Hugo C. Turner

Should the Goal for the Treatment of Soil Transmitted Helminth (STH) Infections Be Changed from Morbidity Control in Children to Community-Wide Transmission Elimination?

Morbidity induced by infection with the major soil transmitted infections (STH—Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworms) results in an estimated 5.19 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) [1]. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) policy for control centres on three groups, preschool aged children (pre-SAC), school-aged children (SAC), and women of child bearing age, on the basis that heavy infection in these groups will have a detrimental impact on anaemia, child growth, and development. The current WHO guidelines focus on school-aged children, both for monitoring infection and as a target for treatment, although treatment of pre-SAC and women of childbearing age is also recommended where sustainable delivery mechanisms exist, especially in areas of intense transmission [2,3]. The guidelines recommend treating SAC annually where any STH prevalence falls between 20% and 50% and twice a year where it exceeds 50% [3]. The London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases in 2012 endorsed WHO goals to scale up mass drug administration (MDA) for STH, so that by 2020, 75% of the pre-SAC and SAC in need will be treated regularly [4]. Building on an existing roadmap, WHO announced an intention to meet the target [2,5,6]. Progress has been good in some areas, but less so in others. In 2012, global coverage of those in need was 37% for SAC and 29% for pre-SAC [5]. Data for the more recent years is as yet to be published by WHO [5], but a huge gain in coverage is not expected, despite increased drug donations from the pharmaceutical companies who manufacture the main anthelmintics. This is due in part to the logistical challenges in getting even donated drugs to these populations, who are often beyond “the end of the road.” At present, many countries with endemic STH infections are not availing themselves of the freely donated drugs to treat children. We are still a long way from the 2020 target of 75%. Even if this target is reached, will it be enough to eliminate transmission and the disease arising from heavy infections with STH? If not, how should the guidelines be changed to push towards morbidity control, and ideally, the eventual elimination of transmission?

Reaching the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases Goals for Onchocerciasis: An Economic Evaluation of Increasing the Frequency of Ivermectin Treatment in Africa

Although switching from annual to biannual ivermectin treatment yields small additional health benefits, in the context of elimination goals its benefit is pronounced, increasing the feasibility of and shortening the time frames for reaching proposed operational thresholds for stopping treatment.

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models

Summary Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in sub-Saharan Africa: 1990-2010

Aim To estimate the magnitude, temporal trends and subregional variation in the prevalence of blindness, and moderate/severe vision impairment (MSVI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A systematic review was conducted of published and unpublished population-based surveys as part of the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors and Injuries Study 2010. The prevalence of blindness and vision impairment by country and subregion was estimated. Results In sub-Saharan Africa, 52 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. The estimated age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 32% from 1.9% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.2%) in 1990 to 1.3% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.5%) in 2010 and MSVI by 25% from 5.3% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) to 4.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) over that time. However, there was a 16% increase in the absolute numbers with blindness and a 28% increase in those with MSVI. The major causes of blindness in 2010 were; cataract 35%, other/unidentified causes 33.1%, refractive error 13.2%, macular degeneration 6.3%, trachoma 5.2%, glaucoma 4.4% and diabetic retinopathy 2.8%. In 2010, age-standardised prevalence of MSVI in Africa was 3.8% (95% CI 3.1% to 4.7%) for men and 4.2% (95% CI 3.6% to 5.3%) for women with subregional variations from 4.1% (95% CI 3.3% to 5.4%) in West Africa to 2.0% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.3%) in southern Africa for men; and 4.7% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.0%) in West Africa to 2.3% (95% CI 1.7% to 3.8%) in southern Africa for women. Conclusions The age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI decreased substantially from 1990 to 2010, although there was a moderate increase in the absolute numbers with blindness or MSVI. Significant subregional and gender disparities exist.

Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

Background Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment. Methodology/Principal Findings We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drugs effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution. Conclusions/Significance There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.

Compliance with anthelmintic treatment in the neglected tropical diseases control programmes: a systematic review

Preventive chemotherapy (PCT) programmes are used to control five of the highest burden neglected tropical diseases (NTDs): soil-transmitted helminth infections (hookworm, ascariasis, and trichuriasis), lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma. Over the past decade, new resource commitments for the NTDs have enabled such programmes to intensify their control efforts, and for some diseases, to shift from goals of morbidity control to the interruption of transmission and elimination. To successfully eliminate the parasite reservoir, these programmes will undoubtedly require prolonged, high treatment coverage. However, it is important to consider that even when coverage levels reach an acceptable proportion of the target population, there may be a considerable gap between coverage (those who receive the drug) and compliance (those who actually consume the drug)—a topic of fundamental and perhaps underestimated importance. We conducted a systematic review of published literature that investigated compliance to PCT programmes for NTD control and elimination. Databases searched included PubMed/Medline, Web of Knowledge (including Web of Science), OVID, and Scopus. Data were collected on compliance rates, reasons for non-compliance, as well as the heterogeneity of compliance definitions and calculations across programmes and studies. A total of 112 studies were selected for inclusion. The findings of the review revealed substantial heterogeneity across compliance terms and definitions; an imbalance of available studies for particular disease areas and countries; and finally, a lack of longitudinal compliance studies to properly investigate the role of systematic non-compliance. The lack of consistency among reporting of compliance data can result in under- or over-estimating compliance in a population, and therefore has serious implications for setting and reaching elimination targets. Reframing of the guidelines on compliance definitions coupled with an urgent call for longitudinal research in systematic non-compliance should be essential elements in the programmatic shift from control to elimination.

Modelling the impact of ivermectin on River Blindness and its burden of morbidity and mortality in African Savannah: EpiOncho projections.

BackgroundThe African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has refocused its goals on the elimination of infection where possible, seemingly achievable by 15–17 years of annual mass distribution of ivermectin in some African foci. Previously, APOC had focused on the elimination of onchocerciasis as a public health problem. Timeframes have been set by the World Health Organization, the London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases and the World Bank to achieve these goals by 2020–2025.MethodsA novel mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocercal disease is presented which links documented associations between Onchocerca volvulus infection and the prevalence and incidence of morbidity and mortality to model outputs from our host age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission framework (EpiOncho). The model is calibrated for African savannah settings, and used to assess the impact of long-term annual mass administration of ivermectin on infection and ocular and skin disease and to explore how this depends on epidemiological and programmatic variables.ResultsCurrent onchocerciasis disease projections, which do not account for excess mortality of sighted individuals with heavy microfilarial loads, underestimate disease burden. Long-term annual ivermectin treatment is highly effective at reducing both the morbidity and mortality associated with onchocerciasis, and this result is not greatly influenced by treatment coverage and compliance. By contrast, impact on microfilarial prevalence and intensity is highly dependent on baseline endemicity, treatment coverage and systematic non-compliance.ConclusionsThe goals of eliminating morbidity and infection with ivermectin alone are distinctly influenced by epidemiological and programmatic factors. Whilst the former goal is most certainly achievable, reaching the latter will strongly depend on initial endemicity (the higher the endemicity, the greater the magnitude of inter-treatment transmission), advising caution when generalising the applicability of successful elimination outcomes to other areas. The proportion of systematic non-compliers will become far more influential in terms of overall success in achieving elimination goals.

Soil-Transmitted Helminths: Mathematical Models of Transmission, the Impact of Mass Drug Administration and Transmission Elimination Criteria

Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminthias (STHs) affect over a billion people worldwide, causing anaemia and having a large social and economic impact through poor educational outcomes. They are identified in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases as a target for renewed effort to ameliorate their global public health burden through mass drug administration (MDA) and water and hygiene improvement. In this chapter, we review the underlying biology and epidemiology of the three causative intestinal nematode species that are mostly considered under the STH umbrella term. We review efforts to model the transmission cycle of these helminths in populations and the effects of preventative chemotherapy on their control and elimination. Recent modelling shows that the different epidemiological characteristics of the parasitic nematode species that make up the STH group can lead to quite distinct responses to any given form of MDA. When connected with models of treatment cost-effectiveness, these models are potentially a powerful tool for informing public policy. A number of shortcomings are identified; lack of critical types of data and poor understanding of diagnostic sensitivities hamper efforts to test and hence improve models.

The potential impact of moxidectin on onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: an economic evaluation based on the Phase II clinical trial data.

BackgroundSpurred by success in several foci, onchocerciasis control policy in Africa has shifted from morbidity control to elimination of infection. Clinical trials have demonstrated that moxidectin is substantially more efficacious than ivermectin in effecting sustained reductions in skin microfilarial load and, therefore, may accelerate progress towards elimination. We compare the potential cost-effectiveness of annual moxidectin with annual and biannual ivermectin treatment.MethodsData from the first clinical study of moxidectin were used to parameterise the onchocerciasis transmission model EPIONCHO to investigate, for different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah settings, the number of years and in-country costs necessary to reach the operational thresholds for cessation of treatment, comparing annual and biannual ivermectin with annual moxidectin treatment.ResultsAnnual moxidectin and biannual ivermectin treatment would achieve similar reductions in programme duration relative to annual ivermectin treatment. Unlike biannual ivermectin treatment, annual moxidectin treatment would not incur a considerable increase in programmatic costs and, therefore, would generate sizeable in-country cost savings (assuming the drug is donated). Furthermore, the impact of moxidectin, unlike ivermectin, was not substantively influenced by the timing of treatment relative to seasonal patterns of transmission.ConclusionsMoxidectin is a promising new drug for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis. It has high programmatic value particularly when resource limitation prevents a biannual treatment strategy, or optimal timing of treatment relative to peak transmission season is not feasible.

The Cost of Annual versus Biannual Community-Directed Treatment of Onchocerciasis with Ivermectin: Ghana as a Case Study

Background It has been proposed that switching from annual to biannual (twice yearly) mass community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) might improve the chances of onchocerciasis elimination in some African foci. However, historically, relatively few communities have received biannual treatments in Africa, and there are no cost data associated with increasing ivermectin treatment frequency at a large scale. Collecting cost data is essential for conducting economic evaluations of control programmes. Some countries, such as Ghana, have adopted a biannual treatment strategy in selected districts. We undertook a study to estimate the costs associated with annual and biannual CDTI in Ghana. Methodology The study was conducted in the Brong-Ahafo and Northern regions of Ghana. Data collection was organized at the national, regional, district, sub-district and community levels, and involved interviewing key personnel and scrutinizing national records. Data were collected in four districts; one in which treatment is delivered annually, two in which it is delivered biannually, and one where treatment takes place biannually in some communities and annually in others. Both financial and economic costs were collected from the health care providers perspective. Principal Findings The estimated cost of treating annually was US Dollars (USD) 0.45 per person including the value of time donated by the community drug distributors (which was estimated at USD 0.05 per person per treatment round). The cost of CDTI was approximately 50–60% higher in those districts where treatment was biannual than in those where it was annual. Large-scale mass biannual treatment was reported as being well received and considered sustainable. Conclusions/Significance This study provides rigorous evidence of the different costs associated with annual and biannual CDTI in Ghana which can be used to inform an economic evaluation of the debate on the optimal treatment frequency required to control (or eliminate) onchocerciasis in Africa.