Henry Montgomery

On theoretical and realizable ideal conditions in psychophysics: Magnitude and category scales and their relation

By spacing 10 stimuli (white noise) between 40 and 110 dB according to two criteria [equal response ambiguity (ERA) and equal discriminability (ED)], an attempt was made to construct an “ideal” case for magnitude estimation and category rating. The “ideal” case is defined by linear and constant Weber functions (SDs as a function of scale values) for the two scales, respectively. Altogether, three group and two individual magnitude and category rating experiments were run with these two spacings. It was found that the ERA spacing approximated the ideal case well for both Weber functions and the ED spacing only for the Weber function of the category scale. The general psychophysical differential equation that relates scale values and Weber functions for the two scales allowed good prediction of the category scales from the magnitude scales and the Weber functions. The data suggested a distinction between phenotypic (empirical) and genotypic Weber functions, analogous to “real” and “ideal” cases in physics.

Process and structure in human decision making

Part 1 Theory: information-processing operators in decision making, Oswald Huber from cognition to action - the search for dominance in decision making, Henry Montgomery rules and strategies in decision making - a critical analysis from phenomenological perspective, Gunnar Karlsson. Part 2 Method: eliciting and analyzing verbal protocols in process studies of judgement and decision making, Ola Svenson illustrating verbal protocol analysis - individual decisions and dialogues preceding a joint decision, Ola Svenson three methods for analyzing decision making using written documents, Irmtraud N.Gallhofer and Willem E.Saris. Part 3 Experimental studies: a think-aloud study of dominance structuring in decision processes, Henry Montgomery and Ola Svenson information search and evaluative processes in decision making - a computer-based process-tracing study, Ulf Dahlstrand and Henry Montgomery positive and negative decision frames - a verbal protocol analysis of the Asian disease problem of Tversky and Kahneman, A.John Maule preselection, uncertainty of preferences and information processing in human decision making, Tadeusz Tyszka structuring and evaluating simple monetary risks, Rob Ranyard information search and decision making - the effect of information displays, Gunilla A.Sundstroem change of preferences under time pressure - choices and judgements, Ola Svenson and Anne Edland. Part 4 Societal decision making: scenario analysis and energy politics - the disclosure of causal structures in decision making, Anders Biel and Henry Montgomery the credibility of inflation-related scenarios of different lengths, Goran Nilsson postdecisional justification - the case of De Lorean, Ray Crozier decision trees and decision rules in politics - the empirical decision analysis procedure, Irmtraud N.Gallhofer and Willem E.Saris.

Information search and evaluative processes in decision making: A computer based process tracing study

Abstract Twenty-six subjects chose among 5 flats by interacting with a computer. The subjects were told to rate the attractiveness of each piece of information requested from the computer. The subjects were also required, at regular intervals during the experimental session, to rate how eligible each alternative was. The results largely supported the assumption that decision making involves a search for a dominance structure, that is, a representation of the decision situation in which one alternative is seen as dominant over the others. In particular, it was found that subjects tended to enhance their attention to and evaluation of the finally chosen alternative long before the actual choice. The results also supported the idea that the search for a dominance structure involves several local decisions each of which may be associated to particular decision rules.

Gambling decisions and information about expected value

Abstract Four experiments were conducted to study the effects of information about expected value (EV) on choices among gambles. The subjects were presented with one or more sets of 17 gambles and were asked to select the one gamble they would prefer from each of these sets. In all experiments the EV concept was explained to the subjects and after this EV was displayed for each choice alternative. The experiments varied with respect to (a) the structure of the gambling alternatives, (b) the type of experimental design (within- or between-subjects design), and (c) whether repeated gambles were allowed or not. The EV information had marginal effects on the subjects choice behavior except when repeated gambles were allowed. It is suggested that subjects, rather than being guided by an abstract composite measure, such as EV, attempted to find a gamble having some concrete pattern of features.

Belief-value structures as determinants of consumer behaviour: A study of housing preferences and choices

The role of consumers belief-value structures was investigated in the context of residential preferences and simulated residential choices by means of a questionnaire answered by 36 adult Swedish respondents. Three models with different assumptions concerning how beliefs about the attainment of life values affect consumer behaviour were used for predicting preferences for and choices among hypothetical housing alternatives. A model assuming that the evaluation of a given alternative is determined by a weighted sum of the evaluations of the life values which it is believed to lead to, without specifying how individual attributes contribute to this value-fulfillment, was found to be the most successful one in predicting both preference ratings and choices. The results further suggested that whereas the age of the respondents and the format of the information about attributes may have an effect on belief-value structures, the ability to use such structures in order to predict preferences and choices may not be much affected by these factors. The present approach was compared with the laddering technique, and it was suggested that the two methods may be fruitfully combined in the study of consumer attitudes and behaviour.ZusammenfassungBerichtet wird über eine schwedische Untersuchung über die Bedeutung von Überzeugungen und Werthaltungen von Konsumenten für die Vorhersage von Präferenzen für verschiedene Wohnalternativen und für fiktive Entscheidungen zwischen Alternativen. Es handelt sich um eine Fragebogen-Untersuchung, an der 36 Erwachsene teilnahmen. Drei Modelle mit unterschiedlichen Annahmen darüber, wie Überzeugungen über das Erreichen von Lebenszielen das Konsumentenverhalten beeinflussen, wurden in ihrer Vorhersagekraft für Präferenzen und Entscheidungen gegeneinander getestet.Am erfolgreichsten war das Modell, das die Gesamtbewertung einer Wohnalternative bestimmt als gewichtete Summe der Einzelbewertung jener Lebensziele, zu deren Erfüllung diese Wohnung vermutlich beiträgt; das Modell spezifiziert nicht, inwieweit persönliche Eigenschaften zu dieser Zielerreichung beitragen. Weiterhin machen die Ergebnisse deutlich, daß sich sowohl das Alter der Befragten als auch die Darbietungsform der Informationen über die Alternativen auf die Überzeugungen und Werthaltungen auswirken können, kaum jedoch auf die Möglichkeit, daraus Präferenzen und Wahlentscheidungen vorhersagen zu können. Schließlich wurde der gewählte Ansatz verglichen mit der laddering technique; es wird vorgeschlagen, beide Methoden in der Verbraucherforschung kombiniert zu verwenden.

Using information technology: Engagement modes, flow experience, and personality orientations.

The engagement mode (EM) model describes how an IT user (subject) engages in an activity with an object in a certain mode. The model specifies five engagement modes (Enjoying/Acceptance, Ambition/C ...

Response selection strategies and realism of confidence judgments

Abstract Two studies were conducted to examine how response selection strategy is related to confidence ratings and to performance on general knowledge questions. In both studies subjects were asked to answer 80 general knowledge questions and to rate their confidence in the correctness of the answer selected. A pilot study, in which subjects thought aloud while answering general knowledge questions, was carried out to identify different response selection strategies. In the first study, 40 subjects were asked to indicate which of four strategies (immediate recognition, inference, intuition, or guessing) they used for selecting an answer. In Study 2, think aloud reports from 20 subjects were coded into the same four strategies. The distribution of strategies differed between the studies, but there were very similar relations among strategy, confidence, and correctness of answer in the two studies. Response selection strategy was related to correctness of answer when confidence was partialed out. More specifically, immediate recognition was associated with higher proportion correct than with the other strategies. It was also found that ratings of how difficult the knowledge questions were to fellow students of the subjects were on a much more realistic level than the confidence ratings were. It is concluded that people could improve their confidence judgments by taking into account (a) how difficult a question is to other people, and (b) the response selection strategy used for answering the question.

People's beliefs and values as determinants of housing preferences and simulated choices

The possibility to predict residential preferences and choices from peoples beliefs about the effects of different housing alternatives on the attainment of a number of life values was investigated by means of a questionnaire answered by 36 Swedish adults. Housing alternatives were described to the respondents in terms of a number of attribute dimensions. Two models were tested. The first model was based on the assumption that the evaluation of a given level of a housing attribute is determined by a weighted sum of the respondents evaluations of the life values which the attribute is believed to lead to, and that the evaluation of each housing alternative is obtained by summing this value‐fulfilment across all attributes. This model was quite successful in predicting preference ratings of the housing alternatives. When predicting simulated choices among housing alternatives, however, the second model, which did not presuppose additivity across attributes, yielded more successful predictions. For data ag...

Attractiveness of decision rules

Abstract Four groups of fifteen subjects were each presented with a hypothetical choice situation (job offers or apartments). Before choosing, the subjects were informed about three compensatory and three non-compensatory decision rules and were asked to rate the applicability of each rule in the given situation. Means of the applicability ratings were highest for two compensatory rules. The response distributions across individuals and situations indicated that the subjects could distinguish among the rules in a meaningful way. Reported usage of decision rules was closely related to the applicability ratings, particularly for the conjunctive rule. Factors favoring certain rules were discussed, as well as the validity of retrospective reports on decision rules.

Towards a perspective theory of decision making and judgment.

The notion of perspectives in its literal perceptual sense is assumed to shed light on thinking in general and evaluative processes in decision making and judgments in particular. Three determinants of perspectives in thinking are identified: (a) the subject, i.e., subject orientation, (b) the object, and (c) psychological distance between subject and object. Dependent on the congruence between subject orientation and characteristics of the object different figure-ground relationships are formed. When an inside perspective is adopted (the object is seen as affiliated with the subject) positive features form the ground and negative features are in the background. Conversely, when an outside perspective is adopted (the object is seen as separate from the subject) negative features form the figure and positive features are in the background. A model is outlined for relationships among perspectives, evaluations and external constraints in decision making and judgment. Empirical data from three empirical studies illustrate the validity of the framework described in the paper.