Hsu-Ling Chang

China's housing bubble burst?

In this paper, we developed the recursive unit root tests to identify the beginning and end of potential speculative bubbles in the Chinese housing price cycles during 2006–2013 for the 70 major cities of China. The method is best suited for a practical implementation with a time series and delivers a consistent date‐stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations demonstrate that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains when multiple bubbles occur. Overall, the results indicate that the speculative housing price bubbles in China are not bursting, and they indicate that the stationarity of the housing price level varies across the different city sizes. Between the cities, approximately one‐fourth of the bubbles have burst up to December 2013, while the first‐tier city bubble may not burst due to the urbanization process.

Is Income Converging in China

This study adopts a flexible Fourier unit‐root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to revisit the tendency towards convergence in real per capita income among provinces after economic reform in China. When a data‐generating process is non‐linear, a Fourier series not only allows for the possibility of an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown forms but also allows for the use of a low‐frequency component to capture multiple changes. Contrary to what the linear statistics suggest, our results from a flexible unit‐root test indicate that Chinas eastern and western regions are converging to their own specific steady states.

Is urbanization improving real estate investment? A cross-regional study of China

This paper applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and real estate investment from 1990 to 2014 for 29 provinces in China. We argue that the patterns of interaction between urbanization and investment in real estate vary across regions. The results show that urbanization does Granger†cause investment in real estate, primarily in the central and northeastern regions of China, while urbanization does not Granger†cause investment in real estate in the eastern and western regions, except for four provinces. Most regions do not have a Granger†causality relationship from real estate investment to urbanization; the exceptions are Henan and Hei Longjiang provinces. Our results only support one theory on the relationship between urbanization and the real estate market for one†third of the provinces. Thus, urbanization can improve real estate investment by increasing the demand for housing as a result of population agglomeration, but urbanization does not depend on real estate investment in China.

Nonlinear Taylor rules in Central Eastern European countries

This study applies sequential panel selection method (SPSM), proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009), to investigate to test the validity of Taylor rules to assess the nonstationary properties of the convergence of the real exchange rates for 10 Central Eastern European countries. The SPSM can be used to decompose a panel of real exchange rate series into two groups: a group of stationary series and a group of nonstationary series. We identify the stationary processes in the panel and demonstrate that Taylor rules holds for 7 of the 10 countries studied. These results imply that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary policies in Central Eastern European economies are highly influenced by external factors originating from the United States. Additionally, our findings highlight that their real exchange rate convergence is a mean reversion toward equilibrium values of Taylor rules in a nonlinear manner.

Are real GDP levels nonstationary across Central and Eastern European countries

Abstract This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate and assess the non-stationary properties of whether real GDP follows a trend stationary or a difference stationary process for Central Eastern European (CEE) countries. SPSM can classify the whole panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series. We clearly identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes and provide robust evidence clearly indicating that per capita real GDP for CEE countries holds stationary for three countries. Our findings point out their per capita real GDP convergence is a mean reversion towards equilibrium values in a non-linear way. Our results have important policy implications for macroeconomic policy, modeling, testing and forecasting for these CEE countries under study.

Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with nonlinear threshold unit-root test

This study applies nonlinear threshold unit-root test to assess the nonstationary properties of the Real Interest Rate Parity (RIRP) for 10 East Asian countries relative to China. We find that nonlinear threshold unit-root test has higher power than linear method suggested by Caner and Hansen (2001) if the true Data-Generating Process (DGP) of real interest rate convergence is in fact a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of RIRP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that RIRP holds true for eight countries in this region. It implies that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies in the East Asian economies will be highly influenced by external factors originating from China. Also, our findings point out their real interest rate convergence relative to China is mean reversion towards RIRP equilibrium values in a nonlinear way.

Is exchange rate stability beneficial for stabilizing consumer prices in China

This study examines the relationship between real effective exchange rates (REERs) and the consumer price index (CPI) in China, utilizing a bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and a sub-sample rolling-window estimation. Considering structural changes, we assess the stability of the parameters and find that both the short-run and long-run relationships between the two estimated variables are unstable. This result suggests that full-sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. We instead employ a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and we find that the CPI is affected by the REER for several sub-samples due to the role of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) under the managed floating exchange rate regime in China. These findings provide further proof of the impact of stable exchange rates on the maintenance of relatively steady price levels especially during the economic crisis and economic reform in China. The policy implication of these findings is that maintaining exchange rate stability is beneficial for controlling inflation during the economic crisis and economic reform.

Uncovered interest parity and monetary integration in East Asian countries based on China

This study applies a nonlinear threshold unit-root test to investigate the nonstationary properties of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) with risk premium for eight East Asian countries relative to China. We find that the nonlinear threshold unit-root test has greater power than the linear method, if the true data generating process of risk premium convergence is a stationary nonlinear process. We examine the validity of UIP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that UIP holds true for five countries based on China. Our findings highlight that capital mobility, exchange rate market efficiency and monetary integration are nonlinear in these East Asian countries.

Does the Law of One Price hold? A cross-regional study of China

Abstract This study considers the price convergence in different regions of China, which is the largest developing country in the world and a country in which the regional difference is much larger between provinces. Whether there is price convergence between regions in one country is an important economic issue according to the Law of One Price (LOP) theory. Compared to previous studies, this article operates with the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) to explore the non-stationary properties of the LOP in China’s regions. We provide robust evidence to specify that the LOP holds true for two-thirds of the provinces in China, mainly in the Western and Central regions. This means that the Eastern region’s price fluctuation is non-stationary and that the consumer price index (CPI) levels of the Western, Central and Northeastern regions are relatively convergent in China. The conduction path of the CPI level is from the Eastern region to the other regions. It shows that prices can converge with each other by LOP and the values of the same goods in the Western and Central regions are equal and if there is a price difference, then it can be eliminated by interregional trade.

Does the Efficient Market Hypothesis Fit Military Enterprises in China

Abstract This paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) fits the Chinese military market using the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) and the Panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function. We obtain evidence for structural shifts and non-linearity in the stock prices of the military industry in the Chinese stock market. Because sharp shifts and structural breaks are taken into account, the unit root hypothesis for most listed companies is rejected. Our result suggests that the Chinese military market is inefficient because of such factors as defense reforms, friction in the stock market, and irrational investors. We provide investment implications to enable future stock price movements to be predicted based on past behavior and enable trading strategies to be developed to earn abnormal returns. Meanwhile, Chinese defense enterprises should continue to implement industrial reforms, change their bureaucratic culture, and develop a market-oriented workforce.