Hester F. Lingsma

Time to Treatment With Endovascular Thrombectomy and Outcomes From Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE Endovascular thrombectomy with second-generation devices is beneficial for patients with ischemic stroke due to intracranial large-vessel occlusions. Delineation of the association of treatment time with outcomes would help to guide implementation. OBJECTIVE To characterize the period in which endovascular thrombectomy is associated with benefit, and the extent to which treatment delay is related to functional outcomes, mortality, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Demographic, clinical, and brain imaging data as well as functional and radiologic outcomes were pooled from randomized phase 3 trials involving stent retrievers or other second-generation devices in a peer-reviewed publication (by July 1, 2016). The identified 5 trials enrolled patients at 89 international sites. EXPOSURES Endovascular thrombectomy plus medical therapy vs medical therapy alone; time to treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was degree of disability (mRS range, 0-6; lower scores indicating less disability) at 3 months, analyzed with the common odds ratio (cOR) to detect ordinal shift in the distribution of disability over the range of the mRS; secondary outcomes included functional independence at 3 months, mortality by 3 months, and symptomatic hemorrhagic transformation. RESULTS Among all 1287 patients (endovascular thrombectomy + medical therapy [n = 634]; medical therapy alone [n = 653]) enrolled in the 5 trials (mean age, 66.5 years [SD, 13.1]; women, 47.0%), time from symptom onset to randomization was 196 minutes (IQR, 142 to 267). Among the endovascular group, symptom onset to arterial puncture was 238 minutes (IQR, 180 to 302) and symptom onset to reperfusion was 286 minutes (IQR, 215 to 363). At 90 days, the mean mRS score was 2.9 (95% CI, 2.7 to 3.1) in the endovascular group and 3.6 (95% CI, 3.5 to 3.8) in the medical therapy group. The odds of better disability outcomes at 90 days (mRS scale distribution) with the endovascular group declined with longer time from symptom onset to arterial puncture: cOR at 3 hours, 2.79 (95% CI, 1.96 to 3.98), absolute risk difference (ARD) for lower disability scores, 39.2%; cOR at 6 hours, 1.98 (95% CI, 1.30 to 3.00), ARD, 30.2%; cOR at 8 hours,1.57 (95% CI, 0.86 to 2.88), ARD, 15.7%; retaining statistical significance through 7 hours and 18 minutes. Among 390 patients who achieved substantial reperfusion with endovascular thrombectomy, each 1-hour delay to reperfusion was associated with a less favorable degree of disability (cOR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76 to 0.93]; ARD, -6.7%) and less functional independence (OR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.92], ARD, -5.2% [95% CI, -8.3% to -2.1%]), but no change in mortality (OR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.93 to 1.34]; ARD, 1.5% [95% CI, -0.9% to 4.2%]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this individual patient data meta-analysis of patients with large-vessel ischemic stroke, earlier treatment with endovascular thrombectomy + medical therapy compared with medical therapy alone was associated with lower degrees of disability at 3 months. Benefit became nonsignificant after 7.3 hours.

Early prognosis in traumatic brain injury: from prophecies to predictions

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a heterogeneous condition that encompasses a broad spectrum of disorders. Outcome can be highly variable, particularly in more severely injured patients. Despite the association of many variables with outcome, prognostic predictions are notoriously difficult to make. Multivariable analysis has identified age, clinical severity, CT abnormalities, systemic insults (hypoxia and hypotension), and laboratory variables as relevant factors to include in models to predict outcome in individual patients. Advances in statistical modelling and the availability of large datasets have facilitated the development of prognostic models that have greater performance and generalisability. Two prediction models are currently available, both of which have been developed on large datasets with state-of-the-art methods, and offer new opportunities. We see great potential for their use in clinical practice, research, and policy making, as well as for assessment of the quality of health-care delivery. Continued development, refinement, and validation is advocated, together with assessment of the clinical impact of prediction models, including treatment response.

Spreading depolarisations and outcome after traumatic brain injury: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND Pathological waves of spreading mass neuronal depolarisation arise repeatedly in injured, but potentially salvageable, grey matter in 50-60% of patients after traumatic brain injury (TBI). We aimed to ascertain whether spreading depolarisations are independently associated with unfavourable neurological outcome. METHODS We did a prospective, observational, multicentre study at seven neurological centres. We enrolled 109 adults who needed neurosurgery for acute TBI. Spreading depolarisations were monitored by electrocorticography during intensive care and were classified as cortical spreading depression (CSD) if they took place in spontaneously active cortex or as isoelectric spreading depolarisation (ISD) if they took place in isoelectric cortex. Investigators who treated patients and assessed outcome were masked to electrocorticographic results. Scores on the extended Glasgow outcome scale at 6 months were fitted to a multivariate model by ordinal regression. Prognostic score (based on variables at admission, as validated by the IMPACT studies) and spreading depolarisation category (none, CSD only, or at least one ISD) were assessed as outcome predictors. FINDINGS Six individuals were excluded because of poor-quality electrocorticography. A total of 1328 spreading depolarisations arose in 58 (56%) patients. In 38 participants, all spreading depolarisations were classified as CSD; 20 patients had at least one ISD. By multivariate analysis, both prognostic score (p=0·0009) and spreading depolarisation category (p=0·0008) were significant predictors of neurological outcome. CSD and ISD were associated with an increased risk of unfavourable outcome (common odds ratios 1·56 [95% CI 0·72-3·37] and 7·58 [2·64-21·8], respectively). Addition of depolarisation category to the regression model increased the proportion of variance in outcome that could be attributed to predictors from 9% to 22%, compared with the prognostic score alone. INTERPRETATION Spreading depolarisations were associated with unfavourable outcome, after controlling for conventional prognostic variables. The possibility that spreading depolarisations have adverse effects on the traumatically injured brain, and therefore might be a target in the treatment of TBI, deserves further research. FUNDING US Army CDMRP PH/TBI research programme.

Magnetic resonance imaging improves 3‐month outcome prediction in mild traumatic brain injury

To determine the clinical relevance, if any, of traumatic intracranial findings on early head computed tomography (CT) and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to 3‐month outcome in mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI).

Epidemiology of traumatic brain injury in Europe

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a critical public health and socio-economic problem throughout the world, making epidemiological monitoring of incidence, prevalence and outcome of TBI necessary. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of traumatic brain injury in Europe and to evaluate the methodology of incidence studies.MethodWe performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of articles describing the epidemiology of TBI in European countries. A search was conducted in the PubMed electronic database using the terms: epidemiology, incidence, brain injur*, head injur* and Europe. Only articles published in English and reporting on data collected in Europe between 1990 and 2014 were included.ResultsIn total, 28 epidemiological studies on TBI from 16 European countries were identified in the literature. A great variation was found in case definitions and case ascertainment between studies. Falls and road traffic accidents (RTA) were the two most frequent causes of TBI, with falls being reported more frequently than RTA. In most of the studies a peak TBI incidence was seen in the oldest age groups. In the meta-analysis, an overall incidence rate of 262 per 100,000 for admitted TBI was derived.ConclusionsInterpretation of published epidemiologic studies is confounded by differences in inclusion criteria and case ascertainment. Nevertheless, changes in epidemiological patterns are found: falls are now the most common cause of TBI, most notably in elderly patients. Improvement of the quality of standardised data collection for TBI is mandatory for reliable monitoring of epidemiological trends and to inform appropriate targeting of prevention campaigns.

Re-Orientation of Clinical Research in Traumatic Brain Injury: Report of an International Workshop on Comparative Effectiveness Research

During the National Neurotrauma Symposium 2010, the DG Research of the European Commission and the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NIH/NINDS) organized a workshop on comparative effectiveness research (CER) in traumatic brain injury (TBI). This workshop reviewed existing approaches to improve outcomes of TBI patients. It had two main outcomes: First, it initiated a process of re-orientation of clinical research in TBI. Second, it provided ideas for a potential collaboration between the European Commission and the NIH/NINDS to stimulate research in TBI. Advances in provision of care for TBI patients have resulted from observational studies, guideline development, and meta-analyses of individual patient data. In contrast, randomized controlled trials have not led to any identifiable major advances. Rigorous protocols and tightly selected populations constrain generalizability. The workshop addressed additional research approaches, summarized the greatest unmet needs, and highlighted priorities for future research. The collection of high-quality clinical databases, associated with systems biology and CER, offers substantial opportunities. Systems biology aims to identify multiple factors contributing to a disease and addresses complex interactions. Effectiveness research aims to measure benefits and risks of systems of care and interventions in ordinary settings and broader populations. These approaches have great potential for TBI research. Although not new, they still need to be introduced to and accepted by TBI researchers as instruments for clinical research. As with therapeutic targets in individual patient management, so it is with research tools: one size does not fit all.

Assessing the incremental value of diagnostic and prognostic markers: A review and illustration

Eur J Clin Invest 2011

Prediction of outcome after moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: External validation of the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models*

Objective: The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation after Significant Head injury prognostic models for prediction of outcome after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Design: External validation study. Patients: We considered five new datasets with a total of 9,036 patients, comprising three randomized trials and two observational series, containing prospectively collected individual traumatic brain injury patient data. Measurements and Main Results: Outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome, based on the Glasgow Outcome Score at 6 months after injury. To assess performance, we studied the discrimination of the models (by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves), and calibration (by comparison of the mean observed to predicted outcomes and calibration slopes). The highest discrimination was found in the Trauma Audit and Research Network trauma registry (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.83 and 0.87), and the lowest discrimination in the Pharmos trial (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.65 and 0.71). Although differences in predictor effects between development and validation populations were found (calibration slopes varying between 0.58 and 1.53), the differences in discrimination were largely explained by differences in case mix in the validation studies. Calibration was good, the fraction of observed outcomes generally agreed well with the mean predicted outcome. No meaningful differences were noted in performance between the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury models. More complex models discriminated slightly better than simpler variants. Conclusions: Since both the International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials and the Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury prognostic models show good generalizability to more recent data, they are valid instruments to quantify prognosis in traumatic brain injury.

Risk and Epidemiological Time Trends of Gastric Cancer in Lynch Syndrome Carriers in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND & AIMS Although gastric cancer forms part of the Lynch syndrome tumor spectrum, the risk of developing gastric cancer in Lynch syndrome families is unknown, resulting in a lack of clear guidelines for surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate incidence trends and risk of developing gastric cancer among Lynch syndrome mutation carriers in a Western population. METHODS Lynch syndrome mutation carriers were selected from the Dutch Hereditary Cancer Registry. The gastric cancer incidence in Lynch syndrome mutation carriers was compared to the gastric cancer incidence in the Dutch population between 1970 and 2003. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated by a Poisson model. Cumulative risks were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS Overall, 2014 Lynch syndrome mutation carriers were identified. Gastric cancer was diagnosed in 32 (1.6%) subjects (male/female: 21/11), 22 (69%) of them had a negative family history of gastric cancer. The standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer was 3.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.1-5.2) and showed a nonsignificant decline between 1970 and 2003 (P = .30). Absolute risk of developing gastric cancer also showed no significant change over time (P = .51). Lifetime risk of developing gastric cancer was 8.0% in males vs 5.3% in females (P = .02), and 4.8% and 9% for MLH1 and MSH2 carriers, respectively. None of the 378 MSH6 carriers developed gastric cancer (P = .002 vs MLH1 and MSH2 combined lifetime risk). CONCLUSIONS Lynch syndrome mutation carriers have a substantial risk for gastric cancer, in particular patients with an MLH1 or MSH2 mutation. Family history for gastric cancer is a poor indicator for individual risk. Surveillance gastroscopy for Lynch syndrome patients carrying an MLH1 or MSH2 mutation should therefore be considered.

Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot: Multicenter Implementation of the Common Data Elements for Traumatic Brain Injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is among the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, with enormous negative social and economic impacts. The heterogeneity of TBI combined with the lack of precise outcome measures have been central to the discouraging results from clinical trials. Current approaches to the characterization of disease severity and outcome have not changed in more than three decades. This prospective multicenter observational pilot study aimed to validate the feasibility of implementing the TBI Common Data Elements (TBI-CDEs). A total of 650 subjects who underwent computed tomography (CT) scans in the emergency department within 24 h of injury were enrolled at three level I trauma centers and one rehabilitation center. The TBI-CDE components collected included: 1) demographic, social and clinical data; 2) biospecimens from blood drawn for genetic and proteomic biomarker analyses; 3) neuroimaging studies at 2 weeks using 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); and 4) outcome assessments at 3 and 6 months. We describe how the infrastructure was established for building data repositories for clinical data, plasma biomarkers, genetics, neuroimaging, and multidimensional outcome measures to create a high quality and accessible information commons for TBI research. Risk factors for poor follow-up, TBI-CDE limitations, and implementation strategies are described. Having demonstrated the feasibility of implementing the TBI-CDEs through successful recruitment and multidimensional data collection, we aim to expand to additional study sites. Furthermore, interested researchers will be provided early access to the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI (TRACK-TBI) data set for collaborative opportunities to more precisely characterize TBI and improve the design of future clinical treatment trials. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01565551.).