Hideo Harasawa

Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries – case study on ski activities –

To evaluate the influences of air temperature change on ski activities, thechanges in the numbers of skiers visiting seven ski areas in Japan were predicted in conjunction with climate change. First, having built a model forpredicting snow depth based on the budgets of water and heat using the air temperature and precipitation data collected nationwide, we demonstrated goodagreement between the predicted and observed snow depths (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 81% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Second, the relationshipbetween the number of skiers and the depth of snow at one of the seven ski areaswas analyzed statistically on a daily basis. In addition, we did the same on amonthly basis at six other ski areas and compared the observed and predictednumbers of skiers (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 94% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Using this model and the relationship between daily snow depth andnumber of skiers, the changes in skier numbers in the seven ski areas werepredicted for several scenarios with respect to air temperature changes; e.g. a more than 30% drop in visiting skiers was forecast in almost all ski areas in Japan except northern region (Hokkaido) and/or high altitude regions (center of the Main Island) under the condition of a 3 °C increase in air temperature. The vulnerability of the ski industry and its adaptationto climate change are discussed.

Forecasting the changes in lake water quality in response to climate changes, using past relationships between meteorological conditions and water quality

In order to forecast the effects of global warming on the water environment, the relationship between meteorological conditions and lake water quality was investigated statistically using 17 years of monitoring data obtained from a shallow eutrophic lake, Lake Kasumigaura. The usefulness of the DPY (difference from the previous year) method was confirmed for removing the watershed change (e.g. land cover, population, etc.). From the analysis of the relationships between air temperature and water temperature on a monthly basis, the delay of time was seen to be negligible, but the gain was reduced due to the high frequency of change. As the amount of precipitation affected their relationship on a yearly basis, the slopes of 1·0–1·2 °C water temperature/ °C air temperature were determined with the DPY method by excluding the combinations of the years having large difference in annual precipitation. The deterioration of lake water quality, such as increases in COD (chemical oxygen demand) and decreases in transparency, was quantitatively assessed as corresponding to an increase in air temperature. In addition, we found that higher precipitation led to high nitrogen concentrations on a monthly basis, as well as on a yearly basis, probably induced by both the runoff of soilwater having high concentrations and the lowering of residence times of lake water. Copyright

A survey of national sustainable development indicators

We surveyed sustainable development indicators (SDIs) adopted by 28 national governments, regions, and international organisations and compiled them into a database. The aims of this study were to understand the elements of sustainable development (SD), examine SDIs developed in certain fields and countries, and determine future tasks to improve SDI development. A total of 1,790 indicators were surveyed and classified into 77 subcategories in four categories. Most of the indicators measured various SD elements, and the indicators reflected each countrys developmental stage and specific concerns. Several advanced or unique indicators were also identified. Five major tasks in the future development of SDIs were identified: 1) creating time-conscious indicators; 2) measuring interactions between elements of a system; 3) dealing with transboundary issues in a national SDI system; 4) measuring SD quality (including subjective elements); 5) including ordinary citizens by showing the relationships between SDI and everyday life.

Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change

AIM/Impact model, an integrated assessment model of climate change impacts, has been developed in order to evaluate future climate change impacts and to support decision making on the global/Asia scale. AIM/Impact model consists of sub-models for evaluating impacts on major vulnerable sectors (water, agriculture, ecosystem, human health) and linkages among them. In this chapter, the general framework of AIM/Impact and examples of model outputs are introduced with a brief description of the sub-models.

Vulnerability of Japan to Climate Change

The impacts of climate change on various sectors are reviewed in chapters 1 to 6 of this report. In this chapter, other sectors susceptible to the predicted future changes in climate, especially extreme climatic events such as heat wave, typhoon, drought, and so forth, are reviewed based on research papers and reports. In addition, the combined impacts of global warming and local environmental pollution in Japan are also summarized in this chapter.

Carrying capacity and vulnerability of four Asian lakes: A comparative study

Abstract To present axes for evaluating the water resources, lake environment and water use in a lake and its watershed, a comparative study was done for four East Asian lakes; lake Kasumigaura (Japan), Lake Laguna (Philippines), Lake Songkhla (Thailand) and Lake Dianchi (China). Two axes were then determined from the relationship between: (1) water use and water supply rate, and (2) water use and water quality. To clarify the meanings ‘carrying capacity’ and ‘vulnerability’, the maximum population density in the lake basin and total nitrogen concentration in the lake water were calculated and discussed to decide the direction of environmentally sound management of the drainage basin.

Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for the Analysis of Global Climate Change

Abstract The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for evaluating policy options to stabilize global climate change has been developed. This model has three main submodels; the AIM/emission model for predicting greenhouse gas emissions, the AIM/climate model for estimating global and regional climate change, and the AIM/impact model for estimating the impacts of global warming. It focuses on policy assessment in the Asian-Pacific region and has the ability to prepare regional overviews. A high-quality spatial data-base support these functions. It is a collaborative project, and is being conducted with institutes of various countries in the region. Using this model, greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on climate change and regional ecological systems have been estimated.