Hervé Borrion

The role of protection measures and their interaction in determining building vulnerability and resilience to bioterrorism

Understanding the risk presented to buildings by bioterrorism has been a topic of research interest in recent years. Risk assessment methodologies and guidelines for the protection of buildings have been developed by a number of researchers, but it remains difficult to quantify the vulnerability and resilience of a building. It is an important issue from both biosecurity investment and operation point of view because different measures have different cost and operation implications. This paper reviews existing risk assessment methodologies, introduces a novel framework for classifying protection measures, and determines the inter-relation of the framework components and building vulnerability and resilience using a fault tree analysis within a biosecurity network system. Future work will develop weighting values for the different protection measures within the framework, allowing for the calculation of bioterrorism resilience of existing buildings, and to provide a decision making guide for building architects, builders, and managers for new and retrofitted buildings.

Threat detection: a framework for security architects and designers of metropolitan rail systems

Metro rail systems (MRS) currently face a serious threat from terrorist attacks – especially through use of explosives. The threat comes at a time when scores of new MRS are under construction or at the planning stage in cities across the world. Designers of these systems need to consider ways to detect explosives without an adverse impact upon passenger comfort and profitability. This paper presents a framework for designers to identify security functions in MRS, understand current methods of threat detection used in MRS and recognise their relationship with other operational requirements. Application of this framework at the planning stage can assist in designing systems where terrorist threats can be better addressed with reduced impact on passenger experience and MRS operations. The application of a framework of analysis inspired by Ekblom’s work to nine functioning MRS yields a concise representation of the major design issues architects and security specialists have to consider for effective integration of security systems in stations.

Scattering centre extraction for extended targets

In this paper, we consider the estimation of scattering centre parameters for the case of extended targets. In general, models are tested on synthetic targets made up of few scatterers. This choice is imposed by the maximum model-order assumed by the method. It is limited by the rank of the observation matrix and by the noise which corrupts the signal subspace. However real-world systems have to deal with complex targets such as aircrafts. For this reason, we revisit the theory for the case of targets made up of a large number of scatterers. We present a novel method for selecting poles corresponding to true physical scatterers. Finally, we propose a technique for reducing the model order based on a modification to the ISAR technique. The resulting 2D-model results in lower noise compared to traditional techniques and can be used for pole selection, data compression, image enhancement and high resolution ISAR-imaging.

A tool-target based approach for simulating a terrorist attack

Probabilistic risk assessment provides a practical approach for assessing the security capabilities of systems. Terrorism risk assessment requires estimation of the probabilities and consequences of hypothetical attacks against a target. In order to address the interdependencies between the different elements present in the target environment we propose to develop a computer-based model. The model can provide relatively realistic determination of the risk of potential terrorist attacks modelled as dynamically changing scenarios. The novelty is that it allows existing and hypothetical security systems to be integrated easily, thus permitting the overall increase or decrease in risk brought about by each system to be calculated. It provides users with a rapid method for determining the implications of a faulty security system, or the introduction of new technologies. Furthermore it allows terrorist attack scripts to be simulated automatically whilst considering the interplay between the different variables that would affect the outcome of the interactions between the real-world systems. It will integrate movement pattern studies and occupancy behaviour providing information surrounding individuals present within the building such that comprehensive risk mitigation can be undertaken.

An Object-Oriented Approach for Modelling Security Scenarios

In this article the authors derive an object-oriented model for structuring threat scenarios. Underpinned by the core principles of realistic evaluation, the model focuses on the specification of events related to the goals of the protagonists. For the development of the model, relevant objects within the ecosystem were specified, and the potential modifications of their properties were linked to causal events. The modelling approach encourages scenario modellers to specify only the relevant elements of the ecosystem and ignore less relevant ones, by identifying the cause-effect relationships between objects. The article illustrates the proposed method through a concrete threat scenario, involving a three-step terrorist attack. The structured format presented in this article provides a useful template that has been tested in the EU FP7 project RIBS. The model was successfully employed to create a computer simulation and communicate the constraints of the problem to a team of engineers, architects and security experts.

Dynamic generation of event trees for risk modelling of terrorist attacks

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to identify and evaluate the risk of terrorist attacks in complex technological security systems in order to improve their safety and performance. PRA requires determining the probabilities and consequences of a number of potential scenarios. In this paper, a dynamic generation of event tree to model different hypothetical attack scenarios is proposed. An innovative approach is described to limit the size of this tree, which employs specific truncation rules for retaining only those scenarios with risk estimates above a certain threshold. The proposed method which takes into account the consequences and the probabilities of attack scenarios allows low probability high risk attack to be considered.

Countering Bioterrorism: Why Smart Buildings Should Have a Code of Ethics

This article examines some of the ethical issues that engineers face in developing bio-protection systems for smart buildings. An innovative approach based on four different containment strategies is used to identify these issues. Subsequent analysis shows that, whilst smart buildings have the potential to prioritize the safety of the group over that of individuals, the practical and ethical implementation of such containment strategies would require systems account for the uncertainty over the clinical state of each individual occupant.

Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia?

Crime rates are known to be affected by changes in crime opportunity structures. Amongst the current causes of change are emerging technologies, and in particular, micro unmanned aerial vehicles (micro UAV). As those devices are becoming increasingly sophisticated, the perceived rewards, difficulties and risks associated with the commission of certain crimes can be significantly influenced. Detection of micro UAVs or those who operate them is therefore increasingly regarded as an important aspect of the prevention of future drone crimes. In this chapter, we empirically demonstrate the possibility of using a conventional radar system to detect micro UAVs flying and hovering in its line of sight, and discuss one the main limitations: target identification. Using a DJI Phantom 2 vision+ drone and a multistatic radar system operating at 2.4 GHz, we show that the radar signal scattered from this target is approximately ten times weaker than that scattered by a person. These experimental results with detection of a micro UAV in time and Doppler domain using a multistatic radar are believed to be the first of this kind reported in the literature.

A user-layered approach for modelling and simulating terrorist attacks

Modelling and simulation techniques offer a comprehensive method for assessing the impact of a terrorist attack, allowing multiple scenarios to be simulated with ease without imposing extensive time or cost constraints. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive model for the different categories of users who are likely to be involved in the modelling and simulation of a terrorist attack. The model focuses on assessing protection measures for implementation within a single building. It takes into account the different types of threat (biological, chemical and explosive) that may occur within or around such a target infrastructure. Finally it considers that a specific company may be required to invest in one or more protection technologies to reduce the risk of an attack occurring, be it a single threat or a combination of threats.

Toward a More Structured Crime Scripting Method

Scripts have been used in different disciplines to characterize how individuals conceptualize the conduct of goal-oriented tasks. Cornish introduced this modelling approach to the field of environmental criminology as a more systematic way to identify offenders’ decisions during the commission of crime. Despite the growing number of articles about crime scripts, there is limited information about the scripting process itself. In particular, there is no publication describing all of the activities involved in the scripting of crime in a comprehensive manner. As a result, the procedural aspects of physical and cyber crimes are predominantly modelled using intuitive rather than structured methods. To fill in this gap, the current study introduces the concept of crime script lifecycle and examines the stages involved in crime scripting process. Following a bottom-up approach, the research involved searching for information relevant to the production of crime scripts and synthesizing the results to improve crime scripting practice and create a roadmap for future work in this field.