Herbert S. Levine

1987 Panel on the Soviet Economic Outlook: Perceptions on a Confusing Set of Statistics

Results of the second meeting of a panel of distinguished specialists who review annually Soviet economic performance are presented in the form of proceedings interwoven with tabular material, references, and occasional abstracts. Because of serious inconsistences and discrepancies in official Soviet statistical data for the year 1986, a debate on the quality of Soviet economic statistics is included in the review of performance. PlanEcon estimates are compared with those of the CIA. Also discussed are perspectives on agriculture and industry and prospects for 1987. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 221.

The 19th Conference of the CPSU: A Soviet Economy Roundtable

The 19th Conference of the Communist Party, convened in Moscow on June 28, 1988, is analyzed by eight Western observers. The discussion covers events leading up to the conference, such as the election of delegates, General Secretary Gorbachevs objectives, his influence and the significance of his compromises. It then proceeds to analyze the agenda and offers an overview with a focus on organization, the invigorated Soviets and selected political and economic implications. In addition to Gorbachevs opening address, special attention is given to the speech by Academician Abalkin and to Gorbachevs cryptic reaction to Abalkins exposition of the state of economic affairs. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 113.

Gorbachev's Economic Reform: A Soviet Economy Roundtable

The proceedings of a panel of American specialists devoted to the recent economic reform are summarized. The panelists noted that the most substantial changes to date have accompanied efforts to restructure the decisionmaking hierarchy—in particular, a recentralization of authority through the creation of biuros and state committees and legislation on individual economic activity. Changes in the systems of economic planning and incentives, on the other hand, have been minor, suggesting a continuing debate over the extent to which price reform and various economic incentives should be implemented. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 113, 124.

Basic Directions of Perestroyka

Three basic directions of the economys perestroyka (social orientation, uskoreniye of technological readjustment, and restructuring of management in enterprises) are outlined by its leading architect and advisor to General Secretary Gorbachev. The presentation, commencing the first joint Soviet Economy round-table, is followed by questions and comments by American participants relating to sequence, momentum, transition, anticipated consequences and contradictions in the reform. A rejoinder covering such issues as priorities, price formation, adaptation to change, allocation of resources and comparison with the Hungarian and other models, is followed by a concluding exchange of views on competition. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 052, 124.

Some Observations on the Plan-Market Relationship in Centrally Planned Economies:

This paper is comprised of several sets of observations on the plan-market relationship in centrally planned economies, as reflected in the experience of the Soviet Union. The paper begins with a discussion of the division of economic relations into vertical and horizontal and a description of the extensive and varied role of horizontal relations in the Soviet economy. A second set of observations concerns the beginning of market type mechanisms in the centrally controlled horizontal relationships among enter prises. A third set relates to the differences between routine production processes and creative processes. A fourth and final set of observations concerns the centralization of appointment making power and other aspects of the role of the Party in the Soviet economy. The paper ends with two conclusions: one, plan and market are not substitutes, but are complements for each other; two, the key problem of balance between plan and market is related to the issue of power in the society.

Soviet Economic Performance and Reform: Some Problems of Analysis and Prognosis (A Round-Table Discussion)

Henry Roberts: In extending my invitation to this informal discussion, I remarked that for the layman at least, and possibly for the economist, there are a number of interesting questions to be explored with respect both to the performance of the Soviet economy and to our shifting appraisals of it. In pursuance of this I suggest that we discuss today three or four related, though not identical, themes concerning the Soviet economy: its performance, the possibility and practicability of reforms, and also the question of our own appraisals of this economy-the means available to us, changes in our views over the last decade, and the prospects for useful prognostication.

The Aftermath of the 19th Conference of the CPSU: A Soviet Economy Roundtable

The aftermath of the 19th Conference of the Communist Party, held in Moscow from June 28 to July 1, 1988, is analyzed by eight Western observers. The discussion covers impacts of the Conference on Soviet society and abroad, General Secretary Gorbachevs speech at the Central Committee Plenum on July 29, 1988, and reviews results of his policies since 1985. It proceeds to look at the current transitional period of Soviet reforms, including the formation of new enterprise forms and horizontal links in the economy. Finally, the discussants view prospects for political and economic development in the future. journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 113.

1986 Panel on the Soviet Economic Outlook

The results of the inaugural meeting of a panel on the Soviet economy, convened by the editors of Soviet Economy, are summarized. The panel noted that 1985 economic performance had been fairly good by recent Soviet standards, although the external trade balance had deteriorated sharply. Turning to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (FYPXII) and the annual plan for 1986, the panel noted the clearly taut nature of both plans, and the apparent inconsistencies between them. The consensus was that the FYPXII targets would be very difficult to achieve, although outsiders may find it hard to judge due to the inherent ambiguities in measuring quality changes, and the potential for significant hidden inflation in growth statistics. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124).

Panel on Growth and Technology in Perestroyka

A part of the proceedings of the first joint Soviet Economy roundtable, focused on the pivotal role of modern technology in perestroyka, is presented in the form of questions and answers reflecting a lively debate between distinguished Soviet and American economists. Adaptation to new technologies is analyzed in light of uskoreniye, plan priorities, and a variety of factors influencing economic growth. Also debated are issues relating to enterprises and industries, particularly within the context of contrasts between the civilian and military economies. Specific issues such as the tradeoffs between centralization and autonomy are discussed in some detail. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 621.

An American View of Economic Relations with the USSR

The current rise in US-USSR trade has its ante cedents, which are discussed briefly in the first section of this paper. Attention is then focused on the basic economic reasons which might be adduced for the manifest increased Soviet interest in expanded economic relations with the United States. Special emphasis is given to the Soviet desire to import advanced Western technology. The salient issues in the current discussions of expanded US-USSR economic rela tions are indicated and examined. These issues include: the administration of Soviet trade, problems related to state trading, credits, most favored nation (MFN) status and potential advantages of expanded economic relations. It is concluded that, while the economic advantages for the United States as a nation are debatable, expanded economic relations may increase our political bargaining strength vis-à-vis the Soviets. Also, the commitment to detente should be pre served, as it is in the interest of us all that this be done.