Heng-fu Zou

The composition of public expenditure and economic growth

Noting that the literature has focused on the link between the level of public expenditure and growth, we derive conditions under which a change in the composition of expenditure leads to a higher steady-state growth rate of the economy. The conditions depend not just on the physical productivity of the different components of public expenditure but also on the initial shares. Using data from 43 developing countries over 20 years we show that an increase in the share of current expenditure has positive and statistically significant growth effects. By contrast, the relationship between the capital component of public expenditure and per-capita growth is negative. Thus, seemingly productive expenditures, when used in excess, could become unproductive. These results imply that developing-country governments have been misallocating public expenditures in favor of capital expenditures at the expense of current expenditures.

Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality

This paper explores the propositions that, income inequality is relatively stable within countries; and that it varies significantly among countries. A new and expanded data set provides broad support for both propositions. Drawing on a political economy and capital market imperfection arguments to explain the intertemporal and international variation in inequality, the empirical analysis shows that the predicted variables associated with the first argument (a measure of civil liberties and the initial level of secondary schooling) and the second argument (a measure of financial depth and the initial distribution of land) are indeed important determinants of inequality.

Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China

The authors of this report use data on China to demonstrate how the allocation of fiscal revenue and expenditures between central and local governments has affected economic growth since reforms that began in the late 1970s. They find a higher degree of fiscal decentralization associated with lower provincial economic growth over the past 15 years in China. This implies that fiscal reforms begun in China in the early 1980s have probably failed to promote the countrys economic growth. This result is consistently significant and robust in their empirical examinations, and is surprising in light of the argument that fiscal decentralization usually contributes positively to provincial or local economic growth.

Income Inequality is not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence

The paper shows that income inequality may theoretically lead to higher economic growth if public consumption enters the utility function. Empirically, baseline estimations and a sensitivity analysis show that income inequality is positively, and most of the time significantly, associated with economic growth. These findings stand in sharp contrast to the negative association between inequality and growth propounded by Alesina and Rodrik and by Persson and Tabellini.

Corruption, Income Distribution, and Growth

This paper uses an encompassing framework developed by Murphy et al. (1991, 1993) to study corruption and how it affects income distribution and growth. We find that (1) corruption affects income distribution in an inverted U-shaped way, (2) corruption alone also explains a large proportion of the Gini differential across developing and industrial countries, and (3) after correcting for measurement errors, corruption seems to retard economic growth. But the effect is far less pronounced than the one found in Mauro (1995). Moreover, corruption alone explains little of the continental growth differentials. In countries where the asset distribution is less equal, corruption is associated with a smaller increase in income inequality and a larger drop in growth rates.

Finance and Income Inequality: What Do the Data Tell Us?

Although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality, little empirical research compares their explanatory power. We examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995. Because financial development might be endogenous, we use instruments from the literature on law, finance, and growth to control for this. Our results suggest that, in the long run, inequality is less when financial development is greater, consistent with Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development, as suggested by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990), this result is not robust. We reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich. Our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth, financial development also reduces inequality.

How does fiscal decentralization affect aggregate, national, and subnational government size?

Beyond conducting the usual regression analysis of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and aggregate government size (national and subnational combined), this paper makes the first attempt to examine how different fiscal decentralization measures affect the sizes of national and subnational (state and local combined) governments. An econometric analysis using panel data from 32 industrial and developing countries, 1980¨C1994, finds that (1) expenditure decentralization leads to smaller national governments, larger subnational governments, and larger aggregate governments; (2) revenue decentralization increases subnational governments by less than it reduces national governments, hence leads to smaller aggregate governments; and (3) vertical imbalance tends to increase the sizes of subnational, national, and aggregate governments.

Finance and income inequality : test of alternative theories

Although theoretical models make distinct predictions about the relationship between financial sector development and income inequality, little empirical research has been conducted to compare their relative explanatory power. The authors examine the relation between financial intermediary development and income inequality in a panel data set of 91 countries for the period 1960-95. Their results provide evidence that inequality decreases as economies develop their financial intermediaries, consistent with the theoretical models in Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Moreover, consistent with the insight of Kuznets, the relation between the Gini coefficient and financial intermediary development appears to depend on the sectoral structure of the economy: a larger modern sector is associated with a smaller drop in the Gini coefficient for the same level of financial intermediary development. But there is no evidence of an inverted-U-shaped relation between financial sector development and income inequality, as suggested by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990). The results are robust to controlling for biases introduced by simultaneity.

The growth impact of intersectoral and intergovernmental allocation of public expenditure: With applications to China and India

The negative association between fiscal decentralization and provincial economic growth has been found to be consistently significant and robust in China. For India, however, we have found that fiscal decentralization is positively, and even statistically significantly, associated with state economic growth. The state allocation of public spending in various sectors is broadly consistent with i°growth maximizing,i± whereas increases in the central allocation of its budget among development projects, nondevelopment projects, and social and community services by cutting the centers spending on all other functions can promote regional growth.

The spirit of capitalism and savings behavior

This paper presents a capitalist-spirit model of savings by including wealth in the intertemporal utility function. While this model includes the life-cycle model and bequest model as two special cases, it sheds light on why wealth holding has tended to increase with age, why decumulation of wealth after retirement has not happened, and why households with and without children have not shown significant differences in their savings behavior. The capitalist-spirit approach is especially useful for understanding savings by the rich and savings across countries and over time.