Helen B. Hubert

AGING, HEALTH RISKS, AND CUMULATIVE DISABILITY

BACKGROUND Persons with lower health risks tend to live longer than those with higher health risks, but there has been concern that greater longevity may bring with it greater disability. We performed a longitudinal study to determine whether persons with lower potentially modifiable health risks have more or less cumulative disability. METHODS We studied 1741 university alumni who were surveyed first in 1962 (average age, 43 years) and then annually starting in 1986. Strata of high, moderate, and low risk were defined on the basis of smoking, body-mass index, and exercise patterns. Cumulative disability was determined with a health-assessment questionnaire and scored on a scale of 0 to 3. Cumulative disability from 1986 to 1994 (average age in 1994, 75 years) or death was the measure of lifetime disability. RESULTS Persons with high health risks in 1962 or 1986 had twice the cumulative disability of those with low health risks (disability index, 1.02 vs. 0.49; P<0.001). The results were consistent among survivors, subjects who died, men, and women and for both the last year and the last two years of observation. The onset of disability was postponed by more than five years in the low-risk group as compared with the high-risk group. The disability index for the low-risk subjects who died was half that for the high-risk subjects in the last one or two years of observation. CONCLUSIONS Smoking, body-mass index, and exercise patterns in midlife and late adulthood are predictors of subsequent disability. Not only do persons with better health habits survive longer, but in such persons, disability is postponed and compressed into fewer years at the end of life.

Toward an Epidemiology of Gastropathy Associated With Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drug Use

The thesis of this paper is that gastropathy associated with nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is the most frequent and, in aggregate, the most severe drug side effect in the United States. This work is based on a consecutive series of 2400 patients with rheumatoid arthritis followed prospectively for an average of 3.5 yr by ARAMIS, the American Rheumatism Association Medical Information System. We present a preliminary exploration of the magnitude of the problem, the population at risk, and the patients within that population who are at particularly high risk. Patients on NSAIDs had a hazard ratio for gastrointestinal (GI) hospitalization that was 6.45 times that of patients not on NSAIDs. Characteristically, high-risk patients for GI hospitalization and GI death are older, have had previous upper abdominal pain, have previously stopped NSAIDs for GI side effects, and have previously used antacids or H2-receptor antagonists for GI side effects. They also are frequently on corticosteroids. In contrast, patients attributing relatively minor symptoms to the drug tend to be younger and more frequently female. Our preliminary analysis is univariate and, as these variables are interdependent, firm conclusions regarding the relative importance of these risk factors will require reevaluating our data base as it is expanded using multivariate analysis. The syndrome of NSAID-associated gastropathy can be estimated to account for at least 2600 deaths and 20,000 hospitalizations each year in patients with rheumatoid arthritis alone.

Gender differences in physical disability among an elderly cohort.

OBJECTIVES We analyzed the role of sociodemographic factors, chronic-disease risk factors, and health conditions in explaining gender differences in disability among senior citizens. METHODS We compared 1348 men and women (mean age = 79 years) on overall disability and compared their specific activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility limitations. Analysis of covariance adjusted for possible explanatory factors. RESULTS Women were more likely to report limitations, use of assistance, and a greater degree of disability, particularly among IADL categories. However, these gender differences were largely explained by differences in disability-related health conditions. CONCLUSIONS Greater prevalence of nonfatal disabling conditions, including fractures, osteoporosis, back problems, osteoarthritis and depression, contributes substantially to greater disability and diminished quality of life among aging women compared with men.

Reduced Disability and Mortality Among Aging Runners: A 21-Year Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND Exercise has been shown to improve many health outcomes and well-being of people of all ages. Long-term studies in older adults are needed to confirm disability and survival benefits of exercise. METHODS Annual self-administered questionnaires were sent to 538 members of a nationwide running club and 423 healthy controls from northern California who were 50 years and older beginning in 1984. Data included running and exercise frequency, body mass index, and disability assessed by the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI; scored from 0 [no difficulty] to 3 [unable to perform]) through 2005. A total of 284 runners and 156 controls completed the 21-year follow-up. Causes of death through 2003 were ascertained using the National Death Index. Multivariate regression techniques compared groups on disability and mortality. RESULTS At baseline, runners were younger, leaner, and less likely to smoke compared with controls. The mean (SD) HAQ-DI score was higher for controls than for runners at all time points and increased with age in both groups, but to a lesser degree in runners (0.17 [0.34]) than in controls (0.36 [0.55]) (P < .001). Multivariate analyses showed that runners had a significantly lower risk of an HAQ-DI score of 0.5 (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.84). At 19 years, 15% of runners had died compared with 34% of controls. After adjustment for covariates, runners demonstrated a survival benefit (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.82). Disability and survival curves continued to diverge between groups after the 21-year follow-up as participants approached their ninth decade of life. CONCLUSION Vigorous exercise (running) at middle and older ages is associated with reduced disability in later life and a notable survival advantage.

Long Distance Running and Knee Osteoarthritis A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND Prior studies of the relationship of physical activity to osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee have shown mixed results. The objective of this study was to determine if differences in the progression of knee OA in middle- to older-aged runners exist when compared with healthy nonrunners over nearly 2 decades of serial radiographic observation. METHODS Forty-five long-distance runners and 53 controls with a mean age of 58 (range 50-72) years in 1984 were studied through 2002 with serial knee radiographs. Radiographic scores were two-reader averages for Total Knee Score (TKS) by modified Kellgren & Lawrence methods. TKS progression and the number of knees with severe OA were compared between runners and controls. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between runner versus control status and radiographic outcomes using age, gender, BMI, education, and initial radiographic and disability scores among covariates. RESULTS Most subjects showed little initial radiographic OA (6.7% of runners and 0 controls); however, by the end of the study runners did not have more prevalent OA (20 vs 32%, p =0.25) nor more cases of severe OA (2.2% vs 9.4%, p=0.21) than did controls. Regression models found higher initial BMI, initial radiographic damage, and greater time from initial radiograph to be associated with worse radiographic OA at the final assessment; no significant associations were seen with gender, education, previous knee injury, or mean exercise time. CONCLUSIONS Long-distance running among healthy older individuals was not associated with accelerated radiographic OA. These data raise the possibility that severe OA may not be more common among runners.

Lifestyle risk factors predict disability and death in healthy aging adults.

BACKGROUND Associations between modifiable health risk factors during middle age with disability and mortality in later life are critical to maximizing longevity while preserving function. Positive health effects of maintenance of normal weight, routine exercise, and nonsmoking are known for the short and intermediate term. We studied the effects of these risk factors into advanced age. METHODS A cohort of 2327 college alumnae aged 60 years or more was followed annually (1986-2005) by questionnaires addressing health risk factors, history, and Health Assessment Questionnaire disability. Mortality data were ascertained from the National Death Index. Low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were created on the basis of the number (0, 1, ≥2) of health risk factors (overweight, smoking, inactivity) at baseline. Disability and mortality for each group were estimated from unadjusted data and regression analyses. Multivariable survival analyses estimated time to disability or death. RESULTS The medium- and high-risk groups had higher disability than the low-risk group throughout the study (P<.001). Low-risk subjects had onset of moderate disability delayed 8.3 years compared with high-risk subjects. Mortality rates were higher in the high-risk group (384 vs 247 per 10,000 person-years). Multivariable survival analyses showed the number of risk factors to be associated with cumulative disability and increased mortality. CONCLUSION Seniors with fewer behavioral risk factors during middle age have lower disability and improved survival. These data document that the associations of lifestyle risk factors on health continue into the ninth decade.

Ethnicity and mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus in the US

Objective: To study ethnic differences in mortality from systemic lupus erythematosus (lupus) in two large, population-based datasets. Methods: We analysed the national death data (1979–98) from the National Center for Health Statistics (Hyattsville, Maryland, USA) and hospitalisation data (1993–2002) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), the largest hospitalisation database in the US. Results: The overall, unadjusted, lupus mortality in the National Center for Health Statistics data was 4.6 per million, whereas the proportion of in-hospital mortality from the NIS was 2.9%. African-Americans had disproportionately higher mortality risk than Caucasians (all-cause mortality relative risk adjusted for age = 1.24 (women), 1.36 (men); lupus mortality relative risk = 3.91 (women), 2.40 (men)). Excess risk was found among in-hospital deaths (odds ratio adjusted for age = 1.4 (women), 1.3 (men)). Lupus death rates increased overall from 1979 to 98 (p<0.001). The proportional increase was greatest among African-Americans. Among Caucasian men, death rates declined significantly (p<0.001), but rates did not change substantially for African-American men. The African-American:Caucasian mortality ratio rose with time among men, but there was little change among women. In analyses of the NIS data adjusted for age, the in-hospital mortality risk decreased with time among Caucasian women (p<0.001). Conclusions: African-Americans with lupus have 2–3-fold higher lupus mortality risk than Caucasians. The magnitude of the risk disparity is disproportionately higher than the disparity in all-cause mortality. A lupus-specific biological factor, as opposed to socioeconomic and access-to-care factors, may be responsible for this phenomenon.

Running, osteoarthritis, and bone density: Initial 2-year longitudinal study

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to present the 2-year follow-up results examining associations of repetitive long-term physical impact (running) with osteoarthritis and osteoporosis in 34 members of a running club now aged 52 to 74 years and 34 matched control subjects. PATIENTS AND METHODS Roentgenograms of the hands, lateral lumbar spine, and knees were assessed in pairs (1984 and 1986) without knowledge of running status. Computerized scans of the first lumbar vertebrae were obtained to quantify bone mineral. RESULTS A decrease in bone density over the 2-year period was statistically significant for nearly all subjects, especially for runners who decreased their running habits. At the 2-year follow-up, runners maintained greater bone density. Progression of the roentgenographic scores for osteoarthritis demonstrated a statistically significant increase in almost all groups in this normative population over the 2-year period. Female runners had more spur formation in the weight-bearing knee roentgenograms than did control subjects. CONCLUSION With the possible exception of spur formation in women, running did not appear to influence the development of radiologic osteoarthritis in the populations studied.

Propensity-adjusted association of methotrexate with overall survival in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE While medications used to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may affect survival in RA, few studies take into account the propensity for medication use, which may reflect selection bias in treatment allocation in survival models. We undertook this study to examine the relationship between methotrexate (MTX) use and mortality in RA, after controlling for individual propensity scores for MTX use. METHODS We studied 5,626 RA patients prospectively for 25 years to determine the risk of death associated with MTX use, modeled in time-varying Cox regression models. We used the random forest method to generate individual propensity scores for MTX use at study entry and during followup in a time-varying manner; these scores were included in the multivariate model. We also investigated whether selective discontinuation of MTX immediately prior to death altered the risk of mortality, and we examined the association of duration of MTX use with survival. RESULTS During followup, 666 patients (12%) died. MTX use was associated with reduced risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.30 [95% confidence interval 0.09-1.03]). Selective MTX cessation immediately before death did not account for the protective association of MTX use with mortality. Only MTX use for >1 year was associated with lower risks of mortality, but associations were not stronger with longer durations of use. CONCLUSION MTX use was associated with a 70% reduction in mortality in RA.

Predictors of physical disability after age 50: Six-year longitudinal study in a runners club and a university population

Predictors of disability were studied over 6 years among 50- to 80-year-old members of a runners club (N = 407) and a university population (N = 299). Data have been collected annually since 1984 on sociodemographic characteristics, health habits, medical history, medication use, family history, psychological parameters, and physical disability as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire. Members of the runners club, compared to university participants, had better overall health and less disability at baseline (0.03 versus 0.08) and at 6-year follow-up (0.04 versus 0.24). Predictors of greater subsequent disability among university participants were greater baseline disability, greater medication use, greater number of pack-years of cigarette smoking, older age, being unmarried, higher blood pressure, history of arthritis, and less physical activity compared to ones peers. In addition, changes in characteristics during follow-up that were independently associated with greater disability were development of joint pain, arthritis, or bone fracture and increased body mass index. Predictors of greater disability in the runners group included greater baseline disability, being a nonrunner at baseline, greater dietary salt intake, more years of running at baseline, and greater frequency of physician visits for running injuries. Greater disability in this group also was associated with increases in medication use, declining alcohol consumption, and development of joint pain over 6 years. Results of this study suggest that physical disability is linked to a constellation of characteristics, health habits, medical history, comorbidities, and marital status. While self-selection bias cannot be ruled out entirely, these data are consistent with the hypothesis that those who engage in high levels of physical activity beyond middle age will continue to maintain better functional abilities.