Henriëtte A. Moll

Internal and external validation of predictive models: a simulation study of bias and precision in small samples.

We performed a simulation study to investigate the accuracy of bootstrap estimates of optimism (internal validation) and the precision of performance estimates in independent validation samples (external validation). We combined two data sets containing children presenting with fever without source (n=376+179=555; 120 bacterial infections). Random samples were drawn from this combined data set for the development (n=376) and validation (n=179) of logistic regression models. The models included statistically significant predictors for infection selected from a set of 57 candidate predictors. Model development, including the selection of predictors, and validation were repeated in a bootstrapping procedure. The resulting expected optimism estimate in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area was compared with the observed optimism according to independent validation samples. The average apparent ROC area was 0.74, which was expected (based on bootstrapping) to decrease by 0.07 to 0.67, whereas the observed decrease in the validation samples was 0.09 to 0.65. Omitting the selection of predictors from the bootstrap procedure led to a severe underestimation of the optimism (decrease 0.006). The standard error of the observed ROC area in the independent validation samples was large (0.05). We recommend bootstrapping for internal validation because it gives reasonably valid estimates of the expected optimism in predictive performance provided that any selection of predictors is taken into account. For external validation, substantial sample sizes should be used for sufficient power to detect clinically important changes in performance as compared with the internally validated estimate.

Prolonged and Exclusive Breastfeeding Reduces the Risk of Infectious Diseases in Infancy

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of duration of exclusive breastfeeding with infections in the upper respiratory (URTI), lower respiratory (LRTI), and gastrointestinal tracts (GI) in infancy. METHODS: This study was embedded in the Generation R Study, a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life onward in the Netherlands. Rates of breastfeeding during the first 6 months (never; partial for <4 months, not thereafter; partial for 4–6 months; exclusive for 4 months, not thereafter; exclusive for 4 months, partial thereafter; and exclusive for 6 months) and doctor-attended infections in the URTI, LRTI, and GI until the age of 12 months were assessed by questionnaires and available for 4164 subjects. RESULTS: Compared with never-breastfed infants, those who were breastfed exclusively until the age of 4 months and partially thereafter had lower risks of infections in the URTI, LRTI, and GI until the age of 6 months (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51–0.83]; aOR: 0.50 [CI: 0.32–0.79]; and aOR: 0.41 [CI: 0.26–0.64], respectively) and of LRTI infections between the ages of 7 and 12 months (aOR: 0.46 [CI: 0.31–0.69]). Similar tendencies were observed for infants who were exclusively breastfed for 6 months or longer. Partial breastfeeding, even for 6 months, did not result in significantly lower risks of these infections. CONCLUSIONS: Exclusive breastfeeding until the age of 4 months and partially thereafter was associated with a significant reduction of respiratory and gastrointestinal morbidity in infants. Our findings support health-policy strategies to promote exclusive breastfeeding for at least 4 months, but preferably 6 months, in industrialized countries.

The Generation R Study: Design and cohort profile

The Generation R Study is a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life until young adulthood. The study is designed to identify early environmental and genetic causes of normal and abnormal growth, development and health from fetal life until young adulthood. The study focuses on four primary areas of research: (1) growth and physical development; (2) behavioral and cognitive development; (3) diseases in childhood; and (4) health and healthcare for pregnant women and children. In total, 9778 mothers with a delivery date from April 2002 until January 2006 were enrolled in the study. Of all eligible children at birth, 61% participate in the study. Data collection in the prenatal phase included physical examinations, questionnaires, fetal ultrasound examinations and biological samples. In addition, more detailed assessments are conducted in a subgroup of 1232 pregnant women and their children. The children form a prenatally recruited birth-cohort that will be followed until young adulthood. Eventually, results forthcoming from the Generation R Study have to contribute to the development of strategies for optimizing health and healthcare for pregnant women and children.

Active and passive maternal smoking during pregnancy and the risks of low birthweight and preterm birth: the Generation R Study

The objective of this study was to examine the associations between active and passive smoking in different periods of pregnancy and changing smoking habits during pregnancy, with low birthweight and preterm birth. The study was embedded in the Generation R Study, a population-based prospective cohort study from early fetal life onwards in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Active and passive smoking were assessed by questionnaires in early, mid- and late pregnancy. Analyses were based on 7098 pregnant women and their children. Active smoking until pregnancy was ascertained and was not associated with low birthweight and preterm birth. Continued active smoking after pregnancy was also recorded and was associated with low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 1.75 [95% CI 1.20, 2.56]) and preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio 1.36 [95% CI 1.04, 1.78]). The strongest associations were found for active maternal smoking in late pregnancy. Passive maternal smoking in late pregnancy was associated with continuously measured birthweight (P for trend <0.001). For all active smoking categories in early pregnancy, quitting smoking was associated with a higher birthweight than continuing to smoke. Tendencies towards smaller non-significant beneficial effects on mean birthweight were found for reducing the number of cigarettes without quitting completely. This study shows that active and passive smoking in late pregnancy are associated with adverse effects on weight and gestational age at birth. Smoking in early pregnancy only, seems not to affect fetal growth adversely. Health care strategies for pregnant women should be aimed at quitting smoking completely rather than reducing the number of cigarettes.

Effect of Simvastatin on Cognitive Functioning in Children With Neurofibromatosis Type 1: A Randomized Controlled Trial

CONTEXT Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is among the most common genetic disorders that cause learning disabilities. Recently, it was shown that statin-mediated inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase restores the cognitive deficits in an NF1 mouse model. OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of simvastatin on neuropsychological, neurophysiological, and neuroradiological outcome measures in children with NF1. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Sixty-two of 114 eligible children (54%) with NF1 participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted between January 20, 2006, and February 8, 2007, at an NF1 referral center at a Dutch university hospital. INTERVENTION Simvastatin or placebo treatment once daily for 12 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary outcomes were scores on a Rey complex figure test (delayed recall), cancellation test (speed), prism adaptation, and the mean brain apparent diffusion coefficient based on magnetic resonance imaging. Secondary outcome measures were scores on the cancellation test (standard deviation), Stroop color word test, block design, object assembly, Rey complex figure test (copy), Beery developmental test of visual-motor integration, and judgment of line orientation. Scores were corrected for baseline performance, age, and sex. RESULTS No significant differences were observed between the simvastatin and placebo groups on any primary outcome measure: Rey complex figure test (beta = 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.36 to 0.56); cancellation test (beta = -0.19; 95% CI, -0.67 to 0.29); prism adaptation (odds ratio = 2.0; 95% CI, 0.55 to 7.37); and mean brain apparent diffusion coefficient (beta = 0.06; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.20). In the secondary outcome measures, we found a significant improvement in the simvastatin group in object assembly scores (beta = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.08 to 1.01), which was specifically observed in children with poor baseline performance (beta = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.30). Other secondary outcome measures revealed no significant effect of simvastatin treatment. CONCLUSION In this 12-week trial, simvastatin did not improve cognitive function in children with NF1. Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN14965707.

Long-term effects of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis in infants and young children: a quantitative review.

One of the major questions regarding long‐term side effects of bronchiolitis by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is whether or not it induces asthma in later life. In this quantitative review, the data of 10 controlled studies are analysed. Methods: Follow‐up studies of RSV bronchiolitis published between January 1978 and December 1998 were identified through a MEDLINE search. Studies were selected if (i) postnatal age at the time of the inital illness was below 12 mo, (ii) all children were hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis, (iii) the diagnosis RSV was virologically confirmed in all cases, and (iv) a control group was used. Results: Six studies met all selection criteria. Up to 5 y of follow‐up after RSV bronchiolitis in infancy, 40% of children reported wheezing as compared to only 11% in the control group (p < 0.001). Between 5 and 10 y of follow‐up 22% of the bronchiolitis group reported wheezing against 10% of the control group (p= 0.19). The incidence of recurrent wheezing as defined by three or more wheezing episodes also decreased with increasing years of follow‐up: at 5 or more years of follow‐up the difference between the RSV group and the control group was no longer significant. Furthermore, the presence of either a personal and/or a family history of either atopy and/or asthma did not differ between the two groups.

Informed consent, parental awareness, and reasons for participating in a randomised controlled study

BACKGROUND The informed consent procedure plays a central role in randomised controlled trials but has only been explored in a few studies on children. AIM To assess the quality of the informed consent process in a paediatric setting. METHODS A questionnaire was sent to parents who volunteered their child (230 children) for a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial of ibuprofen syrup to prevent recurrent febrile seizures. RESULTS 181 (79%) parents responded. On average, 73% of parents were aware of the major study characteristics. A few had difficulty understanding the information provided. Major factors in parents granting approval were the contribution to clinical science (51%) and benefit to the child (32%). Sociodemographic status did not influence initial participation but west European origin of the father was associated with willingness to participate in future trials. 89% of participants felt positive about the informed consent procedure; however, 25% stated that they felt obliged to participate. Although their reasons for granting approval and their evaluation of the informed consent procedure did not differ, relatively more were hesitant about participating in future. Parents appreciated the investigator being on call 24 hours a day (38%) and the extra medical care and information provided (37%) as advantages of participation. Disadvantages were mainly the time consuming aspects and the work involved (23%). CONCLUSIONS Parents’ understanding of trial characteristics might be improved by designing less difficult informed consent forms and by the investigator giving extra attention and information to non-west European parents. Adequate measures should be taken to avoid parents feeling obliged to participate, rather than giving true informed consent.

Risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus associated apnoea

Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are characterized by upper or lower respiratory tract symptoms including bronchiolitis and pneumonia. Apnoea may be the first sign of disease in children with RSV infection. The aims of this study were the identification of independent risk factors for RSV associated apnoea and the prediction of the risk for mechanical ventilation in children with RSV associated apnoea. Medical records of children younger than 12 months of age admitted with RSV infection between 1992 and 1995 to the Sophia Childrens Hospital, were reviewed. Demographic parameters, clinical features and laboratory parameters (SaO2, pCO2 and pH) were obtained upon admission and during hospitalization. Children with and without apnoea were compared using univariate and multivariate logistic and linear regression analysis. One hundred and eighty-five patients with RSV infection were admitted of whom 38 (21%) presented with apnoea. Patients with apnoea were significantly younger, had a significantly lower temperature, higher pCO2 and lower pH and had on chest radiographs also more signs of atelectasis. The number of patients admitted to the ICU because of mechanical ventilation and oxygen administration was significantly higher in children with RSV associated apnoea. Apnoea at admission was a strong predictor for recurrent apnoea. The relative risk for mechanical ventilation increased with the number of episodes of apnoea: 2.4 (95% CI 0.8 – 6.6) in children with one episode of apnoea (at admission) versus 6.5 (95% CI 3.3 – 12.9) in children with recurrent episodes of apnoea. Conclusions Age below 2 months is the strongest independent risk factor for RSV associated apnoea. Apnoea at admission increases the risk for recurrent apnoea. The risk for mechanical ventilation significantly increases in children who suffer from recurrent apnoea.

Low socioeconomic status is a risk factor for preeclampsia: the Generation R Study.

Objectives To examine whether maternal socioeconomic status, as indicated by maternal educational level, is associated with preeclampsia, and if so, to what extent known risk factors for preeclampsia mediate the effect of educational level. Methods In the Generation R Study, a population-based cohort study, we examined data of 3547 pregnant women. Odds ratios of preeclampsia for low, mid-low and mid-high educational level compared with high educational level were calculated after adjustment for confounders and additional adjustment for a selection of potential mediators (family history, material factors, psychosocial factors, substance use, working conditions, preexisting medical conditions, maternal anthropometrics and blood pressure at enrolment) that individually caused more than 10% change in the odds ratio for low education. Results Adjusted for the confounding effects of age, gravidity and multiple pregnancy, women with low educational level were more likely to develop preeclampsia (odds ratio 5.12; 95% confidence interval: 2.20, 11.93) than women with high educational level. After additional adjustment for financial difficulties, smoking in pregnancy, working conditions, body mass index and blood pressure at enrolment, the odds ratio was 4.91 (95% confidence interval: 1.93, 12.52). Conclusion Low maternal socioeconomic status is a strong risk factor for preeclampsia. Only a small part of this association can be explained by the mediating effects of established risk factors for preeclampsia. Further research is needed to disentangle the pathway from low socioeconomic status to preeclampsia.

The Generation R Study: Biobank update 2015

The Generation R Study is a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life until adulthood. The study is designed to identify early environmental and genetic causes and causal pathways leading to normal and abnormal growth, development and health from fetal life, childhood and young adulthood. In total, 9,778 mothers were enrolled in the study. Data collection in children and their parents include questionnaires, interviews, detailed physical and ultrasound examinations, behavioural observations, Magnetic Resonance Imaging and biological samples. Efforts have been conducted for collecting biological samples including blood, hair, faeces, nasal swabs, saliva and urine samples and generating genomics data on DNA, RNA and microbiome. In this paper, we give an update of the collection, processing and storage of these biological samples and available measures. Together with detailed phenotype measurements, these biological samples provide a unique resource for epidemiological studies focused on environmental exposures, genetic and genomic determinants and their interactions in relation to growth, health and development from fetal life onwards.