I. Bartos

Predictions for the Rates of Compact Binary Coalescences Observable by Ground-based Gravitational-wave Detectors

We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr−1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr−1 MWEG−1 to 1000 Myr−1 MWEG−1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO–Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10−4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron–star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO–Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

Fluctuation scaling in complex systems: Taylor's law and beyond1

Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average activity. This relationship is often of the form ‘fluctuations ≈ constant × averageα’, where the exponent α is predominantly in the range [1/2, 1]. This power law has been observed in a very wide range of disciplines, ranging from population dynamics through the Internet to the stock market and it is often treated under the names Taylors law or fluctuation scaling. This review attempts to show how general the above scaling relationship is by surveying the literature, as well as by reporting some new empirical data and model calculations. We also show some basic principles that can underlie the generality of the phenomenon. This is followed by a mean-field framework based on sums of random variables. In this context the emergence of fluctuation scaling is equivalent to some corresponding limit theorems. In certain physical systems fluctuation scaling can be related to finite size scaling. 1Dedicated to the memory of L. R. Taylor (1924–2007).

Quantification of gait parameters in freely walking wild type and sensory deprived Drosophila melanogaster.

Coordinated walking in vertebrates and multi-legged invertebrates such as Drosophila melanogaster requires a complex neural network coupled to sensory feedback. An understanding of this network will benefit from systems such as Drosophila that have the ability to genetically manipulate neural activities. However, the flys small size makes it challenging to analyze walking in this system. In order to overcome this limitation, we developed an optical method coupled with high-speed imaging that allows the tracking and quantification of gait parameters in freely walking flies with high temporal and spatial resolution. Using this method, we present a comprehensive description of many locomotion parameters, such as gait, tarsal positioning, and intersegmental and left-right coordination for wild type fruit flies. Surprisingly, we find that inactivation of sensory neurons in the flys legs, to block proprioceptive feedback, led to deficient step precision, but interleg coordination and the ability to execute a tripod gait were unaffected. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00231.001

Implementation and testing of the first prompt search for gravitational wave transients with electromagnetic counterparts

Aims. A transient astrophysical event observed in both gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) channels would yield rich scientific rewards. A first program initiating EM follow-ups to possible transient GW events has been developed and exercised by the LIGO and Virgo community in association with several partners. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the methods used to promptly identify and localize GW event candidates and to request images of targeted sky locations. Methods. During two observing periods (Dec. 17, 2009 to Jan. 8, 2010 and Sep. 2 to Oct. 20, 2010), a low-latency analysis pipeline was used to identify GW event candidates and to reconstruct maps of possible sky locations. A catalog of nearby galaxies and Milky Way globular clusters was used to select the most promising sky positions to be imaged, and this directional information was delivered to EM observatories with time lags of about thirty minutes. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to evaluate the low-latency GW pipelines ability to reconstruct source positions correctly. Results. For signals near the detection threshold, our low-latency algorithms often localized simulated GW burst signals to tens of square degrees, while neutron star/neutron star inspirals and neutron star/black hole inspirals were localized to a few hundred square degrees. Localization precision improves for moderately stronger signals. The correct sky location of signals well above threshold and originating from nearby galaxies may be observed with similar to 50% or better probability with a few pointings of wide-field telescopes.Aims. A transient astrophysical event observed in both gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) channels would yield rich scientific rewards. A first program initiating EM follow-ups to possible transient GW events has been developed and exercised by the LIGO and Virgo community in association with several partners. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the methods used to promptly identify and localize GW event candidates and to request images of targeted sky locations. Methods. During two observing periods (Dec 17 2009 to Jan 8 2010 and Sep 2 to Oct 20 2010), a low-latency analysis pipeline was used to identify GW event candidates and to reconstruct maps of possible sky locations. A catalog of nearby galaxies and Milky Way globular clusters was used to select the most promising sky positions to be imaged, and this directional information was delivered to EM observatories with time lags of about thirty minutes. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to evaluate the low-latency GW pipelines ability to reconstruct source positions correctly. Results. For signals near the detection threshold, our low-latency algorithms often localized simulated GW burst signals to tens of square degrees, while neutron star/neutron star inspirals and neutron star/black hole inspirals were localized to a few hundred square degrees. Localization precision improves for moderately stronger signals. The correct sky location of signals well above threshold and originating from nearby galaxies may be observed with ~50% or better probability with a few pointings of wide-field telescopes.

Search for gravitational-wave bursts associated with gamma-ray bursts using data from LIGO science run 5 and VIRGO science run 1.

We present the results of a search for gravitational-wave bursts associated with 137 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) that were detected by satellite-based gamma-ray experiments during the fifth LIGO science run and first Virgo science run. The data used in this analysis were collected from 2005 November 4 to 2007 October 1, and most of the GRB triggers were from the Swift satellite. The search uses a coherent network analysis method that takes into account the different locations and orientations of the interferometers at the three LIGO-Virgo sites. We find no evidence for gravitational-wave burst signals associated with this sample of GRBs. Using simulated short-duration (<1 s) waveforms, we set upper limits on the amplitude of gravitational waves associated with each GRB. We also place lower bounds on the distance to each GRB under the assumption of a fixed energy emission in gravitational waves, with typical limits of D ~ 15 Mpc (E_GW^iso / 0.01 M_o c^2)^1/2 for emission at frequencies around 150 Hz, where the LIGO-Virgo detector network has best sensitivity. We present astrophysical interpretations and implications of these results, and prospects for corresponding searches during future LIGO-Virgo runs.

Correlation properties of daily temperature anomalies over land

Several thousands of temperature records from the Global Daily Climatology Network are analysed by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Long-range temporal power-law correlations extending up to several years are detected for each station. Contrary to earlier claims, the correlation exponent is not universal for continental locations. Short-range correlations are also evaluated by DFA and by first order autoregressive models. The strength of short- and long-range temporal correlations seems to be coupled for large geographic areas. The spatial patterns are quite complex, simple parameter dependence such as elevation or distance from oceans cannot explain the observed variability.

Rapid and Bright Stellar-mass Binary Black Hole Mergers in Active Galactic Nuclei

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory, LIGO, found direct evidence for double black hole binaries emitting gravitational waves. Galactic nuclei are expected to harbor the densest population of stellar-mass black holes. A significant fraction (

First search for gravitational waves from the youngest known neutron star

\sim30\%

How gravitational-wave observations can shape the gamma-ray burst paradigm

) of these black holes can reside in binaries. We examine the fate of the black hole binaries in active galactic nuclei, which get trapped in the inner region of the accretion disk around the central supermassive black hole. We show that binary black holes can migrate into and then rapidly merge within the disk well within a Salpeter time. The binaries may also accrete a significant amount of gas from the disk, well above the Eddington rate. This could lead to detectable X-ray or gamma-ray emission, but would require hyper-Eddington accretion with a few percent radiative efficiency, comparable to thin disks. We discuss implications for gravitational wave observations and black hole population studies. We estimate that Advanced LIGO may detect

A population of short-period variable quasars from PTF as supermassive black hole binary candidates

\sim20