Heidrun Feuchtmayr

Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe: a primer for policy-makers.

Abstract Earths climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species-based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems (erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes) in three broad zones of Europe (Mediterranean, Central and Arctic-Boreal) is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy-making.

Response of macroinvertebrates to warming, nutrient addition and predation in large-scale mesocosm tanks

There is increasing concern about the effect of climate change on aquatic systems. We examined changes in macroinvertebrate communities caused by increased temperature (3°C above ambient during summer only and continuous 3°C above ambient all year round), influences of fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) and addition of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in 48 large-scale (3000 1) tanks over a 2 year period. While numbers of Isopoda, Chaoborus, Corixidae, Ephemeroptera, Notonectidae and Odonata were reduced by the presence of fish, nutrient addition caused isopods, corixids, mayflies and odonates to increase in abundance. Impacts of temperature increase were surprisingly low, with only gastropods increasing in heated tanks, suggesting that, overall abundances of most macroinvertebrate taxa will not be severely affected by the predicted temperature rise. To determine if taxa were sampled representatively during the experiment, net sweep samples taken towards the end of the experiment were compared with final macroinvertebrate abundances when the complete contents of each tank were harvested. We found that net sweeping is an appropriate semi-quantitative method for most taxa in mesocosm tanks. However, mites, coleopteran adults and larvae, dipterans and Chaoborus were not adequately sampled. This might explain why we could not detect any treatment effects of temperature, fish or nutrients on mites, coleopterans and dipterans and calls for different sampling techniques for these taxa, especially in ponds with vegetation stands.

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

A comparison of the diel variability in epilimnetic temperature for five lakes in the English Lake District

Abstract High temporal resolution temperature measurements were analysed for 5 neighbouring lakes in the English Lake District to assess how the diel range in epilimnetic temperature varied among the lakes. These lakes experience the same climate but differ morphometrically, allowing lake-specific drivers of diel variability to be determined. The magnitude of the diel temperature cycle was calculated as the difference between the measured maximum and minimum daily epilimnetic temperature. Our analysis demonstrated that the magnitude of the diel temperature cycle was primarily influenced by the depth of the upper mixed layer. The magnitude of the diel temperature cycle was lowest for the largest lake, Windermere South Basin, which varied by approximately half that of the smallest lake, Blelham Tarn. A significant correlation between the diel temperature range and lake area was observed in the summer months caused by the larger lakes typically experiencing higher wind speeds, which in turn lead to greater mixing depths and thus to a lower diel temperature range. Water temperature has a major effect on lake biology and biogeochemistry, so it is important to recognise its variability in different lake types.

A novel method for estimating the onset of thermal stratification in lakes from surface water measurements

High-frequency surface water temperature measurements were analyzed for 17 annual data series from seven lakes to assess whether the onset of thermal stratification can be determined from time series of surface water temperature measurements alone. Current methods for estimating the start of thermal stratification require depth-resolved temperature measurements, whereas many existing high-frequency measurements are often limited only to the lake surface. In this study, we show that the magnitude of the diel surface water temperature range can be used to estimate the onset of thermal stratification. We assess the accuracy of using the diel range as an estimate of the onset of thermal stratification by applying two methods based on the calculation of (1) the absolute difference in the diel surface temperature range and (2) the magnitude of the diel range from wavelet analysis. Our study shows that the onset of thermal stratification can be accurately estimated by wavelet analysis with a root mean square error of 2.1 days and by the observed diel temperature range method with a root mean square error of 11.8 days. This approach enables existing, and future, high-resolution surface water data sets to be used to estimate the onset of lake stratification. Furthermore, the continuously increasing observational powers of satellites may eventually result in surface water temperature being measured at a sufficiently high temporal resolution at the spatial scales of small lakes to allow the onset of thermal stratification to be estimated remotely.

The contribution of algae to freshwater dissolved organic matter: implications for UV spectroscopic analysis

Abstract Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important constituent of freshwater that participates in a number of key ecological and biogeochemical processes but can be problematic during water treatment. Thus, the demand for rapid and reliable monitoring is growing, and spectroscopic methods are potentially useful. A model with 3 components—2 that absorb in the ultraviolet (UV) range and are present at variable concentrations and a third that does not absorb light and is present at a low constant concentration—was previously found to yield reliable predictions of dissolved organic carbon concentration [DOC]. The model underestimated [DOC] in shallow eutrophic lakes in the Yangtze Basin, China, however, raising the possibility that DOM derived from algae might be poorly estimated, an idea supported by new data reported here for eutrophic British lakes. We estimated the extinction coefficients in the UV range of algae-derived DOM from published data on algal cultures and from new data from outdoor mesocosm experiments in which high concentrations of DOC were generated under conditions comparable to those in eutrophic freshwaters. The results demonstrate the weak UV absorbance of DOM from algae compared to DOM from terrestrial sources. A modified model, in which the third component represents algae-derived DOM present at variable concentrations, allowed contributions of such DOM to be estimated by combining the spectroscopic data with [DOC] measured by laboratory combustion. Estimated concentrations of algae-derived DOC in 77 surface freshwater samples ranged from 0 to 8.6 mg L−1, and the fraction of algae-derived DOM ranged from 0% to 100%.

Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities

The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species.