Huanjiong Wang

Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis.

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960-2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade(-1) ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade(-1) for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade(-1), while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade(-1) . For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s-2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s-2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R=-0.33, P<0.05).

Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change

Existing evidence of plant phenological change to temperature increase demonstrates that the phenological responsiveness is greater at warmer locations and in early-season plant species. Explanations of these findings are scarce and not settled. Some studies suggest considering phenology as one functional trait within a plants life history strategy. In this study, we adapt an existing phenological model to derive a generalized sensitivity in space (SpaceSens) model for calculating temperature sensitivity of spring plant phenophases across species and locations. The SpaceSens model have three parameters, including the temperature at the onset date of phenophases (Tp), base temperature threshold (Tb) and the length of period (L) used to calculate the mean temperature when performing regression analysis between phenology and temperature. A case study on first leaf date of 20 plant species from eastern China shows that the change of Tp and Tb among different species accounts for interspecific difference in temperature sensitivity. Moreover, lower Tp at lower latitude is the main reason why spring phenological responsiveness is greater there. These results suggest that spring phenophases of more responsive, early-season plants (especially in low latitude) will probably continue to diverge from the other late-season plants with temperatures warming in the future.

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

The decreasing spring frost risks during the flowering period for woody plants in temperate area of eastern China over past 50 years

The temperate monsoon area of China is an important agricultural region but late spring frosts have frequently caused significant damage to plants there. Based on phenological data derived from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON), corresponding meteorological data from 12 study sites and phenological modeling, changes in flowering times of multiple woody plants and the frequency of frost occurrence were analyzed. Through these analyses, frost risk during the flowering period at each site was estimated. Results of these estimates suggested that first flowering dates (FFD) in the study area advanced significantly from 1963 to 2009 at an average rate of −1.52 days/decade in Northeast China (P<0.01) and −2.22 days/decade (P<0.01) in North China. Over the same period, the number of frost days in spring decreased and the last frost days advanced across the study area. Considering both flowering phenology and occurrence of frost, the frost risk index, which measures the percentage of species exposed to frost during the flowering period in spring, exhibited a decreasing trend of −0.37% per decade (insignificant) in Northeast China and −1.80% per decade (P<0.01) in North China, implying that frost risk has reduced over the past half century. These conclusions provide important information to agriculture and forest managers in devising frost protection schemes in the region.

Spatiotemporal Variability in Start and End of Growing Season in China Related to Climate Variability

Satellite-derived vegetation phenophases are frequently used to study the response of ecosystems to climate change. However, limited studies have identified the common phenological variability across different climate and vegetation zones. Using NOAA/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset, we estimated start of growing season (SOS) and end of growing season (EOS) for Chinese vegetation during the period 1982–2012 based on the Midpoint method. Subsequently, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to extract the main patterns of phenophases and their annual variability. The impact of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation on phenophases was investigated using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The first EOF mode of phenophases exhibited widespread earlier or later SOS and EOS signals for almost the whole country. The attendant time coefficients revealed an earlier SOS between 1996 and 2008, but a later SOS in 1982–1995 and 2009–2012. Regarding EOS, it was clearly happening later in recent years, mainly after 1993. The preseason temperature contributed to such spatiotemporal phenological change significantly. The first pair of CCA patterns for phenology and preseason temperature was found to be similar and its time coefficients were highly correlated to each other (correlation coefficient >0.7). These results indicate that there is a substantial amount of common variance in SOS and EOS across different vegetation types that is related to large-scale modes of climate variability.

Comparison of Satellite and Ground-Based Phenology in China’s Temperate Monsoon Area

Continuous satellite datasets are widely used in tracking vegetation responses to climate variability. Start of season (SOS), for example, can be derived using a number of methods from the time series of satellite reflectance data; however, various methods often produce different SOS measures which limit the application of satellite data in phenological studies. Therefore, we employed five methods to estimate SOS from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)/normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset. Subsequently, we compared the SOS with the ground-based first leaf date (FLD) of 12 deciduous broadleaved plant species at 12 sites of the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON). The results show that the latitudinal patterns of five satellite-derived SOS measures are similar to each other but different from the pattern of ground phenology. For individual methods, the variability of SOS time series is significantly different from ground phenology except for HANTS, Polyfit, and Midpoint methods. The SOS calculated using the Midpoint method showed significant correlations with ground phenophases most frequently (in 47.1% of cases). Using the SOS derived from the Midpoint method, significantly earlier trends in SOS were detected in 50.7% of the natural vegetation area from 1982 to 2006.

No evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015

Understanding the changes in snow cover is essential for biological and hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas. However, the changes in snow cover phenology over the TP have not been well documented. Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data, we reported daily cloud-free snow cover product over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for 2000–2015. Snow cover start (SCS), melt (SCM) and duration (SCD) dates were calculated for each hydrological year, and their spatial and temporal variations were analyzed with elevation variations. Our results show no widespread decline in snow cover over the past fifteen years and the trends of snow cover phenology over the TP has high spatial heterogeneity. Later SCS, earlier SCM, and thus decreased SCD mainly occurred in the areas with elevation below 3500 m a.s.l., while regions in central and southwestern edges of the TP showed advanced SCS, delayed SCM and consequently longer SCD. The roles of temperature and precipitation on snow cover penology varied in different elevation zones, and the impact of both temperature and precipitation strengthened as elevation increases.

Phenological response of different vegetation types to temperature and precipitation variations in northern China during 1982–2012

ABSTRACT Plant phenology is influenced by various climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, insolation, and humidity, etc. Among these factors, temperature and precipitation are proved to be the most important. However, the relative importance of these two factors is different among various phenophases and regions and is seldom discussed along environmental gradients. Based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the NDVI3g dataset and using the mid-point method, we extracted the start date of the growing season (SOG) and the end date of the growing season (EOG) in northern China during 1982–2012. To determine which climate factor was more influential on plant phenology, partial correlation analysis was applied to analyse the spatial difference between the response of SOG and EOG to temperature and precipitation. Finally, we calculated the temperature and precipitation sensitivities of the SOG and EOG. The results showed that: (1) SOG displayed an advancing trend in most regions, while EOG was delayed for all the vegetation types during 1982–2012. (2) SOG was mainly triggered by preseason temperature. The increase in temperature caused an overall advance in SOG. However, the relationship between SOG and precipitation varied among different vegetation types. Regarding EOG, precipitation had greater impacts than temperature in relatively arid environments, such as deserts, steppes and meadow biomes. (3) The response of vegetation phenology (both SOG and EOG) to temperature became stronger with increasing preseason precipitation across space. The response of EOG to precipitation became weaker from arid regions to relatively humid regions. These results provide a better understanding of the spatial pattern of the phenological response along the precipitation gradient and a reference for assessing impacts of future climate change on vegetation phenology, especially in transitional and fragile zones.

Characteristics of Spring Phenological Changes in China over the Past 50 Years

In order to understand past plant phenological responses to climate change in China (1963–2009), we conducted trends analysis of spring phenophases based on observation data at 33 sites from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON). The phenological data on first leaf date (FLD) and first flowering date (FFD) for five broad-leaved woody plants from 1963 to 2009 were analyzed. Since most phenological time series are discontinuous because of observation interruptions at certain period, we first interpolated phenological time series by using the optimal model between the spring warming (SW) model and the UniChill model to form continuous time series. Subsequently, by using regression analysis, we found that the spring phenophases of woody plants in China advanced at a mean rate of 0.18 days/year over the past 50 years. Changes of spring phenophases exhibited strong regional difference. The linear trends in spring phenophases were −0.18, −0.28, −0.21, −0.04, and −0.14 days/year for the Northeast China Plain, the North China Plain, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and South China, respectively. The spatial differences in phenological trends can be attributed to regional climate change patterns in China.

Phenological records in Guanzhong Area in central China between 600 and 902 AD as proxy for winter half-year temperature reconstruction

Phenological data obtained from historical documents constitute highly important ecological evidence for the pre-instrumental period, and can be used in analyzing climatic change in history. In this study, 87 phenological records about seasonality of non-biological events (e.g., first frost date), agriculture and ornamental plants (e.g., first flowering date) over 77 years were extracted from historical documents from the Sui and Tang dynasties in China to reconstruct the winter half-year (from October to next April) temperatures in the Guanzhong Area (located in central China) from 600 to 902 AD. Transfer functions between temperature and phenophases with significant correlations were established by using modern observation data. Temperatures from the study period were reconstructed by applying the transfer functions to historical phenological data. The reconstruction indicates that the winter half-year temperatures during 600–902 AD were 0.23°C higher than the reference period (1961–1990). The temperature changed with two distinct stages. During the 600s–800s, temperatures were approximately 0.38°C higher than at present but then temperatures decreased in the subsequent period (800–902 AD). These results are similar to ones from previous studies on the mean temperature and the divisions between warm and cold periods during the study period, though differences were found in the degree of warmness/coldness. This reconstruction provides a valuable contribution to a better understanding of climatic variability during the Sui and Tang dynasties in China.