Hermione C Price

Performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine and the Framingham Risk Equations in Estimating Cardiovascular Disease in the EPIC- Norfolk Cohort

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 3) and the Framingham risk equations (2008) in estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in three populations: 1) individuals with known diabetes; 2) individuals with nondiabetic hyperglycemia, defined as A1C ≥6.0%; and 3) individuals with normoglycemia defined as A1C <6.0%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This was a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40–79 years recruited from U.K. general practices attended a health examination (1993–1998) and were followed for CVD events/death until April 2007. CVD risk estimates were calculated for 10,137 individuals. RESULTS Over 10.1 years, there were 69 CVD events in the diabetes group (25.4%), 160 in the hyperglycemia group (17.7%), and 732 in the normoglycemia group (8.2%). Estimated CVD 10-year risk in the diabetes group was 33 and 37% using the UKPDS and Framingham equations, respectively. In the hyperglycemia group, estimated CVD risks were 31 and 22%, respectively, and for the normoglycemia group risks were 20 and 14%, respectively. There were no significant differences in the ability of the risk equations to discriminate between individuals at different risk of CVD events in each subgroup; both equations overestimated CVD risk. The Framingham equations performed better in the hyperglycemia and normoglycemia groups as they did not overestimate risk as much as the UKPDS Risk Engine, and they classified more participants correctly. CONCLUSIONS Both the UKPDS Risk Engine and Framingham risk equations were moderately effective at ranking individuals and are therefore suitable for resource prioritization. However, both overestimated true risk, which is important when one is using scores to communicate prognostic information to individuals.

Impact of personalized cardiovascular disease risk estimates on physical activity—a randomized controlled trial

Diabet. Med. 28, 363–372 (2011)

The impact of individualised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimates and lifestyle advice on physical activity in individuals at high risk of CVD: a pilot 2 × 2 factorial understanding risk trial

BackgroundThere is currently much interest in encouraging individuals to increase physical activity in order to reduce CVD risk. This study has been designed to determine if personalised CVD risk appreciation can increase physical activity in adults at high risk of CVD.Methods/DesignIn a 2 × 2 factorial design participants are allocated at random to a personalised 10-year CVD risk estimate or numerical CVD risk factor values (systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol and fasting glucose) and, simultaneously, to receive a brief lifestyle advice intervention targeting physical activity, diet and smoking cessation or not. We aim to recruit 200 participants from Oxfordshire primary care practices. Eligibility criteria include adults age 40–70 years, estimated 10-year CVD risk ≥20%, ability to read and write English, no known CVD and no physical disability or other condition reducing the ability to walk. Primary outcome is physical activity measured by ActiGraph accelerometer with biochemical, anthropometrical and psychological measures as additional outcomes. Primary analysis is between group physical activity differences at one month powered to detect a difference of 30,000 total counts per day of physical activity between the groups. Additional analyses will seek to further elucidate the relationship between the provision of risk information, and intention to change behaviour and to determine the impact of both interventions on clinical and anthropometrical measures including fasting and 2 hour plasma glucose, fructosamine, serum cotinine, plasma vitamin C, body fat percentage and blood pressure.DiscussionThis is a pilot trial seeking to demonstrate in a real world setting, proof of principal that provision of personalised risk information can contribute to behaviour changes aimed at reducing CVD risk. This study will increase our understanding of the links between the provision of risk information and behaviour change and if successful, could be used in clinical practice with little or no modification.

Use of focus groups to develop methods to communicate cardiovascular disease risk and potential for risk reduction to people with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND People need to perceive a risk in order to build an intention-to-change behaviour yet our ability to interpret information about risk is highly variable. OBJECTIVES We aimed to use a user-centred design process to develop an animated interface for the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine to illustrate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the potential to reduce this risk. In addition, we sought to use the same approach to develop a brief lifestyle advice intervention. METHODS Three focus groups were held. Participants were provided with examples of materials used to communicate CVD risk and a leaflet containing a draft brief lifestyle advice intervention and considered their potential to increase motivation-to-change behaviours including diet, physical activity, and smoking in order to reduce CVD risk. Discussions were tape-recorded, transcribed and coded and recurring themes sought. RESULTS Sixty-two percent of participants were male, mean age was 66 years (range = 47-76 years) and median age at leaving full-time education was 18 years (range = 15-40 years). Sixteen had type 2 diabetes and none had a prior history of CVD. Recurring themes from focus group discussions included the following: being less numerate is common, CVD risk reduction is important and a clear visual representation aids comprehension. CONCLUSION A simple animated interface of the UKPDS Risk Engine to illustrate CVD risk and the potential for reducing this risk has been developed for use as a motivational tool, along with a brief lifestyle advice intervention. Future work will investigate whether use of this interactive version of the UKPDS Risk Engine and brief lifestyle advice is associated with increased behavioural intentions and changes in health behaviours designed to reduce CVD risk.

Evaluation of a Self-Administered Oral Glucose Tolerance Test

OBJECTIVE To assess the feasibility of using a disposable, self-administered, capillary blood sampling oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) device in a community setting. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eighteen healthy and 12 type 2 diabetic volunteers underwent six 75-g OGTTs using a prototype device in the following three settings: unaided at home (twice); unaided but observed in clinic (twice); and performed by a nurse with simultaneous laboratory glucose assays of 0- and 120-min venous plasma samples (twice). The device displayed no results. A detachable data recorder returned to the clinic provided plasma-equivalent 0- and 120-min glucose values and key parameters, including test date, start and end times, and time taken to consume the glucose drink. RESULTS The device was universally popular with participants and was perceived as easy to use, and the ability to test at home was well liked. Device failures meant that 0- and 120-min glucose values were obtained for only 141 (78%) of the 180 OGTTs performed, independent of setting. Device glucose measurements showed a mean bias compared with laboratory-measured values of +0.9 at 5.0 mmol/L increasing to +4.4 at 15.0 mmol/L. Paired device glucose values were equally reproducible across settings, with repeat testing showing no training effect regardless of setting order. CONCLUSIONS Self-administered OGTTs can be performed successfully by untrained individuals in a community setting. With improved device reliability and appropriate calibration, this novel technology could be used in routine practice to screen people who might need a formal OGTT to confirm the presence of impaired glucose tolerance or diabetes.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular events in diabetes: is there a role for aspirin?

The POPADAD (Prevention Of Progression of Arterial Disease And Diabetes) study did not show a benefit for low-dose aspirin therapy or administration of antioxidants for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease events in individuals with diabetes and asymptomatic peripheral arterial disease. Although low-dose aspirin continues to be recommended in international guidelines, no convincing trial-based evidence exists that supports its routine use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes. This paradox is unhelpful and the guidelines should be relaxed until definitive evidence becomes available.

Life Expectancy in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: Implications for Annuities:

Background. Insurance companies often offer people with diabetes ‘‘enhanced impaired life annuity’’ at preferential rates, in view of their reduced life expectancy. Objective. To assess the appropriateness of ‘‘enhanced impaired life annuity’’ rates for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Patients. There were 4026 subjects with established type 2 diabetes (but not known cardiovascular or other life-threatening diseases) enrolled into the UK Lipids in Diabetes Study. Measurements. Estimated individual life expectancy using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Results. Subjects were a mean (SD) age of 60.7 (8.6) years, had a blood pressure of 141/83 (17/10) mm Hg, total cholesterol level of 4.5 (0.75) mmol/L, HDL cholesterol level of 1.2 (0.29) mmol/L, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) known diabetes duration of 6 (3—11) years, and HbA1c of 8.0% (7.2—9.0). Sixty-five percent were male, 91% white, 4% Afro-Caribbean, 5% Indian-Asian, and 15% current smokers. The UKPDS Outcomes Model median (IQR) estimated age at death was 76.6 (73.8—79.5) years compared with 81.6 (79.4—83.2) years, estimated using the UK Government Actuary’s Department data for a general population of the same age and gender structure. The median (IQR) difference was 4.3 (2.8—6.1) years, a remaining life expectancy reduction of almost one quarter. The highest value annuity identified, which commences payments immediately for a 60-year-old man with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes investing 100,000, did not reflect this difference, offering 7.4K per year compared with 7.0K per year if not diabetic. Conclusions. The UK Government Actuary’s Department data overestimate likely age at death in individuals with type 2 diabetes, and at present, ‘‘enhanced impaired life annuity’’ rates do not provide equity for people with type 2 diabetes. Using a diabetes-specific model to estimate life expectancy could provide valuable information to the annuity industry and permit more equitable annuity rates for those with type 2 diabetes.

Perceptions of heart attack risk amongst individuals with diabetes

AIM Individuals with diabetes are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is good evidence that this risk can be reduced by pharmacotherapies and lifestyle modification. Despite this, knowledge of CVD risk amongst individuals with diabetes remains poor. We undertook a qualitative study to investigate lay perceptions of heart attack risk amongst individuals with diabetes in order to gather information about underlying perceptions concerning risk and risk reduction strategies. METHODS We conducted three focus groups in Oxford using an open-ended question map. Content analysis was performed to identify recurring themes, similar patterns, distinctions and supportive quotations. RESULTS Concern about having a heart attack varied widely. A commonly held view was that a 10-year heart attack risk of 10% or greater was high and being aware of ones risk was important so that lifestyle changes or other interventions could be implemented. Participants consistently viewed physical activity as potentially harmful. Almost all participants sought healthcare and lifestyle advice from their primary healthcare providers in the first instance, preferring this to information in the lay press or government campaigns. CONCLUSION The focus groups have allowed us to better understand lay perceptions of, and underlying assumptions about, CVD risk. These findings may be of use when discussing CVD risk and risk reduction strategies in primary care.

Differences in level of confidence in diabetes care between different groups of trainees: the TOPDOC diabetes study

BackgroundThere is an increasing prevalence of diabetes. Doctors in training, irrespective of specialty, will have patients with diabetes under their care. The aim of this further evaluation of the TOPDOC Diabetes Study data was to identify if there was any variation in confidence in managing diabetes depending on the geographical location of trainees and career aspirations.MethodsAn online national survey using a pre-validated questionnaire was administered to trainee doctors. A 4-point confidence rating scale was used to rate confidence in managing aspects of diabetes care and a 6-point scale used to quantify how often trainees would contribute to the management of patients with diabetes. Responses were grouped depending on which UK country trainees were based and their intended career choice.ResultsTrainees in Northern Ireland reported being less confident in IGT diagnosis, use of IV insulin and peri-operative management and were less likely to adjust oral treatment, contact specialist, educate lifestyle, and optimise treatment. Trainees in Scotland were less likely to contact a specialist, but more likely to educate on lifestyle, change insulin, and offer follow-up advice. In Northern Ireland, Undergraduate (UG) and Postgraduate (PG) training in diagnosis was felt less adequate, PG training in emergencies less adequate, and reporting of need for further training higher. Trainees in Wales felt UG training to be inadequate. In Scotland more trainees felt UG training in diagnosis and optimising treatment was inadequate. Physicians were more likely to report confidence in managing patients with diabetes and to engage in different aspects of diabetes care. Aspiring physicians were less likely to feel the need for more training in diabetes care; however a clear majority still felt they needed more training in all aspects of care.ConclusionsDoctors in training have poor confidence levels dealing with diabetes related care issues. Although there is variability between different groups of trainees according to geographical location and career aspirations, this is a UK wide issue. There should be a UK wide standardised approach to improving training for junior doctors in diabetes care with local training guided by specific needs.

Addition of exenatide to insulin therapy in individuals with type 2 diabetes in UK routine clinical practice

Our aim was to study the impact of adding twice‐daily exenatide in obese patients with type 2 diabetes and poor glycaemic control who were taking insulin therapy, either alone or in combination with oral hypoglycaemic agents (OHAs), in routine clinical practice. Outcomes evaluated were glycaemic control, body weight, insulin dose, tolerability, safety and incidence of hypoglycaemia.