Hmwe H Kyu

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND Young peoples health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young peoples health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young peoples health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Objective To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events. Design Systematic review and Bayesian dose-response meta-analysis. Data sources PubMed and Embase from 1980 to 27 February 2016, and references from relevant systematic reviews. Data from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa from 2007 to 2010 and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1999 to 2011 were used to map domain specific physical activity (reported in included studies) to total activity. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies examining the associations between physical activity (any domain) and at least one of the five diseases studied. Results 174 articles were identified: 35 for breast cancer, 19 for colon cancer, 55 for diabetes, 43 for ischemic heart disease, and 26 for ischemic stroke (some articles included multiple outcomes). Although higher levels of total physical activity were significantly associated with lower risk for all outcomes, major gains occurred at lower levels of activity (up to 3000-4000 metabolic equivalent (MET) minutes/week). For example, individuals with a total activity level of 600 MET minutes/week (the minimum recommended level) had a 2% lower risk of diabetes compared with those reporting no physical activity. An increase from 600 to 3600 MET minutes/week reduced the risk by an additional 19%. The same amount of increase yielded much smaller returns at higher levels of activity: an increase of total activity from 9000 to 12 000 MET minutes/week reduced the risk of diabetes by only 0.6%. Compared with insufficiently active individuals (total activity <600 MET minutes/week), the risk reduction for those in the highly active category (≥8000 MET minutes/week) was 14% (relative risk 0.863, 95% uncertainty interval 0.829 to 0.900) for breast cancer; 21% (0.789, 0.735 to 0.850) for colon cancer; 28% (0.722, 0.678 to 0.768) for diabetes; 25% (0.754, 0.704 to 0.809) for ischemic heart disease; and 26% (0.736, 0.659 to 0.811) for ischemic stroke. Conclusions People who achieve total physical activity levels several times higher than the current recommended minimum level have a significant reduction in the risk of the five diseases studied. More studies with detailed quantification of total physical activity will help to find more precise relative risk estimates for different levels of activity.

Maternal smoking, biofuel smoke exposure and child height-for-age in seven developing countries

BACKGROUND Children are at high risk of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and biofuel smoke at home in developing countries. This study examines whether exposure to cigarette and biofuel smoke is associated with height-for-age of children (0-59 months) in seven developing countries. METHODS The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jordan, Moldova, Namibia and Nepal between 2005 and 2007. The respondents were women (15-49 years) and their children in seven countries (n = 28 439), and men (15-59 years) from four countries. The outcome is a physical measurement of child height-for-age in standard deviation units. RESULTS Multilevel regression analysis showed that the country of residence modified the association between maternal smoking and child height-for-age. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated negatively with child height-for-age in Cambodia, Namibia and Nepal, whereas it was not in other countries. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that biofuel smoke exposure was associated with a decrease in child height-for-age [b = -0.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.19 to -0.07, P < 0.001]. No interaction was found between country of residence and biofuel smoke exposure. Multinomial logistic regression results showed that biofuel smoke exposure was associated with both stunting [odds ratio (OR) = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08-1.44, P = 0.002) and severe stunting (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.59, P = 0.04), after controlling for covariates. CONCLUSION The findings suggest that exposure to maternal smoking and biofuel smoke may contribute to growth deficiencies in young children. Programmes are needed to ensure smoke-free home environments for children.

Artemisinin derivatives versus quinine for cerebral malaria in African children: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE To summarize the existing evidence on the efficacy of artemether and arteether, two artemisinin derivatives, versus quinine for treating cerebral malaria in children. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the http://clinicaltrials.gov web site. We also checked the reference lists of existing systematic reviews and of all trials identified by the above methods. We searched exclusively for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing artemether/arteether with quinine for treating cerebral malaria in children. Two independent reviewers assessed study eligibility and trial quality and extracted the data. FINDINGS Nine RCTs were included in the analysis, and all were from Africa. Five had adequate allocation concealment. Seven trials compared artemether with quinine (1220 children), and two compared arteether with quinine (194 children). No statistically significant difference was found between artemisinin derivatives and quinine in preventing mortality (relative risk, RR: 0.91; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.73-1.14; I(2): 0%). The quality of the evidence, as assessed by the Grade evidence profile, was moderate. The only serious adverse event was seen in a patient in the quinine group who developed fatal black water fever. CONCLUSION Artemisinin derivatives are not inferior to quinine in preventing death in children with cerebral malaria.

Socioeconomic and Geographic Patterning of Under- and Overnutrition among Women in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the prevalence of overweight among adults is increasing while underweight continues to be common. However, little is known about the pattern of underweight and overweight within Bangladesh and at the neighborhood level. The objective of this study was to assess the socioeconomic and geographic patterning of underweight and overweight in the population and determine if the burdens of these nutritional disorders coexist within neighborhoods in Bangladesh. A nationally representative sample of 10,589 ever-married women aged 15-49 y from 361 neighborhoods in Bangladesh was drawn from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. BMI (in kg/m(2)) was used to model nutritional status in a multinomial regression model with women classified as underweight (<18.5 kg/m(2)), overweight (≥25 kg/m(2)), or normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)). Indicators of socioeconomic status and geography included household wealth, neighborhood wealth, and place of residence. Household wealth was related negatively to underweight (OR = 0.35 [95% credible interval (int) = 0.28-0.43] for the richest one-fifth vs. the poorest one-fifth) and positively to overweight [OR = 4.36 (95% int = 2.94-6.57) for the richest one-fifth vs. the poorest one-fifth] in a graded fashion. Neighborhood wealth was positively associated with overweight [OR = 1.75 (95% int = 1.25-2.44) for the top one-third vs. the lowest one-third] and negatively associated with underweight [OR = 0.81 (95% int = 0.69-0.96) for the top one-third vs. the lowest one-third]. Residence in rural neighborhoods was significantly associated with decreased levels of overweight [OR = 0.71 (95% int = 0.58-0.91)]. We observed an inverse relationship between the random effects associated with underweight and overweight at the neighborhood level (r = -0.66; P = 0.008). In conclusion, our results suggest burdens of underweight and overweight in Bangladesh are strongly related to individual socioeconomic position but geographically distinct. Neighborhoods where women were at a higher risk of being underweight were more likely to be those where women were at a lower risk of being overweight.

Biofuel Smoke and Child Anemia in 29 Developing Countries: A Multilevel Analysis

PURPOSE In this study we examined the effect of biofuel smoke exposure at the national and child levels on child anemia. METHODS Data are from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2007. The respondents were women (15-49 years) and their children (0-59 months) (n = 117,454) in 29 developing countries. RESULTS In multinomial logistic regression models, both moderate and high exposure to biofuel smoke at the country level are associated with moderate/severe anemia (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.28-4.36 vs OR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.37-5.72) after adjusting for covariates. Exposure to biofuel smoke at home is associated with mild anemia (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.13), and there are interactions between biofuel smoke exposure and child age in months on mild anemia (OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.002-1.006) and moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.004-1.008). There are also interactions between biofuel smoke exposure at home and diarrhea on mild anemia (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34) and on moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22); and fever on moderate/severe anemia (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.22-1.45). CONCLUSIONS Given the increasing number of people relying on biofuels in developing countries, policies and programs are necessary to protect children from being exposed to this harmful smoke at home.

Evaluation of the association between long-lasting insecticidal nets mass distribution campaigns and child malaria in Nigeria.

BackgroundNigeria carries the greatest malaria burden among countries in the world. As part of the National Malaria Control Strategic Plan, free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed in 14 states of Nigeria through mass campaigns led by different organizations (the World Bank, UNICEF, or the Global Fund) between May 2009 and August 2010. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between LLIN distribution campaigns and child malaria in Nigeria.MethodsData were from the Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey which was carried out from October to December 2010 on a nationally representative sample of households. Participants were women aged 15–49 years and their children aged less than five years (N = 4082). The main outcome measure was the presence or absence of malaria parasites in blood samples of children (6–59 months).ResultsCompared with children living in communities with no campaigns, those in the campaign areas were less likely to test positive for malaria after adjusting for geographic locations, community- and individual-level characteristics including child-level use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). The protective effects were statistically significant for the World Bank Booster Project areas (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.04-0.73) but did not reach statistical significance for other campaign areas. Results also showed that community-level wealth (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.34-0.76), community-level maternal knowledge regarding malaria prevention (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.50-0.97), and child-level use of ITNs (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63-0.99) were negatively associated with child malaria.ConclusionsThe observed protective effects on child malaria of these campaigns (statistically significant in the World Bank Booster Project areas and non-significant in the other areas) need to be corroborated by future effectiveness studies. Results also show that improving community-level maternal knowledge through appropriate channels might be helpful in preventing child malaria in Nigeria.

Mortality from tetanus between 1990 and 2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015

BackgroundAlthough preventable, tetanus still claims tens of thousands of deaths each year. The patterns and distribution of mortality from tetanus have not been well characterized. We identified the global, regional, and national levels and trends of mortality from neonatal and non-neonatal tetanus based on the results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.MethodsData from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies and mortality surveillance data covering 12,534 site-years from 1980 to 2014 were used. Mortality from tetanus was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble modeling strategy.ResultsThere were 56,743 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 48,199 to 80,042) deaths due to tetanus in 2015; 19,937 (UI: 17,021 to 23,467) deaths occurred in neonates; and 36,806 (UI: 29,452 to 61,481) deaths occurred in older children and adults. Of the 19,937 neonatal tetanus deaths, 45% of deaths occurred in South Asia, and 44% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the 36,806 deaths after the neonatal period, 47% of deaths occurred in South Asia, 36% in sub-Saharan Africa, and 12% in Southeast Asia. Between 1990 and 2015, the global mortality rate due to neonatal tetanus dropped by 90% and that due to non-neonatal tetanus dropped by 81%. However, tetanus mortality rates were still high in a number of countries in 2015. The highest rates of neonatal tetanus mortality (more than 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya. The highest rates of mortality from tetanus after the neonatal period (more than 5 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, and Kenya.ConclusionsThough there have been tremendous strides globally in reducing the burden of tetanus, tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths from tetanus could be prevented each year by an already available inexpensive and effective vaccine. Availability of more high quality data could help narrow the uncertainty of tetanus mortality estimates.

Prioritising Infectious Disease Mapping.

Background Increasing volumes of data and computational capacity afford unprecedented opportunities to scale up infectious disease (ID) mapping for public health uses. Whilst a large number of IDs show global spatial variation, comprehensive knowledge of these geographic patterns is poor. Here we use an objective method to prioritise mapping efforts to begin to address the large deficit in global disease maps currently available. Methodology/Principal Findings Automation of ID mapping requires bespoke methodological adjustments tailored to the epidemiological characteristics of different types of diseases. Diseases were therefore grouped into 33 clusters based upon taxonomic divisions and shared epidemiological characteristics. Disability-adjusted life years, derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study, were used as a globally consistent metric of disease burden. A review of global health stakeholders, existing literature and national health priorities was undertaken to assess relative interest in the diseases. The clusters were ranked by combining both metrics, which identified 44 diseases of main concern within 15 principle clusters. Whilst malaria, HIV and tuberculosis were the highest priority due to their considerable burden, the high priority clusters were dominated by neglected tropical diseases and vector-borne parasites. Conclusions/Significance A quantitative, easily-updated and flexible framework for prioritising diseases is presented here. The study identifies a possible future strategy for those diseases where significant knowledge gaps remain, as well as recognising those where global mapping programs have already made significant progress. For many conditions, potential shared epidemiological information has yet to be exploited.

Association of urban slum residency with infant mortality and child stunting in low and middle income countries.

This study aimed to (i) examine the contextual influences of urban slum residency on infant mortality and child stunting over and above individual and household characteristics and (ii) identify factors that might modify any adverse effects. We obtained data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 45 countries between 2000 and 2009. The respondents were women (15–49 years) and their children (0–59 months). Results showed that living in a slum neighborhood was associated with infant mortality (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.15–1.57) irrespective of individual and household characteristics and this risk was attenuated among children born to women who had received antenatal care from a health professional (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63–0.99). Results also indicated that increasing child age exacerbated the risk for stunting associated with slum residency (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.16–1.23). The findings suggest that improving material circumstances in urban slums at the neighborhood level as well as increasing antenatal care coverage among women living in these neighborhoods could help reduce infant mortality and stunted child growth. The cumulative impact of long-term exposure to slum neighborhoods on child stunting should be corroborated by future studies.