Hung-Gay Fung

A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings

Abstract In 1995 Moody’s Investors Services inaugurated a new rating service, bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs), that assesses the safety and soundness of banks in over 50 countries. Our study sets out to do some preliminary investigations of this new type of credit rating. We develop logistic regression models to help explain or predict BFSRs. Using bank-specific accounting and financial data we are able to correctly classify or predict BFSRs. These fundamental variables cover the dimensions of risk, loan provision ratios, and profitability. Of the three, loan provisions is the most important factor, followed by risk, and then profitability. Country risk ratings do not appear to be significant explanators of BFSRs. We also find that traditional debt ratings accurately classify BFSRs and this raises the question of whether BFSRs add incremental information. The paper also highlights future directions for our research. One such area is to examine how well BFSRs predict banking crises such as the credit problems currently affecting Asia and Latin America.

Ethical issues across cultures: managing the differing perspectives of China and the USA

US marketers know the US standard of ethics. However, that standard can lead to ethical conflict when Americans encounter the emerging market giant, China. As smaller US companies enter China, the potential for ethical conflict increases. Reducing that potential requires knowledge. Knowing the nature and history of the two cultures can lead to an understanding of the foundation of their ethical systems. Ethics and the expectations within cultures affect all business transactions. It is vital for Western marketers to understand the expectations of their counterparts around the world. Understanding the cultural bases for ethical behavior in both the USA and China can arm a marketer with knowledge needed to succeed in cross‐cultural business. Implementing that knowledge with a clear series of managerial guidelines can actualize the value of that understanding.

Are the U.S. Stock Market and Credit Default Swap Market Related?: Evidence from the CDX Indices

This article examines the market-wide relations between the U.S. stock market and the credit default swap (CDS) market for the period 2001–2007. Results indicate that the lead-lag relationship between the U.S. stock market and the CDS market depends on the credit quality of the underlying reference entity. Specifically, this article finds significant mutual feedback of information between the stock market and the high-yield CDS market in terms of pricing and volatility, while the stock market leads the investment-grade CDS index in the pricing process. The CDS market seems to play a more significant role in volatility spillover than the stock market. That is, volatilities of both the investment-grade and high-yield CDS indices seem to lead the stock market volatility, while the latter has a feedback effect to that of the high-yield CDS market only. Overall, the implication is that market participants should seek information in both markets when they are about to engage in trading and/or hedging

Information Flows across Markets: Evidence from China–Backed Stocks Dual–Listed in Hong Kong and New York

Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, we examine patterns of information flows for China-backed stocks that are cross-listed on exchanges in Hong Kong and New York. Results analyzing the dual-listed stocks indicate significant mutual feedback of information between domestic (Hong Kong) and offshore (New York) markets in terms of pricing and volatility. Stocks listed on the domestic market appear to play a more significant role of information transmission in the pricing process, whereas stocks listed on the offshore market play a bigger role in volatility spillover. Copyright 2002 by the Eastern Finance Association.

Asset pricing in segmented capital markets: Preliminary evidence from China-domiciled companies

Abstract A number of Chinese companies have issued shares to investors within China (A shares) and issued shares to foreign investors (B, H, and N shares). All these shares have equal rights although A shares can only be sold to, and traded among, PRC citizens and B, H, and N shares can only be issued to, and traded among, foreign investors. The paper examines the impact of the initial listing of B-share issues on the prices of already listed A shares. Our analyses test the joint characteristics of market segmentation and seasoned equity offerings. We find that the abnormal returns on A-share companies that also offer B shares are significantly negative, a result consistent with the hypothesis that the demand curve for equity shares is downward sloping. Interestingly, these negative abnormal returns can be explained by our proxies for the investor recognition theory of Merton (1987) and the liquidity theory of Amihud and Mendelson (1986) .

The dynamic relationship of volatility, volume, and market depth in currency futures markets

Abstract This study examines the dynamic interactions among return volatilities, volume, and market depth for five currency futures markets. We use vector autoregressive analysis (VAR) to identify not only the nature of these relations but also the direction and speed of the information flow between variables. We find that return volatility is subject to strong reversal effects from trading volume and market depth. The results also indicate that the volatility appears to have predictive power on volume but not on market depth. Furthermore, this study finds that volume and depth are not endogenously determined, as their lead–lag relationship is asymmetrical. We also observe an increasing trend of integration between offshore and domestic information that affects the movement of currency futures prices.

Information Flows Between the U.S. and China Commodity Futures Trading

Using a bivariate GARCH model, we examine patterns of information flows for three commodity futures traded in both the developed U.S. market and the emerging China market (copper, soybeans and wheat). For copper and soybeans, the two commodities that are subject to less government regulation and fewer import restrictions in China, we find that the U.S. futures market plays a dominant role in transmitting information to the Chinese market, a result that confirms the importance of the U.S. role as a leader in the global financial market. For the heavily regulated and subsidized wheat commodity, our empirical results indicate that the U.S.-China futures markets are highly segmented in pricing, although information transmission via volatility spillover across markets is present.

Underwriting Cycles in Property and Liability Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of Industry and By- Line Data

Using industry and by-line data, we examine the causes of insurance cycles in a vector autoregressive model. Some of the important findings are summarized below. First, the uncertainty variable explains significant portions of forecast errors of premiums. Second, the significant factors that determine premiums are different for different lines. Third, investment incomes in general are more important for long-tail lines than short-tail lines. Evidence on the response of premiums to shocks suggests that all one-time shocks to variables tend to be relatively permanent. The overall results seem to imply that no single hypothesis is able to explain the insurance cycle.

The international transmission of eurodollar and US interest rates: A cointegration analysis

Abstract The relationship between US and Eurodollar certificate of deposit (CD) rates for the period 1981–1988 is examined using an error correction model. Results indicate that there is a structural change in the CD rates. In the earlier sub-period (1981–1983), there exists unidirectional causality leading from the domestic to the external markets. In the more recent sub-period (1984–1988), however, significant reverse causality is observed. These results are likely due to expansion in the size of the Eurodollar market and an increase in the volume of Eurodollar futures trading.

Red chips or H shares : which China-backed securities process information the fastest?

Abstract This study examines the information flow between China-backed securities, namely H shares, red chips, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed common shares. We document several findings. We find that an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (EGARCH-M) model appears to describe adequately the return process of the China-backed securities. Our empirical findings show that both H shares and red chips (which are listed in Hong Kong) are more sensitive to ‘good’ news than ‘bad’ news, while stocks listed in the China market are more sensitive to ‘bad’ news than ‘good’ news. Using a multivariate EGARCH-M model, we have found significant return and volatility spillover effects among the China-backed securities. Our study indicates that the red chips appear to spread information to other China-backed markets ‘directly’ or ‘indirectly’. The results imply that the red chip market processes information faster than the other markets.