Henrik Stensgaard Toft

Uncertainty modelling and code calibration for composite materials

Uncertainties related to the material properties of a composite material can be determined from the micro-, meso- or macro-scales. These three starting points for a stochastic modelling of the material properties are investigated. The uncertainties are divided into physical, model, statistical and measurement uncertainties which are introduced on the different scales. Typically, these uncertainties are taken into account in the design process using characteristic values and partial safety factors specified in a design standard. The value of the partial safety factors should reflect a reasonable balance between risk of failure and cost of the structure. Consideration related to calibration of partial safety factors for composite material is described, including the probability of failure, format for the partial safety factor method and weight factors for different load cases. In a numerical example, it is demonstrated how probabilistic models for the material properties formulated on micro-scale can be calibrated using tests on the meso- and macro-scales. The results are compared to probabilistic models estimated directly from tests on the macro-scale. In another example, partial safety factors for application to wind turbine blades are calibrated for two typical lay-ups using a large number of load cases and ratios between the aerodynamic forces and the inertia forces.

Reliability Assessment of Fatigue Critical Welded Details in Wind Turbine Jacket Support Structures

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to reliability assessment of fatigue critical welded details in jacket support structures for offshore wind turbines. The analysis of the jacket response to the operational loads is performed using Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations in SIMULIA Abaqus. Fatigue stress cycles are computed on the jacket members by applying tower top loads from an aeroelastic simulation with superimposed marine loads and in accordance to the IEC-61400-3 guidelines for operational conditions. The combined effect of the hydrodynamic loads and the rotor loads on the jacket structure is analyzed in a de-coupled scheme, but including the structural dynamics of the support structure.The failure prediction of the welded joints, connecting the individual members of the support structure is based on SN-curves and Miners rule according to ISO 19902 and DNV-RP-C203/DNV-OS-J101. Probabilistic SN-curves and a stochastic model for Miners rule is used to estimate the reliability of selected critical welded details in the jacket structure taken into account the uncertainty in the fatigue stresses.Copyright