Henrik Urdal

People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited

Demographic and environmental factors have claimed a dominant position in the post-Cold War security discourse. According to the neo-Malthusian conflict scenario, population pressure on natural renewable resources makes societies more prone to low-intensity civil war. On the contrary, resource-optimists concede that agricultural land scarcity caused by high population density may be a driving factor behind economic development, thus causing peace in a long-term perspective. These notions are tested in a quantitative cross-national time-series study covering the 1950-2000 period. The results do not provide strong support for either perspective. Countries experiencing high rates of population growth, high rates of urbanization, or large refugee populations do not face greater risks of internal armed conflict. There is some indication that scarcity of potential cropland may have a pacifying effect. However, where land scarcity combines with high rates of population growth, the risk of armed conflict increases somewhat. This trend is particularly marked for the 1970s, the decade that saw the great rise in neo-Malthusian concerns. Claims that the world has entered a ‘new age of insecurity’ after the end of the Cold War, where demographic and environmental factors threaten security and state stability, appear to be unfounded. Overall, the robustness of the empirical support for both paradigms is low. A strong emphasis on security as a macro rationale for reducing global population growth thus seems unwarranted.

Population, Resources, and Political Violence A Subnational Study of India, 1956–2002

Recent cross-national studies have found only moderate support for the idea that population pressure and resource scarcity may lead to political violence, contrary to much of the case study literature in the field. This article suggests that the level of analysis may be at the heart of this discrepancy. In a time-series study of political violence in 27 Indian states for the 1956–2002 period, it is tested whether high population pressure on renewable natural resources, youth bulges, and differential growth rates between religious groups are associated with higher levels of armed conflict, political violent events, and Hindu-Muslim riots. The results are generally more supportive of the resource scarcity and conflict scenario than recent global studies. The article further suggests that youth bulges affect all three forms of violence and that differential growth rates are positively related to armed conflict.

One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003

Abstract All parts of a country are rarely equally affected by political violence. Yet statistical studies largely fail to address sub-national conflict dynamics. We address this gap studying variations in ‘routine’ and ‘episodic’ violence between Indonesian provinces from 1990 to 2003. Within a grievance framework, the article focuses on the violence potential of resource scarcity and population pressure, as well as inter-group dynamics related to polarisation and horizontal inequality. Demographic pressure and inequality seem to have little effect in isolation. However, in provinces where population growth is high, greater levels of inequality between religious groups appear to increase the violence risk.

Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?

The takeover of the UN ‘safearea’ of Srebrenica by Bosnian Serb forces inJuly 1995 was followed by the killing of alarge number of male Bosnian Muslim civilians,in what has been characterized as the worstmassacre in Europe since World War II. Thisarticle is based on a report submitted asevidence to the UN International CriminalTribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) inthe case against General Radislav Krstić,who became the first person to be convicted ofgenocide at this Tribunal. This case also formspart of the genocide charges against SlobodanMilošević, Radovan Karadžić and RatkoMladić. To our knowledge, this report isunique among genocide studies in its approach,using individual-level data to identify everyvictim in order to arrive at a highly reliableminimum estimate of the number of peoplekilled. This was possible because of efforts byhumanitarian organizations to register peoplewho disappeared during the war as well as theavailability of both pre- and post-conflictdata on individuals. We conclude that at least7,475 persons were killed after the fall ofSrebrenica. We also present estimates of theprobability of being a victim: more than 33%for Muslim men who were enumerated inSrebrenica in 1991.

The Demography of Conflict and Violence: An Introduction

The demography of armed conflict is an emerging field among demographers and peace researchers alike. The articles in this special issue treat demography as both a cause and a consequence of armed conflict, and they carry important policy implications. A study of German-allied countries during World War II addresses the role of refugees and territorial loss in paving the way for genocide. Other articles focusing on the demographic causes of conflict discuss highly contentious issues of whether economic and social inequality, high population pressure on natural resources, and youth bulges and limited migration opportunities can lead to different forms of armed conflict and state failure. The articles on demographic responses to armed conflict analyze the destructiveness of pre-industrial warfare, differences in short- and long-term mortality trends after armed conflict, and migratory responses in war. Another set of articles on demographic responses to war is published simultaneously in the European Journal of Population.

A qualitative study exploring the determinants of maternal health service uptake in post-conflict Burundi and Northern Uganda

BackgroundArmed conflict has been described as an important contributor to the social determinants of health and a driver of health inequity, including maternal health. These conflicts may severely reduce access to maternal health services and, as a consequence, lead to poor maternal health outcomes for a period extending beyond the conflict itself. As such, understanding how maternal health-seeking behaviour and utilisation of maternal health services can be improved in post-conflict societies is of crucial importance. This study aims to explore the determinants (barriers and facilitators) of women’s uptake of maternal, sexual and reproductive health services (MSRHS) in two post-conflict settings in sub-Saharan Africa; Burundi and Northern Uganda, and how uptake is affected by exposure to armed conflict.MethodsThis is a qualitative study that utilised in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) for data collection. One hundred and fifteen participants took part in the interviews and FGDs across the two study settings. Participants were women of reproductive age, local health providers and staff of non-governmental organizations. Issues explored included the factors affecting women’s utilisation of a range of MSRHS vis-à-vis conflict exposure. The framework method, making use of both inductive and deductive approaches, was used for analyzing the data.ResultsA complex and inter-related set of factors affect women’s utilisation of MSRHS in post-conflict settings. Exposure to armed conflict affects women’s utilisation of these services mainly through impeding women’s health seeking behaviour and community perception of health services. The factors identified cut across the individual, socio-cultural, and political and health system spheres, and the main determinants include women’s fear of developing pregnancy-related complications, status of women empowerment and support at the household and community levels, removal of user-fees, proximity to the health facility, and attitude of health providers.ConclusionsImproving women’s uptake of MSRHS in post-conflict settings requires health system strengthening initiatives that address the barriers across the individual, socio-cultural, and political and health system spheres. While addressing financial barriers to access is crucial, attention should be paid to non-financial barriers as well. The goal should be to develop an equitable and sustainable health system.

War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality

Recent studies have found significant excess mortality in women during and immediately after armed conflicts. This article directly assesses one of the most likely explanations, namely that war negatively affects reproductive health. Armed conflicts may contribute to sustain high fertility levels through increased social insecurity, loss of reproductive health services, and lower female education. Further, wars deteriorating impact on health infrastructure is expected to increase the relative risk that women die from complications associated with pregnancy and childbirth. These claims are tested in a global time-series cross-national study from 1970 through 2005. Three major findings are reported. First, armed conflicts are associated with higher overall fertility in low-income countries only. Second, maternal mortality rates are elevated, albeit moderately, in conflict countries. Third, conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, possibly indicating that health interventions among refugee and host populations are relatively successful. While addressing one of the least successful UN Millennium Development Goals, this study also responds to the UN Security Council Resolution 1325, in which Article 16 specifically calls for the “Secretary-General to carry out a study on the impact of armed conflict on women and girls.”

The demography of armed conflict

Preface.- Acknowledgements.- Introduction.- I. Demographic Causes of Conflict.- The Demographics of Genocide, M.I. Midlarsky.- Relative Resources, M.L. Besancon.- People vs. Malthus, H. Urdal.- Demography, Migration and Conflict in the Pacific, H. Ware.- II. Conflict and Mortality: The Broader Picture.- The Destructiveness of Pre-Industrial Warfare, J. Landers.- Monitoring Trends in Global Combat, B. Lacina and N.P. Gleditsch.- The Immediate and Lingering Effects of Armed Conflict on Adult Mortality, Q. Li and M. Wen.- III. Counting Victims for the Prosecution of War Crimes.- International Humanitarian Law and Combat Casualties, W.J. Fenrick.- Accounting for Genocide, H. Brunborg, T.H. Lyngstad and H. Urdal.- War-related Death in the 1992-1995 Armed Conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina, E. Tabeau and J. Bijak.- IV. Demographic consequences of conflict: Case Studies.- Cambodia, R.F. Neupert and V. Prum.- Analysing Low Intensity Conflict in Africa using Press Report, P. Bocquier and H. Maupeu.- Migratory Coping in Wartime Mozambique, S.C. Lubkemann.- V. Post-conflict demographic responses: Case Studies.- Forced Migration and Under-five Mortality, K. Singh, U. Karunakara , G. Burnham and K. Hill.- Child Survival and Fertility of Refugees in Rwanda, P. Vervimp and J. van Bavel.- The Demographic Consequences of Conflict, Exile and Repatriation, S. Randall.

Perceptions of the effects of armed conflict on maternal and reproductive health services and outcomes in Burundi and Northern Uganda: a qualitative study

BackgroundArmed conflict potentially poses serious challenges to access and quality of maternal and reproductive health (MRH) services, resulting in increased maternal morbidity and mortality. The effects of armed conflict may vary from one setting to another, including the mechanisms/channels through which the conflict may lead to poor access to and quality of health services. This study aims to explore the effects of armed conflict on MRH in Burundi and Northern Uganda.MethodsThis is a descriptive qualitative study that used in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) with women, health providers and staff of NGOs for data collection. Issues discussed include the effects of armed conflict on access and quality of MRH services and outcomes, and the mechanisms through which armed conflict leads to poor access and quality of MRH services. A total of 63 IDIs and 8 FGDs were conducted involving 115 participants.ResultsThe main themes that emerged from the study were: armed conflict as a cause of limited access to and poor quality of MRH services; armed conflict as a cause of poor MRH outcomes; and armed conflict as a route to improved access to health care. The main mechanisms through which the conflict led to poor access and quality of MRH services varied across the sites: attacks on health facilities and looting of medical supplies in both sites; targeted killing of health personnel and favouritism in the provision of healthcare in Burundi; and abduction of health providers in Northern Uganda. The perceived effects of the conflict on MRH outcomes included: increased maternal and newborn morbidity and mortality; high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and SGBV; increased levels of prostitution, teenage pregnancy and clandestine abortion; and high fertility levels. Relocation to government recognised IDP camps was perceived to improve access to health services.ConclusionsThe effects of armed conflict on MRH services and outcomes are substantial. The mechanisms through which armed conflict leads to poor access and quality of MRH services vary from one setting to another. All these issues need to be considered in the design and implementation of interventions to improve MRH in these settings.