Hendrik P. van Dalen

What makes a scientific article influential? The case of demographers

In this paper we examine, by means of a citation analysis, which factors influence the impactof articles published in demography journals between 1990 and 1992. Several quantifiablecharacteristics of the articles (characteristics with respect to authors, visibility, content andjournals) are strongly related to their subsequent impact in the social sciences. Articles are mostfrequently cited when they deal with empirical, ahistorical research focusing on populations in thedeveloped world, when they are prominently placed in a journal issue, when they are written inEnglish and when they appear in core demography journals. Furthermore, although eminentscholars are likely to be cited on the basis of their reputation, the effect of reputation appears to besmall in demography.

Signals in Science - on the Importance of Signaling in Gaining Attention in Science

Which signals are important in gaining attention in science? For a group of 1,371 scientific articles published in 17 demography journals in the years 1990-1992 we track their influence and discern which signals are important in receiving citations. Three types of signals are examined: the author’s reputation (as producer of the idea), the journal (as the broker of the idea), and the state of uncitedness (as an indication of the assessment by the scientific community of an idea). The empirical analysis points out that, first, the reputation of journals plays an overriding role in gaining attention in science. Second, in contrast to common wisdom, the state of uncitedness does not affect the future probability of being cited. And third, the reputation of a journal may help to get late recognition (so-called ‘sleeping beauties’) as well as generate so-called ‘flash-in-the-pans’: immediately noted articles but apparently not very influential in the long run.

Intended and unintended consequences of a publish-or-perish culture: A worldwide survey

How does publication pressure in modern-day universities affect the intrinsic and extrinsic rewards in science? By using a worldwide survey among demographers in developed and developing countries, the authors show that the large majority perceive the publication pressure as high, but more so in Anglo-Saxon countries and to a lesser extent in Western Europe. However, scholars see both the pros (upward mobility) and cons (excessive publication and uncitedness, neglect of policy issues, etc.) of the so-called publish-or-perish culture. By measuring behavior in terms of reading and publishing, and perceived extrinsic rewards and stated intrinsic rewards of practicing science, it turns out that publication pressure negatively affects the orientation of demographers towards policy and knowledge sharing. There are no signs that the pressure affects reading and publishing outside the core discipline.

Early retirement reform: Can it work? Will it work?

Early retirement from the labour force has become standard practice for most employees in the industrialised world. However, as a result of the rising costs of early-retirement schemes, curbing the outflow of older workers from the labour force has become a central government policy objective. Early-retirement reforms under which benefits are financed on a more actuarially neutral basis are currently being implemented in The Netherlands. At present it is not clear how older workers will react to these policy reforms. In this article we examine the extent to which (Dutch) older workers are inclined to change their retirement intentions in response to new early-retirement arrangements. On the basis of a labour market and a population survey we examine retirement intentions under alternative early-retirement policies. The overall conclusion is that the retirement reform may lead to a substantial delay of the retirement date, but that in practice factors other than financial incentives are powerfully at work. This is also reflected in the long-run early-retirement trend. This trend presents demographers and economists with a puzzle, because while a break can be identified in the time series, it set in before the early-retirement reforms were put into practice.

Mapping the Minds of Retirement Planners

This study explored the psychological mechanisms that underlie the retirement planning and saving tendencies of Dutch and American workers. Participants were 988 Dutch and 429 Americans, 25 to 64 years of age. Analyses were designed to (a) examine the extent to which structural variables were related to planning tendencies and (b) develop culture-specific path analysis models to identify the mechanisms that underlie perceived financial preparedness for retirement. Findings revealed striking differences across countries not only among structural variables predictive of key psychological and retirement planning constructs, but also in the robustness of the path models. These findings suggest policy analysts should take into account both individual and cultural differences in the psychological predispositions of workers when considering pension reforms that stress individual responsibility for planning and saving.

Government spending cycles: Ideological or opportunistic?*

This paper examines whether partisan and opportunistic motives affect government expenditure growth in the Netherlands. The time series analysis, covering the period 1953–1993, allows for different types of government spending. In general, spending is inspired by ideological and opportunistic motives: all government expenditure categories show an upward drift during election times and the ‘partisan’ motives behind government spending are clearly revealed: left-wing cabinets attach greater importance to social security and health care than right-wing cabinets and right-wing cabinets value expenditure on infrastructure and defense more than left-wing parties.

Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior

Do people follow up on their intentions? In this paper we confront the emigration intentions formed by inhabitants of the Netherlands during the year 2004-2005 and the emigration steps they took in the subsequent two years. Three results stand out. First, it appears that intentions are good predictors of future emigration: 24 percent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate have actually emigrated within two years time. Second, within the group of potential emigrants, those who have emigrated and those who have not yet emigrated, do not differ much from each other. The potential emigrants who have not yet emigrated are in poorer health. Third, the forces that trigger emigration intentions are also the same forces that make people actually move.

The Golden Age of Nobel Economists

This paper examines the productivity record of economists who have dominated economic science in the twentieth century, viz. the Nobel laureates in economics. They generally start their career at a very young age, they were at the right place at the right time, and they possessed an independent mind. Their most important and creative contributions are written between the ages of 29 and 38. The average creative age of Nobel economists is slightly below that of laureates in physics, and considerably younger than that of laureates in chemistry and medicine/biology. The University of Chicago and the US in general has so far turned out the best breeding ground for original economists. Furthermore, most fundamental work has been written alone and this finding contrasts sharply with the dominant trend in economics where multi-authored publications have become the rule.This paper examines the productivity record of economists who have dominated economic science in the twentieth century, viz. the Nobel laureates in economics. They generally start their career at a young age, they were at the right place at the right time, and they have an independent mind. Their most important and creative contributions are written between the ages of 29 and 38. The average creative age of Nobel economists is slightly below that of laureates in physics, and considerably younger than that of laureates in chemistry and medicine/physiology. The University of Chicago and the US in general has so far turned out to be best breeding ground for original economists. Furthermore, most fundamental work has been written alone and this finding contrasts strongly with the dominant trend in economics where multi-authored publications have become the rule.

Aging and financial planning for retirement: Interdisciplinary influences viewed through a cross-cultural lens

Current theoretical models support the existence of interactions between the individual and socio-environmental forces when it comes to the formation and enactment of life plans (Friedman & Scholnick, 1997; Shanahan & Elder, 2002). In this investigation, we examine the social, economic, and psychological forces that impact financial planning for retirement. The collective force of these three broad sets of influences was examined from developmental and cross-cultural perspectives, among respondents from two countries with very different retirement financing systems. Participants were 419 American and 556 Dutch working adults, 25–64 years of age. Path analysis models were created to examine differences in planning associated with age and national origin. Compared to younger individuals, older respondents in both countries were more involved in nearly all aspects of the financial planning process. Differences across cultures were also observed in the social support mechanisms that underlie planning and the impact economic forces have on perceptions of saving adequacy. The discussion focuses on the value of developing interdisciplinary theoretical models of planning, and how such models can inform the development of savings-oriented intervention and public policy initiatives.

Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands, 2005–10

We examined the emigration intentions of native-born Dutch residents and their subsequent emigration behaviour from 2005 to 2010. Data were collected from two surveys on emigration intentions, one conducted locally and one nationally. A number of novel results stand out. First, intentions were good predictors of future emigration: 34 per cent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate actually emigrated within the 5-year follow-up period. Second, the personality of potential migrants and their discontent with the quality of the public domain in the Netherlands (e.g., crowded space and inadequate access to unspoilt nature, pollution, crime level, mentality of people) were the strongest contributors to the motivation to move abroad. Third, the main difference between movers and those who stated intentions to emigrate but had not (yet) followed through was their state of health: healthy people were more likely to follow through with their migration intentions than those in poorer health.