I. Suresh

Surface layer temperature inversion in the Bay of Bengal: Main characteristics and related mechanisms

Surface layer temperature inversion (SLTI), a warm layer sandwiched between surface and subsurface colder waters, has been reported to frequently occur in conjunction with barrier layers in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), with potentially commensurable impacts on climate and postmonsoon tropical cyclones. Lack of systematic measurements from the BoB in the past prevented a thorough investigation of the SLTI spatiotemporal variability, their formation mechanisms, and their contribution to the surface temperature variations. The present study benefits from the recent Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) buoys located in BoB along 90°E at 4°N, 8°N, 12°N, and 15°N over the 2006–2014 period. Analysis of data from these RAMA buoys indicates that SLTI forms after the summer monsoon and becomes fully developed during winter (December–February). SLTI exhibits a strong geographical dependency, with more frequent (80% times during winter) and intense inversions (amplitude, ΔT ∼ 0.7°C) occurring only in the northern BoB compared to central and southern Bay. SLTI also exhibits large interannual and intraseasonal variations, with intraseasonal amplitude significantly larger (ΔT ∼ 0.44°C) than the interannual amplitude (∼0.26°C). Heat budget analysis of the mixed layer reveals that the net surface heat loss is the most dominant process controlling the formation and maintenance of SLTI. However, there are instances of episodic advection of cold, low-saline waters over warm-saline waters leading to the formation of SLTI as in 2012–2013. Vertical processes contribute significantly to the mixed layer heat budget during winter, by warming the surface layer through entrainment and vertical diffusion.

Dominant role of winds near Sri Lanka in driving seasonal sea level variations along the west coast of India

The strong seasonal cycle of sea level along the west coast of India (WCI) has important consequences for ecosystem and fisheries, and the Lakshadweep high/low in the southeast Arabian Sea is important for fisheries and the Indian summer monsoon. Previous studies suggested that WCI sea-level variability is primarily driven by remote wind forcing from the Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean through coastal Kelvin wave propagation. Using a linear ocean model, we demonstrate that wind forcing in a relatively small region around the southern tip of India and east of Sri Lanka contribute to ~ 60% of this variability. Wind variations from the rest of the Bay and the equator only account respectively for ~20% and ~10%. Sea-level signals forced by the “southern tip” winds extend westward into the eastern Arabian Sea through Rossby wave propagation, with more than 50% contribution in the Lakshadweep high/low region.

Robust Projected Weakening of Winter Monsoon Winds Over the Arabian Sea Under Climate Change

The response of the Indian winter monsoon to climate change has received considerably less attention than that of the summer monsoon. We show here that all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models display a consistent reduction (of 6.5% for Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 3.5% for 4.5, on an average) of the winter monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea at the end of 21st century. This projected reduction weakens but remains robust when corrected for overestimated winter Arabian Sea winds in CMIP5. This weakening is driven by a reduction in the interhemispheric sea level pressure gradient resulting from enhanced warming of the dry Arabian Peninsula relative to the southern Indian Ocean. The wind weakening reduces winter oceanic heat losses to the atmosphere and deepening of convective mixed layer in the northern Arabian Sea and hence can potentially inhibit the seasonal chlorophyll bloom that contributes substantially to the Arabian Sea annual productivity.