Hong Xie

Cone model for halo CMEs: Application to space weather forecasting

[1]xa0In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. [2002]. We have improved this model by (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

Anomalous expansion of coronal mass ejections during solar cycle 24 and its space weather implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magneticu2009+u2009plasma) is reduced by ~40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

Major solar eruptions and high-energy particle events during solar cycle 24

We report on a study of all major solar eruptions that occurred on the frontside of the Sun during the rise to peak phase of cycle 24 (first 62 months) in order to understand the key factors affecting the occurrence of large solar energetic particle events (SEPs) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. The eruptions involve major flares with soft X-ray peak flux ≥ 5.0 x10−5 Wm−2 (i.e., flare size ≥ M5.0) and accompanying coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The selection criterion was based on the fact that the only front-side GLE in cycle 24 (GLE 71) had a flare size of M5.1. Only approximately 37% of the major eruptions from the western hemisphere resulted in large SEP events. Almost the same number of large SEP events was produced in weaker eruptions (flare size < M5.0), suggesting that the soft X-ray flare is not a good indicator of SEP or GLE events. On the other hand, the CME speed is a good indicator of SEP and GLE events because it is consistently high supporting the shock acceleration mechanism. We found the CME speed, magnetic connectivity to Earth (in longitude and latitude), and ambient conditions as the main factors that contribute to the lack of high-energy particle events during cycle 24. Several eruptions poorly connected to Earth (eastern-hemisphere or behind-the-west-limb events) resulted in very large SEP events detected by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Some very fast CMEs, likely to have accelerated particles to GeV energies, did not result in a GLE event because of poor latitudinal connectivity. The stringent latitudinal requirement suggests that the highest-energy particles are likely accelerated in the nose part of shocks, while the lower energy particles are accelerated at all parts. There were also well-connected fast CMEs, which did not seem to have accelerated high-energy particles due to possible unfavorable ambient conditions (high Alfven speed, overall reduction in acceleration efficiency in cycle 24).

Multiple ions resonant heating and acceleration by Alfvén/cyclotron fluctuations in the corona and the solar wind

[1]xa0We study the interaction between protons, multiple minor ions (O5+, He++), and a given Alfven/cyclotron fluctuation spectra in the corona and the solar wind. One-dimensional hybrid simulations are performed in initially homogeneous, collisionless, magnetized plasma with waves propagating parallel to the background magnetic field. The self-consistent hybrid simulations and linear Vlasov theory are used to study the effect of the driving spectrum, ion drift velocity, and microinstabilities on the coronal plasma and solar wind heating. The simulation results provide a clear picture of wave-particle interaction and successfully explain (1) how the driving spectrum frequency range and the power law index affect the resonant heating, (2) how ion double-peak distribution is formed and how differential flows affect the resonant interaction via the change of the resonant wave dispersion relation, and (3) how local microinstabilities affect minor ion heating and constraint the values of plasma parameters observed in the solar wind.

Are halo coronal mass ejections special events

[1]xa0We revisited the properties of wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs) called halo CMEs. Using the large LASCO/SOHO CMEs data set, from 1996 to 2004, we examined the statistical properties of (partial and full) halo CMEs and compare with the same properties of “normal” width (lower than 120°) CMEs. We found that halo CMEs have different properties than “normal” CMEs, which cannot be explained merely by the current geometric interpretation that they are seen as halos because they are traveling in the Sun Earth direction. We found that the CME width distribution is formed by, at least, three different populations: Two gaussians: a narrow and a medium distribution centered at ∼17° and ∼38°, respectively; the narrow population most likely corresponds to the “true” observed widths, whereas the medium width population is the product of projection effects. The third distribution corresponds to wider CMEs (80° < W < 210°) which behaves as a power law. Partial and full halo CMEs wider than these do not follow any particular distribution. This lack of regularity may be due to the small number of such events. In particular, we found (and test by a statistical approach) that the number of observed full halo CMEs is lower than expected. The CME speed follows a log-normal distribution, except for the very low speed CME population, which follows a gaussian distribution centered at ∼100 km/s and is probably due to projection effects. When the CMEs are divided by width into nonhalo, partial halo, and full halo, we found that the peaks of the distributions are shifted toward higher speeds, ∼300, ∼400 and ∼600 km/s for nonhalo, partial halo, and full halo CMEs, respectively. This confirms that halo CMEs tend to be high speed CMEs. The acceleration of full halo CMEs tends to be more negative compared with nonhalo and partial halo CMEs. We introduce a new observational CME parameter: The final observed distance (FOD), i.e., the highest point within the coronograph field of view where a CME can be distinguished from the background. In other words, the highest CME altitude measured. The FOD for nonhalo CMEs decreases exponentially from ∼5 to ∼30 R⊙ in the LASCO field of view. On the other hand, the FOD of halo CMEs increase with distance. This means that it is more likely to see halo CMEs at large distances (from the Sun) than nonhalo CMEs. These halo CME properties may be explained if the white light wide enhancements (or halo) seen by coronographs correspond to a combination of an expanding (shock) wave which disturbs and/or compresses the ambient material and the CME material itself.

High-energy solar particle events in cycle 24

The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (~2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

THE 2012 JULY 23 BACKSIDE ERUPTION: AN EXTREME ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT?

The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun to Earth shock transit time (18.5 hours). The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a >10 MeV proton flux peaking at ~5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle (ESP) event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to GeV energies). The time of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 10-100 MeV were very hard, similar to those of ground level enhancement (GLE) events. We found a hierarchical relationship between the CME initial speeds and the fluence spectral indices: CMEs with low initial speeds had SEP events with the softest spectra, while those with highest initial speeds had SEP events with the hardest spectra. CMEs attaining intermediate speeds result in moderately hard spectra. The July 23 event was in the group of hard-spectrum events. During the July 23 event, the shock speed (>2000 km s^-1), the initial acceleration (~1.70 km s^-2), and the shock formation height (~1.5 solar radii) were all typical of GLE events. The associated type II burst had emission components from metric to kilometric wavelengths suggesting a strong shock. These observation confirm that the 2012 July 23 event is likely to be an extreme event in terms of the energetic particles it accelerated.

Large Geomagnetic Storms Associated with Limb Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the observation of hundreds of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), thanks to the high dynamic range and extended field of view of the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. More than two thirds of halo CMEs originating on the front side of the Sun have been found to be geoeffective (Dst = 45deg) have a 20% shorter delay time on the average. It was suggested that the geomagnetic storms due to limb halos must be due to the sheath portion of the interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) so that the shorter delay time can be accounted for. We confirm this suggestion by examining the sheath and ejecta portions of ICMEs from Wind and ACE data that correspond to the limb halos. Detailed examination showed that three pairs of limb halos were interacting events. Geomagnetic storms following five limb halos were actually produced by other disk halos. The storms followed by four isolated limb halos and the ones associated with interacting limb halos, were all due to the sheath portions of ICMEs.

Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between 10∘

CME Flux Rope and Shock Identifications and Locations: Comparison of White Light Data, Graduated Cylindrical Shell Model, and MHD Simulations

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