Hengrui Sun

Is Worsening Renal Function an Ominous Prognostic Sign in Patients with Acute Heart Failure? The Role of Congestion and Its Interaction with Renal Function

Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.

Is Worsening Renal Function an Ominous Prognostic Sign in Patients With Acute Heart Failure?Clinical Perspective

Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.

Neurohormonal Activation in Acute Heart Failure: Results from VERITAS

Objectives: Recent heart failure studies have suggested that inflammatory and immune system activation are associated with increased levels of cytokines, chemokines and inflammatory proteins during acutely decompensated heart failure. The objectives of this substudy were to evaluate the role of neurohormonal and inflammatory activation in the pathogenesis and outcome of acute heart failure (AHF) and the correlation between biomarker levels and clinical outcomes. Methods: Serum levels of B-type natriuretic peptide-32 (BNP-32), endothelin-1 (ET-1), norepinephrine, troponins I and T, C-reactive protein (CRP), von Willebrand factor, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) were measured at baseline, 24 and 48 h and 7 and 30 days in 112 patients with AHF recruited to the Value of Endothelin Receptor Inhibition with Tezosentan in Acute Heart Failure Study neurohormonal substudy. Results: On univariable analysis, CRP, BNP and ET-1 were predictive of worsening heart failure by day 30; when considered together, only CRP and BNP were significantly associated with this outcome. On adjustment for age, baseline blood pressure, serum sodium and serum creatinine, only age and BNP remained significant. CRP, IL-6 and TPA levels were significantly correlated with 180-day mortality on univariable analysis. Conclusion: Circulating markers of inflammation may be useful in gauging prognosis in patients with AHF.

Preclinical Efficacy of a Carboxylesterase 2-Activated Prodrug of Doxazolidine

Doxazolidine (Doxaz) is a functionally distinct formaldehyde conjugate of doxorubicin (Dox) that induces cancer cell death in Dox-sensitive and resistant cells. Pentyl PABC-Doxaz (PPD) is a prodrug of Doxaz that is activated by carboxylesterase 2 (CES2), which is expressed by liver, non-small-cell lung, colon, pancreatic, renal, and thyroid cancer cells. Here, we demonstrate that in two murine models, PPD was effective at slowing tumor growth and demonstrated markedly reduced cardiotoxic and nephrotoxic effects, as well as better tolerance, relative to Dox. Hepatotoxicity, consistent with liver expression of the murine CES2 homologue, was induced by PPD. Unlike irinotecan, a clinical CES2-activated prodrug, PPD produced no visible gastrointestinal damage. Finally, we demonstrate that cellular response to PPD may be predicted with good accuracy using CES2 expression and Doxaz sensitivity, suggesting that these metrics may be useful as clinical biomarkers for sensitivity of a specific tumor to PPD treatment.

Is Worsening Renal Function an Ominous Prognostic Sign in Patients With Acute Heart Failure

Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.

Analyzing multiple endpoints in a confirmatory randomized clinical trial-an approach that addresses stratification, missing values, baseline imbalance and multiplicity for strictly ordinal outcomes: Analyzing multiple endpoints using closed testing procedure

Confirmatory randomized clinical trials with a stratified design may have ordinal response outcomes, ie, either ordered categories or continuous determinations that are not compatible with an interval scale. Also, multiple endpoints are often collected when 1 single endpoint does not represent the overall efficacy of the treatment. In addition, random baseline imbalances and missing values can add another layer of difficulty in the analysis plan. Therefore, the development of an approach that provides a consolidated strategy to all issues collectively is essential. For a real case example that is from a clinical trial comparing a test treatment and a control for the pain management for patients with osteoarthritis, which has all aforementioned issues, multivariate Mann-Whitney estimators with stratification adjustment are applicable to the strictly ordinal responses with stratified design. Randomization based nonparametric analysis of covariance is applied to account for the possible baseline imbalances. Several approaches that handle missing values are provided. A global test followed by a closed testing procedure controls the family wise error rate in the strong sense for the analysis of multiple endpoints. Four outcomes indicating joint pain, stiffness, and functional status were analyzed collectively and also individually through the procedures. Treatment efficacy was observed in the combined endpoint as well as in the individual endpoints. The proposed approach is effective in addressing the aforementioned problems simultaneously and straightforward to implement.

Statistical planning in confirmatory clinical trials with multiple treatment groups, multiple visits, and multiple endpoints

ABSTRACT Multiplicity issues can be multidimensional: A confirmatory clinical trial may be designed to have efficacy assessed with two or more primary endpoints, for multiple dose groups, and at several post-baseline visits. Controlling for multiplicity in this situation is challenging because there can be a hierarchy with respect to some but not all measurements. If the higher dose is considered more efficacious, multiplicity approach may evaluate the higher dose with higher priority through a fixed sequential testing framework for dose assessments in combination with a Hochberg approach for endpoints. The lower dose is only assessed when the higher dose has significant results, which reduces the power for detecting signals in the lower dose group. However, in some instances the higher dose may associate with tolerability or safety concerns that preclude regulatory approval. A real confirmatory clinical trial with such challenges is provided as an illustrative example. We discuss closed testing procedures based on multi-way averages of comparisons for this complex multiplicity situation through illustrative case analyses and a simulation study. Such strategies manage the higher dose and the lower dose with equal priority, and they enable evaluation of the multiple endpoints at multiple visits collectively with power being reasonably high.

Statistical planning to address strongly correlated endpoints for inferential subgroups: An innovative approach for an illustrative clinical trial with complex multiplicity issues

ABSTRACT Multiplicity is an important statistical issue that arises in clinical trials when the efficacy of the test treatment is evaluated in multiple ways. The major concern for multiplicity is that uncontrolled multiple assessments lead to inflated family-wise Type I error, and they thereby undermine the integrity of the statistical inferences. Multiplicity comes from different sources, for example, making inferences either on the overall population or some pre-specified sub-populations, while multiple endpoints need to be evaluated for each population. Therefore, a sound statistical strategy that controls the family-wise Type I error rate in a strong sense, without excessive loss of power from over-control, is crucial for the success of the trial. For a recent phase III cardiovascular trial with such complex multiplicity, we illustrate the use of a closed testing strategy that begins with a global test; and subsequent testing only proceeds when the global test is rejected. Also, we discuss a simulation study based on this trial to compare the power of the illustrated closed testing strategy to some well-known alternative approaches. We found that this strategy can comprehensively meet most of the primary objectives of the trial effectively with reasonably high overall power.

Response to Letter Regarding Article, “Is Worsening Renal Function an Ominous Prognostic Sign in Patients With Acute Heart Failure? The Role of Congestion and Its Interaction With Renal Function”

We thank the authors for their interest in our study. Its main message is that short-term increases in serum creatinine, such as those that can be detected in patients undergoing aggressive diuretic treatment for acutely decompensated heart failure, do not necessarily predict a poor prognosis because they may be secondary to hemodynamic mechanisms (renal hypoperfusion and arterial underfilling) related to aggressive diuretic treatment in the absence of a persistent kidney injury.1 Data in the literature are controversial with respect to the prognostic significance of short-term serum creatinine changes. When serum creatinine levels were not assessed prospectively in every patient,2,3 …

Is Worsening Renal Function an Ominous Prognostic Sign in Patients With Acute Heart Failure?Clinical Perspective: The Role of Congestion and Its Interaction With Renal Function

Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.Background— Worsening renal function (WRF), traditionally defined as an increase in serum creatinine levels ≥0.3 mg/dL, is a frequent finding in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) and has been associated with poorer outcomes in some but not all studies. We hypothesized that these discrepancies may be caused by the interaction between WRF and congestion in AHF patients. Methods and Results— We measured serum creatinine levels on a daily basis during the hospitalization and assessed the persistence of signs of congestion at discharge in 599 consecutive patients admitted at our institute for AHF. They had a postdischarge mortality and mortality or AHF readmission rates of 13% and 43%, respectively, after 1 year. Patients were subdivided into 4 groups according to the development or not of WRF and the persistence of ≥1 sign of congestion at discharge. Patients with WRF and no congestion had similar outcomes compared with those with no WRF and no congestion, whereas the risk of death or of death or AHF readmission was increased in the patients with persistent congestion alone and in those with both WRF and congestion (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 3.0–9.55 at univariable analysis; hazard ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–4.18 at multivariable analysis for mortality; hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–3.3 at univariable analysis; and hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–2.2 at multivariable analysis for mortality and rehospitalizations). Conclusions— WRF alone, when detected using serial serum creatinine measurements, is not an independent determinant of outcomes in patients with AHF. It has an additive prognostic value when it occurs in patients with persistent signs of congestion.