Hein van Gils

Forecasting the pattern and pace of Fagus forest expansion in Majella National Park, Italy

ABSTRACT Question: Can the pattern and pace of spontaneous Fagus forest expansion from 1975 to 2003 be accurately detected with mid-resolution satellite imagery? Can the historical Fagus expansion be modelled on the basis of environmental predictors? If so, where are the highest probabilities for future Fagus expansion? What are the implications for park management? Location: Majella National Park, Italy, > 1000 m a.s.l.; municipalities of S. Eufemia and Pacentro. Methods: Fagus cover change was detected by overlaying three classified sequential satellite images. Historical Fagus expansion was related to environmental variables using ordinary logistic and autologistic regression models. Fagus expansion probabilities were generated with the best predictive model. Results: From 1975 to 2003 Fagus advanced into abandoned farmland and subalpine pastures from the contiguous, mid-altitudinal Fagus forest and from Fagus outliers, at a rate of 1.2 % per year. Substantial spatial and temporal variations in expansion rates were detected. The ordinary and autologistic models based on the single predictor Distance-from-Fagus-1975 forecasted the Fagus expansion well (AUC 0.81 resp. 0.88). Multiple logistic models, including the topo-climatic and substrate predictors, improved prediction insignificantly. The strong predictive power of proximity to historical Fagus presence is explained by the dispersal biology of Fagus combined with the shading impact of the Fagus canopy at the forest fringe. Conclusion: Decade-long Fagus expansion patterns might be reliably forecasted by proximity to historical Fagus distribution. Consequences for park management options are outlined. Nomenclature: Pignatti (1982).ABSTRACT Question: Can the pattern and pace of spontaneous Fagus forest expansion from 1975 to 2003 be accurately detected with mid-resolution satellite imagery? Can the historical Fagus expansion be modelled on the basis of environmental predictors? If so, where are the highest probabilities for future Fagus expansion? What are the implications for park management? Location: Majella National Park, Italy, > 1000 m a.s.l.; municipalities of S. Eufemia and Pacentro. Methods: Fagus cover change was detected by overlaying three classified sequential satellite images. Historical Fagus expansion was related to environmental variables using ordinary logistic and autologistic regression models. Fagus expansion probabilities were generated with the best predictive model. Results: From 1975 to 2003 Fagus advanced into abandoned farmland and subalpine pastures from the contiguous, mid-altitudinal Fagus forest and from Fagus outliers, at a rate of 1.2 % per year. Substantial spatial and temporal variations in expansi...

Identifying transit corridors for elephant using a long time-series

The role of corridors in mitigating the effects of landscape fragmentation on biodiversity is controversial. Recent studies have highlighted the need for new approaches in corridor design using long-term datasets. We present a method to identify transit corridors for elephant at a population scale over a large area and an extended period of time using long-term aerial surveys. We investigated environmental and anthropogenic factors directly and indirectly related to the wet versus dry season distribution of elephant and its transit corridors. Four environmental variables predicted the presence of elephant at the landscape scale in both seasons: distance from permanent water, protected areas and settlements and vegetation structure. Path analysis revealed that altitude and monthly average NDVI, and distance from temporary water had a significant indirect effect on elephant distribution at local scale in dry and wet seasons respectively. Five transit corridors connecting Tarangire National Park and the northern as well as south-eastern wet season dispersal areas were identified and matched the wildlife migration routes described in the 1960s. The corridors are stable over the decades, providing landscape connectivity for elephant. Our approach yielded insights how advanced spatial analysis can be integrated with biological data available from long-term datasets to identify actual transit corridors and predictors of species distribution.

Smallholder Farms as Stepping Stone Corridors for Crop-Raiding Elephant in Northern Tanzania: Integration of Bayesian Expert System and Network Simulator

Crop-raiding elephants affect local livelihoods, undermining conservation efforts. Yet, crop-raiding patterns are poorly understood, making prediction and protection difficult. We hypothesized that raiding elephants use corridors between daytime refuges and farmland. Elephant counts, crop-raiding records, household surveys, Bayesian expert system, and least-cost path simulation were used to predict four alternative categories of daily corridors: (1) footpaths, (2) dry river beds, (3) stepping stones along scattered small farms, and (4) trajectories of shortest distance to refuges. The corridor alignments were compared in terms of their minimum cumulative resistance to elephant movement and related to crop-raiding zones quantified by a kernel density function. The “stepping stone” corridors predicted the crop-raiding patterns. Elephant presence was confirmed along these corridors, demonstrating that small farms located between refuges and contiguous farmland increase habitat connectivity for elephant. Our analysis successfully predicted elephant occurrence in farmland where daytime counts failed to detect nocturnal presence. These results have conservation management implications.

Reduced Dependence of Crested Ibis on Winter-Flooded Rice Fields: Implications for Their Conservation

The Crested Ibis Nipponia nippon was once thought to be extinct in the wild until seven birds were discovered in a remote mountain village in China in 1981. Studies suggested that winter-flooded rice fields play an essential role in nest site selection by the Crested Ibis and hence in their survival. Considerable efforts were therefore made to conserve the winter-flooded rice fields, but these have caused conflicts between the agricultural and conservation communities. The population and geographical range of the wild Crested Ibis has expanded greatly since 1981, but there is no spatial information on the winter-flooded rice fields, nor on the current association of nest sites and winter-flooded rice fields. We mapped winter-flooded rice fields across the entire current range of Crested Ibis using innovative remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) techniques. The spatial relationships between the nest site clusters and winter-flooded rice fields were quantified using Wards hierarchical clustering method and Ripleys K-function. We show that both have significantly clumped distribution patterns and that they are positively associated. However, the dependence of Crested Ibis on the winter-flooded rice fields varied significantly among the nest site clusters and has decreased over the years, indicating the absence of winter-flooded rice fields is not constraining their recovery and population expansion. We therefore recommend that efforts should be made to protect the existing winter-flooded rice fields and to restore the functionality of natural and semi-natural wetlands, to encourage both in-situ conservation and the re-introduction of the Crested Ibis. In addition, we recommend that caution should be exercised when interpreting the habitat requirements of species with a narrow distribution, particularly when that interpretation is based only on their current habitat.

Shrimp pond effluent dominates foliar nitrogen in disturbed mangroves as mapped using hyperspectral imagery

Conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds creates fragmentation and eutrophication. Detection of the spatial variation of foliar nitrogen is essential for understanding the effect of eutrophication on mangroves. We aim (i) to estimate nitrogen variability across mangrove landscapes of the Mahakam delta using airborne hyperspectral remote sensing (HyMap) and (ii) to investigate links between the variation of foliar nitrogen mapped and local environmental variables. In this study, multivariate prediction models achieved a higher level of accuracy than narrow-band vegetation indices, making multivariate modeling the best choice for mapping. The variation of foliar nitrogen concentration in mangroves was significantly influenced by the local environment: (1) position of mangroves (seaward/landward), (2) distance to the shrimp ponds, and (3) predominant mangrove species. The findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbances, in this case shrimp ponds, influence nitrogen variation in mangroves. Mangroves closer to the shrimp ponds had higher foliar nitrogen concentrations.

Eutrophication of mangroves linked to depletion of foliar and soil base cations

There is growing concern that increasing eutrophication causes degradation of coastal ecosystems. Studies in terrestrial ecosystems have shown that increasing the concentration of nitrogen in soils contributes to the acidification process, which leads to leaching of base cations. To test the effects of eutrophication on the availability of base cations in mangroves, we compared paired leaf and soil nutrient levels sampled in Nypa fruticans and Rhizophora spp. on a severely disturbed, i.e. nutrient loaded, site (Mahakam delta) with samples from an undisturbed, near-pristine site (Berau delta) in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The findings indicate that under pristine conditions, the availability of base cations in mangrove soils is determined largely by salinity. Anthropogenic disturbances on the Mahakam site have resulted in eutrophication, which is related to lower levels of foliar and soil base cations. Path analysis suggests that increasing soil nitrogen reduces soil pH, which in turn reduces the levels of foliar and soil base cations in mangroves.

Pinus mugo Krummholz Dynamics During Concomitant Change in Pastoralism and Climate in the Central Apennines

The dynamics of Pinus mugo krummholz during concomitant change in pastoral land use and climate in central Italy since the mid-20th century was investigated. Krummholz dynamics were detected using sequential aerial photography and fitted to a logistic regression model with elevation, grazing, proximity to beech forest, and proximity to krummholz as explanatory variables. Dendrochronological series were correlated with temperature and precipitation and fitted to a linear model. During this period krummholz doubled in extent and migrated 35–65 m upslope. Expansion was positively associated with krummholz proximity, residual pastoral grazing, and proximity to beech forest beyond 10 m and negatively associated with elevation and beech forest closer than 10 m. The logistic regression model forecasts krummholz migration by an additional 30 m upslope by 2060. During the 20th century, winter and spring minimum temperatures increased but did not result in increased radial stem growth of P. mugo. The combined evidence suggests that krummholz dynamics can be explained by the legacy of summer pastoralism and the dispersal limitations of P. mugo, rather than by climate change.