Hisayuki Kubota

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

AbstractThe long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset.n

Intensity and Inner-Core Structure of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) near Landfall: Doppler Radar Analysis

AbstractThe intensity and inner-core structure of an extremely intense tropical cyclone, Typhoon Haiyan (2013), were examined using real-time ground-based Doppler radar products from the Guiuan radar over the period of about 2.5 h immediately before the storm approached Guiuan in Eastern Samar, Philippines. Haiyan’s wind fields from 2- to 6-km altitude were retrieved by the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) technique from the Doppler velocity data. The GBVTD-retrieved maximum wind speed reached 101 m s–1 at 4-km altitude on the right side of the track. The relatively fast forward speed of Haiyan, about 11 m s–1, increased maximum wind speed on the right hand side of the storm. Azimuthal mean tangential wind increased with height from 2 to 5 km, and a local maximum of 86 m s–1 occurred at 5-km altitude. The central pressure was estimated as 906 hPa with an uncertainty of ±4 hPa by using the GBVTD-retrieved tangential wind and by assuming gradient wind balance. The radius of maximum radar reflecti...

Seasonal march patterns of the summer rainy season in the Philippines and their long-term variability since the late twentieth century

AbstractThis study investigates the seasonal march patterns of rainfall in the Philippines from 1951 to 2012 and their long-term variability. In order to clarify the dominant patterns in the seasonal march of rainfall, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to pentad rainfall data of 30 stations. For the first EOF mode (EOF1), we obtained a pattern related to the summer rainy season. We then applied cluster analysis to the time coefficients of EOF1 in each year to classify the seasonal patterns of the summer rainy season. As a result, the patterns were classified into six clusters. We found a long-term change in the pattern appearances with three anomalous patterns frequently observed since the 1990s: (1) a pattern that has an indistinct dry season and a prolonged peak rainfall, (2) a pattern that has a distinct dry season and an earlier withdrawal of the summer rainy season, resulting in a shortened rainy season, and (3) a pattern with a distinct dry season as well as delayed onset and withdrawal of the summer rainy season. This study also shows the relations between these three patterns and the lower atmospheric circulation at the 850xa0hPa level around the Philippines. Consequently, large positive and negative anomalies in geopotential height were observed around the Philippines for the distinct and indistinct dry seasons, respectively. The duration and condition of the dry season were greatly affected by the strength and location of the subtropical high especially for February–March. It is also noteworthy that the timing of the onset (withdrawal) of the summer rainy season is clearly related to that of the onset of the westerly (northerly) wind in the zonal (meridional) component around the Philippines. Further, the duration and amount of peak rainfall were directly influenced by the strength of the westerly winds in the zonal component. These three anomalous patterns tended to appear in the years when the warm or cold event of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred. This study suggests that the long-term variability in the seasonal march of rainfall is considerably influenced by the variability in ENSO.n

Cold surge event observed by radiosonde observation from the research vessel “Hakuho-maru” over the Philippine Sea in December 2012

AbstractThe thermal energy transfer from the sea surface to the atmosphere associated with a cold surge event was investigated with observations from radiosondes on the research vessel “Hakuho-maru” over the Philippine Sea in December 2012. These observations were analyzed, and the results were compared with those obtained from observations over the East China Sea in the Air Mass Transformation Experiment in 1974 (AMTEX ‘74). The horizontal advection of cold and dry air associated with the cold surge dominated at heights below 850 hPa. In spite of this strong advection, the local temporal variations in the temperature and moisture were small, because the advection was balanced by the transfer of heat and moisture from the sea surface, which is qualitatively the same behavior as observed during the cold surge event in AMTEX ‘74. The eddy transport of the total heat energy from the sea surface to the atmosphere was estimated at about 410 W/m2, which is about half of the maximum value of 780 W/m2 observed during AMTEX ‘74. This result shows the existence of considerable heat transfer from the sea surface to the atmosphere over the Philippine Sea, which is the downstream region of the cold surge, after it passed through the East China Sea.n