Horacio Catalán

Curva ambiental de Kuznets: implicaciones para un crecimiento sustentable

The objective this article is examine the empirical relation between co 2 emissions per capita and gdp per capita during the period 1990–2010, using a panel of 144 countries. Under the hypothesis the Environmental Kutnez Curve (ekc). The main results show that the relationship between per capita co 2 emissions and per capita gdp describe an Nshaped curve, which means that any beneficial effects economic growth may have on per-capita pollution is transitory. Variables such as energy efficiency and protection of natural resources, play an important role in reducing the impact of economic growth on environmental degradation.

Función de reacción fiscal en México: un análisis de cambio estructural

Se examina la sostenibilidad de la politica fiscal de la economia mexicana, por medio de la esti-macion de una funcion de reaccion fiscal considerando la presencia de cambio estructural. Una respuesta positiva de la deuda publica en el balance fiscal indicaria estacionariedad en la relacion deuda-PIB, lo cual mostraria que la politica fiscal es sostenible. No obstante, esta relacion se ve afectada por la presencia de cambio estructural, que es considerada en los procesos de estimacion por medio del procedimiento de Bai y Perron (1998; 2003) y la estimacion por Filtro de Kalman. Los resultados muestran que la politica fiscal no es compatible con la restriccion presupuestal intertemporal y se ha colocado en una posicion de insostenibilidad fiscal. En las condiciones actuales de la politica fiscal, caracterizada por una debilidad de los ingresos fiscales, el gobierno federal no puede utilizar de manera permanente el endeudamiento publico como una forma de reactivar la economia.

Applied Econometrics Methods and Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from the Mexican Case

The main objective of this paper is to illustrate, using Mexican data, how the results yield by modern econometric methods are dependent upon each specific technique as well as upon the statistical properties of the series analyzed. The problems are even stronger and more evident in the case of economic series with structural changes and high variability as is the case of Mexico. Applied econometrics should be explicitly based upon a probability viewpoint, and different methods should be taken to produce only approximations to the actual data generation process. Thus, alternative techniques can only show distinctive features of the actual data that still need to be validated with the rest of empirical evidence. This indicates that applied econometricians have to look for maximum information by correctly applying different techniques without forgetting the relevance of economic reasoning. Using Mexican data, alternative econometric estimations are evaluated indicating that the formulation of a monetary policy only on the basis of some specific technique, without considering its potential pitfalls, should not be recommended.