I.V. Basawa

Recursive Prediction and Likelihood Evaluation for Periodic ARMA Models

This paper explores recursive prediction and likelihood evaluation techniques for periodic autoregressive moving-average (PARMA) time series models. The innovations algorithm is used to develop a simple recursive scheme for computing one-step-ahead predictors and their mean squared errors. The asymptotic form of this recursion is explored. The prediction results are then used to develop an efficient (and exact) PARMA likelihood evaluation algorithm for Gaussian series. We then show how a multivariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) likelihood can be evaluated by writing the multivariate ARMA model in PARMA form. Explicit calculations for PARMA(1, 1) models and periodic autoregressions are included.

Large Sample Properties of Parameter Estimates for Periodic ARMA Models

This paper studies the asymptotic properties of parameter estimates for causal and invertible periodic autoregressive moving‐average (PARMA) time series models. A general limit result for PARMA parameter estimates with a moving‐average component is derived. The paper presents examples that explicitly identify the limiting covariance matrix for parameter estimates from a general periodic autoregression (PAR), a first‐order periodic moving average (PMA(1)), and the mixed PARMA(1,1) model. Some comparisons and contrasts to univariate and vector autoregressive moving‐average sequences are made.

Maximum likelihood estimation for single server queues from waiting time data

Maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a GI/G/1 queue are derived based on the information on waiting times {Wt},t=1,...,n, ofn successive customers. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are established. A simulation study of the M/M/1 and M/Ek/1 queues is presented.

Large sample inference from single server queues

Problems of large sample estimation and tests for the parameters in a single server queue are discussed. The service time and the interarrivai time densities are assumed to belong to (positive) exponential families. The queueing system is observed over a continuous time interval (0,T] whereT is determined by a suitable stopping rule. The limit distributions of the estimates are obtained in a unified setting, and without imposing the ergodicity condition on the queue length process. Generalized linear models, in particular, log-linear models are considered when several independent queues are observed. The mean service times and the mean interarrival times after appropriate transformations are assumed to satisfy a linear model involving unknown parameters of interest, and known covariates. These models enhance the scope and the usefulness of the standard queueing systems.

Parameter estimation for generalized random coefficient autoregressive processes

A generalized random coefficient autoregressive (GRCA) process is introduced in which the random coefficients are permitted to be correlated with the error process. The ordinary random coefficient autoregressive process, the Markovian bilinear model and its generalization, and the random coefficient exponential autoregressive process, among others, are seen to be special cases of the GRCA process. Conditional least squares, and weighted least-squares estimators of the mean of the random coefficient vector are derived and their limit distributions are studied. Estimators of the variance-covariance parameters are also discussed. A simulation study is presented which shows that the weighted least-squares estimator dominates the unweighted least-squares estimator.

Empirical Bayes estimation for queueing systems and networks

Empirical Bayes estimators are derived for standardM/M/1 queues,M/M/1 queues with state-dependent arrival and service rates, finite capacityM/M/1 queues with state-dependent rates and for open Jackson networks. The asymptotic properties of the empirical Bayes estimators are derived both with respect to the conditional distribution of the observations given the parameters, and with respect to the joint distribution of the observations and the parameters.

Empirical best linear unbiased and empirical Bayes prediction in multivariate small area estimation

Abstract Small area estimation plays a prominent role in survey sampling due to a growing demand for reliable small area estimates from both public and private sectors. Popularity of model-based inference is increasing in survey sampling, particularly, in small area estimation. The estimates of the small area parameters can profitably ‘borrow strength’ from data on related multiple characteristics and/or auxiliary variables from other neighboring areas through appropriate models. Fay (1987, Small Area Statistics, Wiley, New York, pp. 91–102) proposed multivariate regression for small area estimation of multiple characteristics. The success of this modeling rests essentially on the strength of correlation of these dependent variables. To estimate small area mean vectors of multiple characteristics, multivariate modeling has been proposed in the literature via a multivariate variance components model. We use this approach to empirical best linear unbiased and empirical Bayes prediction of small area mean vectors. We use data from Battese et al. (1988, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83, 28 –36) to conduct a simulation which shows that the multivariate approach may achieve substantial improvement over the usual univariate approach.

Asymptotic optimal inference for multivariate branching-Markov processes via martingale estimating functions and mixed normality

Multivariate tree-indexed Markov processes are discussed with applications. A Galton-Watson super-critical branching process is used to model the random tree-indexed process. Martingale estimating functions are used as a basic framework to discuss asymptotic properties and optimality of estimators and tests. The limit distributions of the estimators turn out to be mixtures of normals rather than normal. Also, the non-null limit distributions of standard test statistics such as Wald, Raos score, and likelihood ratio statistics are shown to have mixtures of non-central chi-square distributions. The models discussed in this paper belong to the local asymptotic mixed normal family. Consequently, non-standard limit results are obtained.

Branching Markov processes and related asymptotics

Models for Markov processes indexed by a branching process are presented. The new class of models is referred to as the branching Markov process (BMP). The law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the BMP are established. Bifurcating autoregressive processes (BAR) are special cases of the general BMP model discussed in the paper. Applications to parameter estimation are also presented.

Parameter estimation in a regression model with random coefficient autoregressive errors

Abstract The least squares estimators of the regression and the autoregression parameters are obtained for a regression model with random coefficient autoregression errors. The limit distribution of the least squares estimators are obtained using a weighted central limit theorem for m -dependent processes. The proof of the weighted central limit theorem for m -dependent processes is also given.