Hiroki Tokinaga

Indian ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño.

Significant climate anomalies persist through the summer (June-August) after El Nino dissipates in spring over the equatorial Pacific. They include the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, increased tropical tropospheric temperature, an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific, and increased mei-yu-baiu rainfall over East Asia. The cause of these lingering El Nino effects during summer is investigated using observations and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The results herein indicate that the TIO warming acts like a capacitor anchoring atmospheric anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Oceans. It causes tropospheric temperature to increase by a moist-adiabatic adjustment in deep convection, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific. In the northwest Pacific, this equatorial Kelvin wave induces northeasterly surface wind anomalies, and the resultant divergence in the subtropics triggers suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone. The GCM results support this Kelvin wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism. In response to a prescribed SST increase over the TIO, the model simulates the Kelvin wave with low pressure on the equator as well as suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific. An additional experiment further indicates that the north Indian Ocean warming is most important for the Kelvin wave and northwest Pacific anticyclone, a result corroborated by observations. These results have important implications for the predictability of Indo-western Pacific summer climate: the spatial distribution and magnitude of the TIO warming, rather than simply whether there is an El Nino in the preceding winter, affect summer climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific and East Asia.

Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming

Global mean sea surface temperature (SST) has risen steadily over the past century, but the overall pattern contains extensive and often uncertain spatial variations, with potentially important effects on regional precipitation. Observations suggest a slowdown of the zonal atmospheric overturning circulation above the tropical Pacific Ocean (the Walker circulation) over the twentieth century. Although this change has been attributed to a muted hydrological cycle forced by global warming, the effect of SST warming patterns has not been explored and quantified. Here we perform experiments using an atmospheric model, and find that SST warming patterns are the main cause of the weakened Walker circulation over the past six decades (1950–2009). The SST trend reconstructed from bucket-sampled SST and night-time marine surface air temperature features a reduced zonal gradient in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, a change consistent with subsurface temperature observations. Model experiments with this trend pattern robustly simulate the observed changes, including the Walker circulation slowdown and the eastward shift of atmospheric convection from the Indonesian maritime continent to the central tropical Pacific. Our results cannot establish whether the observed changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic global warming, but they do show that the observed slowdown in the Walker circulation is presumably driven by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes.

Decadal Shift in El Nino Influences on Indo-Western Pacific and East Asian Climate in the 1970s*

Abstract El Nino’s influence on the subtropical northwest (NW) Pacific climate increased after the climate regime shift of the 1970s. This is manifested in well-organized atmospheric anomalies of suppressed convection and a surface anticyclone during the summer (June–August) of the El Nino decay year [JJA(1)], a season when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have dissipated. In situ observations and ocean–atmospheric reanalyses are used to investigate mechanisms for the interdecadal change. During JJA(1), the influence of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the NW Pacific is indirect, being mediated by SST conditions over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The results here show that interdecadal change in this influence is due to changes in the TIO response to ENSO. During the postregime shift epoch, the El Nino teleconnection excites downwelling Rossby waves in the south TIO by anticyclonic wind curls. These Rossby waves propagate slowly westward, causing persistent SST warmi...

Ocean Frontal Effects on the Vertical Development of Clouds over the Western North Pacific: In Situ and Satellite Observations*

Abstract A suite of shipboard and satellite observations are analyzed and synthesized to investigate the three-dimensional structure of clouds and influences from sea surface temperature fronts over the western North Pacific. Sharp transitions are observed across the Kuroshio Extension (KE) front in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) and its clouds. The ocean’s influence appears to extend beyond the MABL, with higher cloud tops in altitude along the KE front than the surroundings. In winter, intense turbulent heat release from the ocean takes place on the southern flank of the KE front, where the cloud top penetrates above the MABL and reaches the midtroposphere. In this band of high cloud tops, frequent lightning activity is observed. The results of this study suggest a sea level pressure mechanism for which the temperature gradient in the MABL induces strong surface wind convergence on the southern flank of the KE front, deepening the clouds there. In early summer, sea fog frequently occurs on...

Atmospheric Response to the Gulf Stream: Seasonal Variations*

Abstract The atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream front in sea surface temperature is investigated using high-resolution data from satellite observations and operational analysis and forecast. Two types of atmospheric response are observed with different seasonality and spatial distribution. In winter, surface wind convergence is strong over the Gulf Stream proper between Cape Hatteras and the Great Banks, consistent with atmospheric pressure adjustments to sea surface temperature gradients. The surface convergence is accompanied by enhanced precipitation and the frequent occurrence of midlevel clouds. Local evaporation and precipitation are roughly in balance over the Florida Current and the western Gulf Stream proper. In summer, strong precipitation, enhanced high clouds, and increased lightning flash rate are observed over the Florida Current and the western Gulf Stream proper, without seasonal surface convergence enhancement. For the precipitation maximum over the Florida Current, local evaporation...

Regional Patterns of Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Change: Evidence of the Walker Circulation Weakening*

AbstractRegional patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific climate change are investigated over the last six decades based on a synthesis of in situ observations and ocean model simulations, with a focus on physical consistency among sea surface temperature (SST), cloud, sea level pressure (SLP), surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature. A newly developed bias-corrected surface wind dataset displays westerly trends over the western tropical Pacific and easterly trends over the tropical Indian Ocean, indicative of a slowdown of the Walker circulation. This pattern of wind change is consistent with that of observed SLP change showing positive trends over the Maritime Continent and negative trends over the central equatorial Pacific. Suppressed moisture convergence over the Maritime Continent is largely due to surface wind changes, contributing to observed decreases in marine cloudiness and land precipitation there.Furthermore, observed ocean mixed layer temperatures indicate a reduction in zonal contrast in t...

Wave- and Anemometer-Based Sea Surface Wind (WASWind) for Climate Change Analysis*

Abstract Ship-based measurements of sea surface wind speed display a spurious upward trend due to increases in anemometer height. To correct this bias, the authors constructed a new sea surface wind dataset from ship observations of wind speed and wind wave height archived in the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). The Wave- and Anemometer-based Sea surface Wind (WASWind) dataset is available for wind velocity and scalar speed at monthly resolution on a 4° × 4° longitude–latitude grid from 1950 to 2008. It substantially reduces the upward trend in wind speed through height correction for anemometer-measured winds, rejection of spurious Beaufort winds, and use of estimated winds from wind wave height. The reduced global upward trend is smallest among the existing global datasets of in situ observations and comparable with those of reanalysis products. Despite the significant reduction of globally averaged wind speed trend, WASWind features rich spatial structures in trend patter...

Interdecadal Variations in ENSO Teleconnection to the Indo–Western Pacific for 1870–2007*

AbstractSlow modulation of interannual variability and its relationship to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated for the period of 1870–2007 using shipboard surface meteorological observations along a frequently traveled track across the north Indian Ocean (NIO; from the Gulf of Aden through Malacca Strait) and the South China Sea (to Luzon Strait). During the decades in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century and in the late twentieth century, the El Nino–induced NIO warming persists longer than during the 1910s–mid-1970s, well into the summer following the peak of El Nino. During the epochs of the prolonged NIO warming, rainfall drops and sea level pressure rises over the tropical northwest Pacific in summer following El Nino. Conversely, during the period when the NIO warming dissipates earlier, these atmospheric anomalies are not well developed. This supports the Indian Ocean capacitor concept as a mechanism prolonging El Nino influence into summer through the persistent Indian Ocean...

SST-Induced Surface Wind Variations over the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence : Satellite and In Situ Observations

Abstract The confluence of the Brazil–Malvinas Currents maintains strong sea surface temperature (SST) fronts in the midlatitude southwestern Atlantic year-round. SST effects on near-surface stability and surface wind variations are examined in this region using satellite and in situ datasets. Satellite observations show strong (weak) surface wind speeds over the warm Brazil (cold Malvinas) Current. A novel feature of this study is the construction of a high-resolution surface meteorological dataset that is based on historical ship observations. Analysis of this new in situ dataset reveals an increased (reduced) sea–air temperature difference over the Brazil (Malvinas) Current, indicating destabilization (stabilization) in the atmospheric boundary layer. These results are consistent with the SST-induced vertical mixing mechanism for wind adjustment. The SST effect on the near-surface atmosphere is observed both in the climatology and on interannual time scales in the Brazil–Malvinas confluence. Along a zo...

Observations of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Transitions across the Summer Kuroshio Extension

Abstract The baiu and Kuroshio Extension (KE) fronts, both zonally oriented and nearly collocated east of Japan, are the dominant summertime features of the atmosphere and ocean, respectively, over the midlatitude northwest Pacific. An atmospheric sounding campaign was conducted on board the R/V Roger Revelle during the 2005 summer. Transects of soundings across the KE front are analyzed to study its effects on the atmosphere, along with continuous surface meteorological and ceilometer cloud-base observations. While the KE front remained nearly stationary during the cruise, the baiu front displayed large meridional displacements that changed wind direction across the KE front. The presence of sharp sea surface temperature (SST) gradients anchored by the KE enhanced the thermal and moisture advection, causing substantial changes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) structure. When the baiu front was displaced north of the KE front, southwesterly winds advected warm, humid air from the subtropics...