Herwig Leirs

Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949–1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.

Search for the Ebola Virus Reservoir in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo: Reflections on a Vertebrate Collection

A 3-month ecologic investigation was done to identify the reservoir of Ebola virus following the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Efforts focused on the fields where the putative primary case had worked but included other habitats near Kikwit. Samples were collected from 3066 vertebrates and tested for the presence of antibodies to Ebola (subtype Zaire) virus: All tests were negative, and attempts to isolate Ebola virus were unsuccessful. The investigation was hampered by a lack of information beyond the daily activities of the primary case, a lack of information on Ebola virus ecology, which precluded the detailed study of select groups of animals, and sample-size limitations for rare species. The epidemiology of Ebola hemorrhagic fever suggests that humans have only intermittent contact with the virus, which complicates selection of target species. Further study of the epidemiology of human outbreaks to further define the environmental contact of primary cases would be of great value.

Environmental conditions and Puumala virus transmission in Belgium.

BackgroundNon-vector-borne zoonoses such as Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) can be transmitted directly, by physical contact between infected and susceptible hosts, or indirectly, with the environment as an intermediate. The objective of this study is to better understand the causal link between environmental features and PUUV prevalence in bank vole population in Belgium, and hence with transmission risk to humans. Our hypothesis was that environmental conditions controlling the direct and indirect transmission paths differ, such that the risk of transmission to humans is not only determined by host abundance. We explored the relationship between, on one hand, environmental variables and, on the other hand, host abundance, PUUV prevalence in the host, and human cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE). Statistical analyses were carried out on 17 field sites situated in Belgian broadleaf forests.ResultsLinear regressions showed that landscape attributes, particularly landscape configuration, influence the abundance of hosts in broadleaf forests. Based on logistic regressions, we show that PUUV prevalence among bank voles is more linked to variables favouring the survival of the virus in the environment, and thus the indirect transmission: low winter temperatures are strongly linked to prevalence among bank voles, and high soil moisture is linked to the number of NE cases among humans. The transmission risk to humans therefore depends on the efficiency of the indirect transmission path. Human risk behaviours, such as the propensity for people to go in forest areas that best support the virus, also influence the number of human cases.ConclusionThe transmission risk to humans of non-vector-borne zoonoses such as PUUV depends on a combination of various environmental factors. To understand the complex causal pathways between the environment and disease risk, one should distinguish between environmental factors related to the abundance of hosts such as land-surface attributes, landscape configuration, and climate – i.e., host ecology, – and environmental factors related to PUUV prevalence, mainly winter temperatures and soil moisture – i.e., virus ecology. Beyond a threshold abundance of hosts, environmental factors favouring the indirect transmission path (soil and climate) can better predict the number of NE cases among humans than factors influencing the abundance of hosts.

Geographic distribution and ecological niche of plague in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundPlague is a rapidly progressing, serious illness in humans that is likely to be fatal if not treated. It remains a public health threat, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In spite of plagues highly focal nature, a thorough ecological understanding of the general distribution pattern of plague across sub-Saharan Africa has not been established to date. In this study, we used human plague data from sub-Saharan Africa for 1970–2007 in an ecological niche modeling framework to explore the potential geographic distribution of plague and its ecological requirements across Africa.ResultsWe predict a broad potential distributional area of plague occurrences across sub-Saharan Africa. General tests of models transferability suggest that our model can anticipate the potential distribution of plague occurrences in Madagascar and northern Africa. However, generality and predictive ability tests using regional subsets of occurrence points demonstrate the models to be unable to predict independent occurrence points outside the training region accurately. Visualizations show plague to occur in diverse landscapes under wide ranges of environmental conditions.ConclusionWe conclude that the typical focality of plague, observed in sub-Saharan Africa, is not related to fragmented and insular environmental conditions manifested at a coarse continental scale. However, our approach provides a foundation for testing hypotheses concerning focal distribution areas of plague and their links with historical and environmental factors.

Application of real-time PCR in Ghana, a Buruli ulcer-endemic country, confirms the presence of Mycobacterium ulcerans in the environment

This study reports the first successful application of real-time PCR for the detection of Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer (BU), in Ghana, a BU-endemic country. Environmental samples and organs of small mammals were analyzed. The real-time PCR assays confirmed the presence of M. ulcerans in a water sample collected in a BU-endemic village in the Ashanti Region.

The Year of the Rat ends : time to fight hunger!

This paper investigates the importance of ecologically based rodent management in the light of the current food crisis, and the potential effects of this approach on the position of the undernourished. Hunger and food prices are on the rise owing to shortages that can be traced to reasons such as climatic extremes, use of crops for biofuels, reduced growth in yields which lag behind population growth, reduced world stocks and lack of sufficient investment in maintaining the irrigation infrastructure. For the undernourished this is problematic as they are most vulnerable to the rise in food prices. Very often, agricultural experts focus on an increase in agricultural production to reduce food prices. It is postulated in this article that almost 280 million undernourished could additionally benefit if more attention were paid to reducing pre- and post-harvest losses by rodents. Moreover, rodent-borne diseases would decrease, diseases that can be catastrophic to the livelihoods of the poorest of the poor.

Human plague occurrences in Africa: an overview from 1877 to 2008.

Plague remains a public health concern worldwide, but particularly in Africa. Despite the long-standing history of human plague, it is difficult to get a historical and recent overview of the general situation. We searched and screened available information sources on human plague occurrences in African countries and compiled information on when, where and how many cases occurred in a centralised database. We found records that plague was probably already present before the third pandemic and that hundreds of thousands of human infections have been reported in 26 countries since 1877. In the first 30 years of the 20th century, the number of human cases steadily increased to reach a maximum in 1929. From then on the number decreased and fell below 250 after 1945. Since the 1980s, again increasingly more human infections have been reported with the vast majority of cases notified in East Africa and Madagascar. We show that public health concerns regarding the current plague situation are justified and that the disease should not be neglected, despite the sometimes questionability of the numbers of cases. We conclude that improving plague surveillance strategies is absolutely necessary to obtain a clear picture of the plague situation in endemic regions.

Are populations of European earwigs, Forficula auricularia, density dependent?

Biocontrol using naturally occurring predators is often limited by population parameters of those predators. Earwigs, Forficula auricularia L. (Dermaptera: Forficulidae), are important predators in fruit orchards. They are capable of suppressing outbreaks of pest species, such as pear psyllid and various apple aphid species. Earwigs therefore play an important role in integrated pest management in fruit orchards and are essential in organic top fruit cultures. However, earwig populations are very unstable, showing large between‐year variation in densities, which limits their practical use. Extensive knowledge of regulating processes of populations is therefore crucial for efficient orchard management. A 2‐year phenological study in several apple and pear orchards in Belgium showed a significant displacement of third instars during the second brood in relation to the presence of adults. We also observed a yearly population crash at the time of moulting into adults. This population decrease was correlated with earwig numbers at peak density. The crash occurred at lower earwig densities in apple orchards than in pear orchards. Six possible regulating mechanisms for this density‐dependent decrease are discussed: (1) migration, (2) pesticides or orchard management, (3) starvation, (4) pathogens, (5) parasites and parasitoids, and (6) predation or cannibalism. If we can identify these regulating processes, specific management activities could be developed to prevent the population crash, hereby increasing population densities in the orchards.

Adaptability of large carnivores to changing anthropogenic food sources: diet change of spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) during Christian fasting period in northern Ethiopia

Adaptability of large carnivores to changing anthropogenic food sources: diet change of spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) during Christian fasting period in northern Ethiopia Gidey Yirga*, HansH. De Iongh, Herwig Leirs, KindeyaGebrihiwot, Jozef Deckers andHansBauer Department of Biology, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 3072, Mekelle, Ethiopia; Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, Leiden, TheNetherlands; Evolutionary EcologyGroup, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerpen, Belgium; Department of Agro-Ecology, Aarhus University, Forsogsvej 1, 4200 Slagelse, Denmark; Department of LandResourceManagement and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231,Mekelle, Ethiopia; and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Catholic University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, B-3001Heverlee, Belgium

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

BackgroundHuman cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacteriums wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans.ResultsWe find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years.ConclusionsCentral Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108