Heidi L. Williams

Intellectual Property Rights and Innovation: Evidence from the Human Genome

Do intellectual property (IP) rights on existing technologies hinder subsequent innovation? Using newly collected data on the sequencing of the human genome by the public Human Genome Project and the private firm Celera, this paper estimates the impact of Celera’s gene-level IP on subsequent innovation. Across a range of empirical specifications, I document evidence that Celera’s IP led to reductions in subsequent scientific research and product development on the order of 20–30 percent. These results suggest that Celera’s short-term IP had persistent negative effects on subsequent innovation relative to a counterfactual of Celera genes having always been in the public domain.

Incentivizing Innovation: Adding to the Tool Kit

Intellectual property rights (IPR) create incentives for research but impose static efficiency losses and other costs. In this essay, we discuss recent proposals of other mechanisms for rewarding innovation and argue that incremental experimentation with mechanisms that supplement rather than replace IPR can help to test and refine these mechanisms without undermining existing institutions. Prizes, such as those recently offered by the X‐Prize Foundation, have been successful in spurring research but have typically targeted demonstration projects rather than innovations capable of being used at scale. To spur the creation of products for widespread use, the design of prizes could be usefully extended by conditioning rewards on a market test, as in the recent

Sources of Geographic Variation in Health Care: Evidence From Patient Migration

1.5 billion pilot Advance Market Commitment (AMC) for a pneumococcus vaccine.

Creating Markets for Vaccines

We study the drivers of geographic variation in US health care utilization, using an empirical strategy that exploits migration of Medicare patients to separate the role of demand and supply factors. Our approach allows us to account for demand differences driven by both observable and unobservable patient characteristics. Within our sample of over-65 Medicare beneficiaries, we find that 40-50 percent of geographic variation in utilization is attributable to demand-side factors, including health and preferences, with the remainder due to place-specific supply factors. JEL: H51, I1, I11.

Advance Market Commitments: A Policy to Stimulate Investment in Vaccines for Neglected Diseases

countries. Relative to the social need, there is a dearth of research and development (RD if a desired vaccine is developed, an advance purchase commitment would be an extremely costeffective expenditure from a public health perspective, saving more lives than virtually any comparable health expenditure. Rachel Glennerster, Michael Kremer, and Heidi Williams

How Do Patents Affect Follow-On Innovation? Evidence from the Human Genome

Why are millions dying of neglected diseases without vaccines, and is there a way to cheaply change that? Owen Barder, Michael Kremer and Heidi Williams advocate a proposal--Advance Market Commitments--that the G8 finance ministers plan to pilot in 2006.

Adjusting Risk Adjustment — Accounting for Variation in Diagnostic Intensity

We investigate whether patents on human genes have affected follow-on scientific research and product development. Using administrative data on successful and unsuccessful patent applications submitted to the US Patent and Trademark Office, we link the exact gene sequences claimed in each application with data measuring follow-on scientific research and commercial investments. Using this data, we document novel evidence of selection into patenting: patented genes appear more valuable—prior to being patented—than non-patented genes. This evidence of selection motivates two quasi-experimental approaches, both of which suggest that on average gene patents have had no quantitatively important effect on follow-on innovation.

Advance Market Commitments for Vaccines Working Paper and Spread Sheet

Differences in Medicare patients’ reported diagnoses partly reflect their providers’ proclivity for making diagnoses. Proposed risk-adjustment factors could allow payments and performance measures to be scaled to counteract regional differences in diagnostic intensity.

Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-risk Newborns

The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an “advance market commitment,” one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.