on different occupations, defining the characteristics of each recession. We further discuss the value of having consistent employment data in studies of business cycles.

The Long-Term Effect of Abortion Legalization on the Demand for Pets

This paper examines whether abortion legalization in the United States during the early 1970s influenced women’s demand for pets later in life. We compare women who were granted early access to legal abortion during their peak childbearing years to women who were not in order to estimate their likelihood of pet ownership and time spent on pets after the women’s childbearing years were over. We find that the probability of owning any pet is approximately nine percentage points higher for women affected by abortion legalization than for non-affected women, and that the affected women spend, on average, seven minutes more per day on their pets.