Hitoshi Toritani

Modeling of continental-scale crop water requirement and available water resources

The relationship between agricultural water demand and supply has been of interest to government decision makers and scientists because of its importance in water resources management. We developed a water cycle model for eastern Eurasia that can estimate water requirements for crop growth and evaluate the demand–supply relationships of agricultural water use on a continental scale. To produce an appropriate water cycle, the model was constructed based on small drainage basins. To validate the model performance with respect to simulated runoff, which is here considered as the available water resource, we compared our outputs with those of other models and with observed river discharges. The results show that this model is comparable to other models and that it is applicable for the evaluation of water cycles at continental scale. We defined two types of crop water deficits (CWDs) as indicators of agricultural water demand. These were formulated by considering the physical processes of crop water use; we did not include water consumption that is dependent on cultivation management practices, such as water losses in irrigation systems. We assessed the reliability of our indicators by comparison with indicators from other studies and with published statistics related to agricultural water use. These comparisons suggest that our indicators are consistent with independent data and can provide a reasonable representation of water requirements for crop growth.

Features of the AFFRC model for evaluating the relationship between the water cycle and rice production

This paper introduces the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council of Japan (AFFRC) model, an integrated model that predicts future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account the effect of global warming on both the water cycle and the rice economy. The model focuses especially on the water balance of paddy fields for different farmland water use systems. We defined six categories of irrigated paddies and three categories of rain-fed paddies on the basis of their systems of water usage. We included a process-based model to predict future rice production, accounting for daily changes in available water resources such as precipitation. Many models of crop production treat rice in the same way as other crops; the particular characteristics of rice farming are considered in more detail in our model. Our results show that it is possible to estimate future rice production in the Mekong River basin by taking into account changes in available water, and to model the resultant effects on the grain market.

Assessment of changes in water cycles on food production and alternative policy scenarios

This special issue deals with water and food as it applies to water resources and rice production in the Mekong River Basin. The range of papers reflects not only the broad interest but also the complexity of the topic. These reports are mainly based on the research carried out by the project, “Assessment of the Impact of Global-Scale Change in Water Cycles on Food Production and Alternative Policy Scenarios”. Hence the special issue gives a brief overview of the structure, goals, outcomes, and future direction of the above project. What we do in this paper are: (1) giving an overview of the project’s structure and goals, (2) stating the five common outcomes and several more specific results, and (3) looking forward to the future direction of the project. The aim of our research is to draw up scenarios for optimum water-resource distribution and to develop social guidelines, measures, and policies to help solving food and environmental problems by developing a world water–food model that emphasizes rice production in Monsoon Asia. We have integrated all of the data gathered and the research results into a food supply and demand model combined with a water-cycle analysis. We included operational factors, such as water-cycle change, water demand, water supply, and water distribution in the model. Emphasis is placed on the use of efficient resource-management technologies for proper use of water resources in agricultural and other sectors. The water–food model has been developed as a tool for evaluating technical decisions derived under various policy scenarios.