Holger Johnsson

Climate Change Impact on Water Quality: Model Results from Southern Sweden

Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Rönneå catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjön. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).

Ensemble modelling of nutrient loads and nutrient load partitioning in 17 European catchments

An ensemble of nutrient models was applied in 17 European catchments to analyse the variation that appears after simulation of net nutrient loads and partitioning of nutrient loads at catchment scale. Eight models for N and five models for P were applied in three core catchments covering European-wide gradients in climate, topography, soil types and land use (Vansjø-Hobøl (Norway), Ouse (Yorkshire, UK) and Enza (Italy)). Moreover, each of the models was applied in 3-14 other EUROHARP catchments in order to inter-compare the outcome of the nutrient load partitioning at a wider European scale. The results of the nutrient load partitioning show a variation in the computed average annual nitrogen and phosphorus loss from agricultural land within the 17 catchments between 19.1-34.6 kg N ha(-1) and 0.12-1.67 kg P ha(-1). All the applied nutrient models show that the catchment specific variation (range and standard deviation) in the model results is lowest when simulating the net nutrient load and becomes increasingly higher for simulation of the gross nutrient loss from agricultural land and highest for the simulations of the gross nutrient loss from other diffuse sources in the core catchments. The average coefficient of variation for the model simulations of gross P loss from agricultural land is nearly twice as high (67%) as for the model simulations of gross N loss from agricultural land (40%). The variation involved in model simulations of net nutrient load and gross nutrient losses in European catchments was due to regional factors and the presence or absence of large lakes within the catchment.

SOILNDB: a decision support tool for assessing nitrogen leaching losses from arable land

Abstract To allocate resources effectively to reduce nitrate leaching and the resulting adverse effects on the environment, it is of great importance to quantify the contribution from different agricultural management practices and different agro–environmental conditions. In this paper we present a decision support tool, SOILNDB , that can be used to quantify nitrogen leaching losses from large areas of arable land where the availability of detailed data is limited. SOILNDB is also a useful tool for studying the effects of changes in agricultural management and land use on leaching, and for evaluating alternative management practices to minimise nitrogen leaching. The basis for SOILNDB is two widely used ‘research models’, SOIL and SOILN , which describe water and heat fluxes, and nitrogen transformation and transport processes in the soil. A parameter database and parameter estimation algorithms are used to convert the input data in SOILNDB to parameter values for the SOIL – SOILN models. Model outputs can be presented either in a summarised form with yearly averages, or in more detail as a time series with daily resolution. An illustrative example simulation shows how the model can be used to compare nitrate leaching under alternative management practices.

Water balance and soil moisture dynamics of field plots with barley and grass ley

Abstract A physically based soilwater and heat model was used to estimate the water balance of an arable field in central Sweden for each of three different crop covers (barley with and without N fertilization and grass ley). Annual water balances were calculated for each year from 1981 to 1985. On-site measurements of soil physical properties, meteorological variables and plant development were used as input to the model. Simulated soil forst, snow cover, soilwater contents, soilwater tensions and relative differences in simulated drainage between treatments were in agreement with the corresponding measured values. In the simulation, surface runoff (70 mm year −1 in all treatments) mainly occurred during snowmelt periods and accounted for much of the variation in the total runoff estimate. Annual mean precipitation amounted to 610 mm year −1 , whereas average evapotranspiration was calculated to be 320, 360 and 435 mm year −1 in barley without N fertilization, barley with N fertilization and grass ley, respectively. Soil evaporation accounted for 60, 43 and 23% whereas evaporation of intercepted water accounted for 5, 12 and 19% of the total evapotranspiration, respectively. Drainage estimates amounted to 205, 170 and 110 mm year −1 .

Description of nine nutrient loss models: capabilities and suitability based on their characteristics

In EUROHARP, an EC Framework V project, which started in 2002 with 21 partners in 17 countries across Europe, a detailed intercomparison of contemporary catchment-scale modelling approaches was undertaken to characterise the relative importance of point and diffuse pollution of nutrients in surface freshwater systems. The study focused on the scientific evaluation of different modelling approaches, which were validated on three core catchments (the Ouse, UK; the Vansjo-Hobøl, Norway; and the Enza, Italy), and the application of each tool to three additional, randomly chosen catchments across Europe. The tools involved differ profoundly in their complexity, level of process representation and data requirements. The tools include simple loading models, statistical, conceptual and empirical model approaches, and physics-based (mechanistic) models. The results of a scientific intercomparison of the characteristics of these different model approaches are described. This includes an analysis of potential strengths and weaknesses of the nutrient models.

Simulation of field scale denitrification losses from soils under grass ley and barley

Denitrification losses from soils under barley and grass ley crops were simulated. The model, which includes the major processes determining inputs, transformations and outputs of nitrogen in arable soils, represents a scale compatible with information generally available in agricultural field research. The denitrification part of the model includes a field potential denitrification rate and functions for the effect of soil aeration status, soil temperature and soil nitrate content. Easily metabolizable organic matter is assumed not to limit denitrification. Simulated values were compared with denitrification measurements made during two growing seasons in the barley and grass ley treatments of a field experiment in central Sweden.Calibration revealed that the optimal parameter values describing the effect of soil aeration on denitrification rates were similar for both treatments. The response function derived agreed well with two data sets found in the literature. The potential denitrification rate constant, derived in the simulations, was higher for grass ley than for barley, which was consistent with the differences in overall rates of carbon and nitrogen turnover found between treatments.The simulated mean denitrification rates for the two seasons were within 20% of the mean of the measured values. However, simulated denitrification showed less temporal variability and a less skewed frequency distribution than measured denitrification. Some of the measured denitrification events not explained by the model could have been due to the stimulating effects of soil drying/wetting and freezing/thawing on microbial activity.

Applicability of models to predict phosphorus losses in drained fields: a review.

Most phosphorus (P) modeling studies of water quality have focused on surface runoff loses. However, a growing number of experimental studies have shown that P losses can occur in drainage water from artificially drained fields. In this review, we assess the applicability of nine models to predict this type of P loss. A model of P movement in artificially drained systems will likely need to account for the partitioning of water and P into runoff, macropore flow, and matrix flow. Within the soil profile, sorption and desorption of dissolved P and filtering of particulate P will be important. Eight models are reviewed (ADAPT, APEX, DRAINMOD, HSPF, HYDRUS, ICECREAMDB, PLEASE, and SWAT) along with P Indexes. Few of the models are designed to address P loss in drainage waters. Although the SWAT model has been used extensively for modeling P loss in runoff and includes tile drain flow, P losses are not simulated in tile drain flow. ADAPT, HSPF, and most P Indexes do not simulate flow to tiles or drains. DRAINMOD simulates drains but does not simulate P. The ICECREAMDB model from Sweden is an exception in that it is designed specifically for P losses in drainage water. This model seems to be a promising, parsimonious approach in simulating critical processes, but it needs to be tested. Field experiments using a nested, paired research design are needed to improve P models for artificially drained fields. Regardless of the model used, it is imperative that uncertainty in model predictions be assessed.

Nitrogen leaching from agricultural land in Sweden. Model calculated effects of measures to reduce leaching loads.

Abstract The aim of the calculations in this paper was i) to estimate the effect of measures to reduce nitrogen leaching from arable land and ii) to estimate what reduction in the gross load from southern Sweden could be expected. The measures taken were i) cultivation of a catch crop in spring cereals; ii) smaller applications of fertilizer-N to crops in cultivation systems without manure; iii) spring application of manure and a smaller amount of complementary fertilizer-N; and iv) a catch crop in combination with spring application of manure and a reduced rate of fertilizer-N. The models used were the mechanistic SOIL/SOILN models describing water, heat, and nitrogen flows in the soil profile. The largest reduction in leaching was obtained with the combination of catch crop, spring application of manure and reduced rate of fertilizer-N. Total gross load decreased with 16% in this scenario. The catch crop scenario reduced gross load by a mere 5% because it was only introduced in 30% of the acreage of spring cereals. The scenario with a 10% reduction in fertilizer-N resulted in a decrease in load of about 6000 tonnes, i.e. 11%, as well as a yield decrease of about 10%.

Estimating Reduction of Nitrogen Leaching from Arable Land and the Related Costs

Abstract The EU Water Framework Directive will require river-basin management plans in order to achieve good ecological status and find the most cost-efficient nitrogen (N) leaching abatement measures. Detailed scenario calculations based on modeling methods will be valuable in this regard. This paper describes the approach and an application with a coefficient method based on the simulation model SOILNDB for quantification of N leaching from arable land and for prediction of the effect of abatement scenarios for the Rönneå catchment (1900 km2) in southern Sweden. Cost calculations for the different measures were also performed. The results indicate that the individual measures—cover crop and spring plowing, late termination of ley and fallow, and spring application of manure—would only reduce N leaching by between 5% and 8%. If all measures were combined and winter crops replaced by their corresponding spring variants, a 21% reduction in N leaching would be possible. However, this would require total fulfillment of the suggested measures.

Simulated nitrogen dynamics and nitrate leaching in a perennial grass ley

A soil nitrogen model was used for a 4-year simulation of nitrogen dynamics and nitrate leaching, both during grass ley growth and after ploughing a grass ley. Model results were compared with field measurements of soil mineral-N status and leaching. A soil water and heat model provided daily values for abiotic conditions, which were used as driving variables in the nitrogen simulation.Simulated values for mineral-N levels in the soil agreed well with field data for the first 3 years of the simulation. During the final year the model predicted considerably higher levels of soil mineral-N content compared with measurements. To reach the mineral-N level measured at the time of ploughing the ley, the simulated N-uptake by plants had to be increased by 8 g N m−2.Simulations of nitrate leaching suggested that estimates of leaching based on measurements in tile-drained plots can be considerably underestimated. Accurate quantification of leaching in tile-drained plots often requires additional information on water-flow paths.A substantial increase in simulated and measured values for the mineral-N content of the soil occurred after ploughing the ley. In the simulation, most of the increase was due to a high crop residue input and the absence of a growing crop after ploughing. Litter accumulations in the soil during the 4-year period contributed little to the increase in soil mineral-N.