Henning Tarp Jensen

Marketing margins and agricultural technology in Mozambique

Improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in Mozambique are analysed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model incorporates detailed marketing margins and separates household demand for marketed and home-produced goods. Individual simulations of improved agricultural technology and lower marketing margins yield welfare gains across the economy. In addition, a combined scenario reveals significant synergy effects, as gains exceed the sum of gains from the individual scenarios. Relative welfare improvements are higher for poor rural households, while factor returns increase in roughly equal proportions, an attractive feature when assessing the political feasibility of policy initiatives.

Trade Liberalization and Spatial Inequality: A Methodological Innovation in Vietnamese Perspective

The authors calibrate two static computable general‐equilibrium (CGE) models with 16 and 5999 representative households. Aggregated and disaggregated household categories are consistently embedded in a 2000 social accounting matrix (SAM) for Vietnam, mapping on a one‐to‐one basis. Distinct differences in poverty assessments emerge when the impact of trade liberalization is analyzed in the two models. This highlights the importance of modeling micro‐household behavior and related income and expenditure distributions endogenously within a static CGE model framework. The simulations indicate that poverty will rise following a revenue‐neutral lowering of trade taxes. This is interpreted as a worst‐case scenario, which suggests that the government should be proactive in combining trade liberalization measures with a pro‐poor fiscal response to avoid increasing poverty in the short to medium term.

Structural Characteristics of the Economy of Mozambique: A SAM-Based Analysis

Key features of the Mozambican economy are synthesized in this paper based on a new 1995 social accounting matrix. Particular attention is paid to the critical role of home consumption and large marketing margins. The fundamental importance of agricultural development emerges clearly from the analysis in which the multiplier for value added by capital is re-examined. Agriculture has large sectoral multipliers and is generally more effective in the use of scarce capital than industry and services. Commodities with attractive features for the promotion of agriculture in the short to medium term include maize, rice, as well as small-scale livestock and forestry. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

STABILIZATION AND STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN MOZAMBIQUE: AN APPRAISAL

This paper outlines the complex historical legacy and structural adjustment efforts in Mozambique in addition to reviewing recent economic developments. An in-depth analysis of new and more reliable national accounts data show that macroeconomic stabilisation has occurred through recovery from a suppressed outset. Yet, easy import substitution has now been used up, and structural transformation on the export side remains to be addressed. Moreover, a coherent development strategy geared towards poverty reduction is still to be implemented. The government budget also remains problematic, and aid dependency continues. Accordingly, fundamental development challenges lie ahead.

Comparison of human papillomavirus genotypes in archival cervical cancer specimens from Alaska natives, Greenland natives and Danish Caucasians.

Archival, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded cervical cancer specimens from 53 Alaska natives, 32 Greenland natives and 34 Danish Caucasians were analyzed for human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes 16, 18, 31, 33, 35 and 45 and unidentified genotypes (HPV X) using PCR. The specimens were from the time period 1980-1989. No significant differences were observed in the overall HPV detection rates among cases from Alaska (98.1%), Greenland (84.4%) and Denmark (85.3%). HPV genotype 16 was the most prevalent type: 78.8% in Alaska natives, 96.3% in Greenland natives and 82.8% in Danish Caucasians. A prevalence of 21.2% HPV 31 and 30.8% HPV 33 was found in Alaska natives, of which most were coinfections with HPV 16. Only 3.7% HPV 31 and 3.7% HPV 33 were found in Greenland natives and no HPV 31 and 6.9% HPV 33 were found in Danish Caucasians. HPV 18 was only detected in Alaska natives and HPV 35 and 45 were not detected in any of the three populations. Infections with multiple genotypes were prevalent in Alaskan (36.5%) but not in Greenland natives (3. 7%) and Danish Caucasians (6.9%). The Eskimo subgroup of the Alaska native population has a significantly higher prevalence of HPV genotypes 31 and 33 associated with mixed infections in invasive cancer than the two other native subgroups (P = 0.04) and Greenland and Danish populations, reflecting genotype distributions in dysplasia and normal cervical cytology. The reason for HPV genotype diversity, although unknown, may be relevant to the current development of HPV vaccines.

Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.

The Impact of Alzheimer's Disease on the Chinese Economy

Background Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimers Disease (AD) burdens. Chinas demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment. Methods AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011–2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed. Findings Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011–50 from 6–28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to Chinas 2012 GDP (US

Abnormal Papanicolaou Smear: A Population-based Study of Risk Factors in Greenlandic and Danish Women

8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US

Macrophage-lymphocyte clusters in the immune response to soluble protein antigen in vitro. V. Inhibition of macromolecular synthesis and of microfilament and microtubule function.

1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%. Interpretation Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011–2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.

A whole-economy model of the health co-benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the UK

Possible risk factors for abnormal Papanicolaou smear were investigated in a population‐based cross‐sectional study. From Nuuk (Greenland) and Nykebing Falster (Denmark), random samples of 800 women aged 20–39 years were drawn. Totals of 586 and 661 women were included in Greenland and Denmark, respectively. All women went through a personal interview, and had a gynecologic examination including a PAP smear and cervical swab for HPV analysis. A blood sample was taken for analysis of HSV type specific antibodies. Multiple sexual partners was the most important risk factor for abnormal cervical cytology (OR = 4.2). An infectious etiology was also indirectly supported by a relatively protective effect of barrier contraceptive methods (OR = 0.6). The simultaneous finding of HPV 16/18 as a significant risk factor (OR = 2.4) cannot be taken uncritically as support for a causal effect of this HPV type, since such a relationship between cytological changes of the cervix and HPV infection could also emerge if the positive PAP smear was not just a measure of intra‐epithelial neoplasia but also an expression of the infection itself on the cervix.