Honorio Kume

Elasticidades de Armington para o Brasil: 1986-2002

We estimate the Armington elasticity for the 28 industrial sectors of the Brazilian input-output table, for the period 1986-2002. The methodology we use takes into account the stochastic properties of the data series, and the effects of the Brazilian foreign trade liberalization that occurred in 1990. We obtain statistically significant estimates of the elasticities for 24 sectors, and their estimated values are in the interval 0.2 to 3.6, with a weighted average of 0.9. For tree sectors the estimated elasticity is not significantly different from zero, and for one sector we find a significant elasticity, but it has the wrong sign.

Mercosul: o dilema entre união aduaneira e área de livre-comércio

A synthetic resin pipe intended for underground use is disclosed having both an improved strength and flexibility but reduced weight. An inner layer of the body of the pipe is formed of a synthetic resin, and a reinforcing layer is wound around the inner layer. The reinforcing layer is porous, and may be composed of a helically wound punched metal belt, mesh, or the like. An outer layer composed of a helically wound belt of synthetic resin having a high fusibility with the material of the inner layer is formed over the reinforcing layer. A reinforcing rib, forming the corrugations of the pipe, is wound around the outer layer. If desired, the reinforcing rib can be made integral with the belt of the outer layer.

Antidumping and Safeguard Mechanisms: The Brazilian Experience, 1988-2003

The authors focus on the evaluation of the antidumping regime from 1988 through 2003. During these years the Brazilian economy had to cope with several periods of macroeconomic instability and overvaluation of the domestic currency, particularly from 1990-92 and 1994-98. As a result, from 1992 through 1998, import volumes increased significantly. Although during these years, the demand for antidumping protection was growing, the number of investigations concluded with an affirmative determination was only 52 percent. The authors explain that the institutional framework in charge of administering the antidumping regime was subject to several reforms. Along this process, the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade saw its role strengthened. This ministry has a more protectionist bias than the Ministry of Finance that, during the initial years of the liberalization program, played a prominent role in decisions regarding antidumping investigations and measures. The authors conclude that in comparison with other countries that are important users of the antidumping mechanism, the Brazilian experience reveals two interesting features: 1) A relatively small rate of final positive determinations. 2) A tradition of applying antidumping duties in amounts that on average have been quite lower than the full dumping margins.

Tarifas De Importação E Evasão Fiscal No Brasil

Tax evasion in Brazilian imports has been an issue of concern for the customs authorities. This problem is addressed here using the theoretical approach of defining evasion as the difference between the value of exports of other countries to country-regionBrazil and value of imports reported by country-regionplaceBrazil. This makes it possible to quantify the effects of high import tariff rates on tax evasion due mainly to underreporting of value. The main empirical result of the paper is that a one-percentage-point increase in the tariff rate implies a 3.1% increase in evasion. Furthermore, we identify an also robust elasticity of evasion of 3.2%for differentiated products in contrast with a lower value of 2.2% for homogeneous products.

Elasticidade de Substituição das Importações no Brasil

As estimativas dos impactos sobre as importacoes devido a acordos comerciais dependem fundamentalmente das elasticidades de substituicao (ESs) entre as importacoes de diferentes fornecedores estrangeiros. Este trabalho estima as ESs das importacoes do Brasil, para 42 setores da matriz de insumo-produto de 2005, destacando as diferencas nos custos de transporte e na tarifa efetivamente paga entre os produtos, segundo os paises de procedencia. As elasticidades obtidas sao significantes a 1% para 39 setores, com media simples de 6,6 e amplitude de 4,7 e 13,7. A disponibilidade das ESs proprias para o Brasil permitira obter calculos mais precisos dos efeitos provocados por uma eventual participacao brasileira em novos acordos de liberalizacao comercial. Estimates of the impacts on imports due to trade agreements depend fundamentally on the elasticity of substitution between imports from different foreign suppliers. This paper estimate the elasticity of substitution for Brazilian imports, for 42 sectors of input-output table for 2005, highlighting the differences in transportation costs and the effectively paid tariffs between products, depending on the country of origin. The elasticities obtained are statistically significant for 1% to 39 sectors, with the arithmetic average of 6.6 and the amplitude of 4.7 and 13.7. The availability of the own elasticities for Brazil will provide more accurate calculations of the effects of a possible Brazilian participation in new trade liberalization agreements.

O sistema geral de preferências dos EUA: uma estimativa dos impactos sobre as exportações brasileiras

The U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), a concession offered unilaterally, is one of the most important preferential tariff programs to Brazil, but recently has been causing some apprehension due to threats to exclude this country from the list of beneficiaries. This study has the objective to estimate, based on the partial computational equilibrium model, the loss of the brazilian exports to the usa if Brazil is excluded from the GSP. The results obtained imply a decrease of US

Armington elasticities for Brazil

403 millions of exports, concentrated on a small number of sectors.

Preferential Trade Area: Are Rules of Origin a Substitute for Tariffs? (Acordos Preferenciais de Comercio: Os Regimes de Origem Substituem as Tarifas?)

In this article we estimate substitution elasticities for goods distinguished by place of production, specifying whether they are imported or produced domestically. These are known as the Armington (1969) elasticities and are widely used to assess the impact on the domestic economy of policy changes in countries’ tariff structures; and, in particular, to evaluate the costs and benefits of signing free trade agreements. The sample period for our study is 1986-2002, and the estimation is done separately for each of the 28 industrial sectors specified in the Brazilian input-output table. Special consideration is given to the fact that the data is affected by import restrictions for part of that period, and that foreign trade liberalization occurred in Brazil in 1990. The estimation procedure is automated and takes into consideration the stochastic dynamic properties of the quantity and price series, using the appropriate estimation approach in each case. The Armington elasticities we estimate have the correct sign, and are significant at the 5% level for 20 sectors, at 10% for two sectors, and at 20% for two others. In one sector the estimated value is significant, but has the incorrect sign (negative). For three sectors the estimated elasticity is not significantly different from zero; but these represent only 12% of the average value of total import value in the period 1997-2002. The point estimate of the elasticity of substitution, for the sectors where it is positive and statistically different from zero, varies from 0.16 to 3.6; and its weighted average value is 0.93.

Armington Elasticities for Brazil - 1986-2002: New Estimates

The institution of special trade relations, such as in preferential-trade areas (PTAs)requires some evidence of the origin of the products that may benefit from theconcessions. These conditions constitute the so-called rules of origin. These rules aredesigned to preclude the exports from outside countries to the PTAs through thecountry-member with the lowest tariffs. However, like other measures applied in theinternational trade, the rules of origin can be used as non-tariff barriers and conferhigher levels of protection to some sectors.The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the regimes of rules of originadopted by Nafta, Mercosur and that used by the European Union in its GeneralSystem of Preferences (GSP). In addition, it will be investigated to what extent the?hidden? protection provided by the use of rules of origin can be associated withdifferences in the tariff rates. The empirical results suggest that the incidence of morerigorous criteria to confer origin is easily detected in some sectors considered?sensitive? in the developed countries, such as agricultural products, food, textiles andclothing and footwear.

Mercosur: The Dilemma Between Custom Union and Free Trade Area

The structure introduced by Armington (1969) has been used to analyze trade policy in partial and general equilibrium models. The Armington elasticities, the degree of substitution between domestic and import goods are known to be important, but are seldom estimated empirically. Therefore, we estimate them for 28 industrial sectors, based on the Brazilian Input-Output table over the period 1986-2000. Initially we discuss the construction of the data set and the treatment that was given to the relative prices, for taking into account the trade liberalization initiated in 1990. According to the dynamic properties of the data we estimate four different econometric models. 25 out of the 28 sectors had positive and significant Armington estimates that were significant at the ten-percent level. They range between 0,16 e 4,95, which reflects the different degree of substitutability between domestic and import goods in the Brazilian industry.