I.W. Evett

A model for case assessment and interpretation

The authors describe a new approach to decision-making in an operational forensic science organization based on a model, embodying the principles of Bayesian inference, which has been developed through workshops run within the Forensic Science Service for forensic science practitioners. Issues which arise from the idea of pre-assessment of cases are explored by means of a case example.

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements

The Forensic Science Service (FSS) has devoted appreciable effort to developing the application of the principles of evidence interpretation. Much of the work has been reported in previous papers in this journal, in particular those that develop a model for Case Assessment and Interpretation (CAI). The principles of interpretation are restated and the implications for structure and content of statements are described.

More on the hierarchy of propositions: exploring the distinction between explanations and propositions

Interpretation of the weight of scientific evidence depends upon the framing of at least two competing propositions to weigh against each other. It is the stage of framing propositions that is the most difficult aspect of evidence interpretation. The logical structure for case assessment and interpretation has been described by the authors in three previous papers [Cook R, et al. A model for case assessment and interpretation. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 151-156. Cook R, et al. A hierarchy of propositions: deciding which level to address in casework. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 231-239. Cook R, et al. Case pre-assessment and review in a two-way transfer case. Science & Justice 1999; 39: 103-111]. This paper considers the framing of propositions in greater detail, in particular the intermediate stage of exploring less formal explanations. All of the discussion is based on experiences encountered in workshops with caseworking forensic scientists.

Inferring ethnic origin by means of an STR profile

We report the use of DNA profiles from six STR loci for inferring the ethnic origin of a crime stain and discuss how such inference may be used as intelligence information to reduce the expected number of interviews to resolve a case. To enable this work, databases have been created for five British ethnic groups (Caucasians, Afro-Caribbeans, Indian sub-continentals, Southeast Asians and Middle Easterners) that together comprise 99.7% of the UK population.

Taking Account of Peak Areas when Interpreting Mixed DNA Profiles

This paper establishes a logical framework for taking account of peak areas when interpreting mixed DNA STR profiles. The principles apply wherever such data are available but they are illustrated here by means of data which have been collected from made up mixtures of known concentrations analyzed at short tandem repeat loci. The data have led to some modeling assumptions which are used for numerical examples. In actual casework the proportions of the various components will not be known and there is a discussion of whether they should be allowed for by integrating over a prior distribution. This is a conceptual paper, rather than a prescription for casework, and the scope for further work is outlined.

A guide to interpreting single locus profiles of DNA mixtures in forensic cases

Analysis of a mixed body fluid crime sample by means of a single locus DNA probe may give rise to several bands. If a suspect is found to have a profile which matches two of the bands, then the evaluation of the evidential strength requires careful analysis. This paper describes the analysis of two relatively simple case examples. It is intended that the principles of the interpretative process will provide a guide to caseworkers who may encounter similar cases. The extension of the treatment to more complex cases should be clear.

The nature of forensic science opinion—a possible framework to guide thinking and practicce in investigation and in court proceedings

The questions that are asked of forensic scientists during the course of a criminal investigation, and during subsequent court proceedings, are of varied form. This paper attempts to place these questions into broad generic types and explores the difference in the inferential process that a scientist may employ when forming opinions that help answer these questions. From this model, a working definition of different roles and attributes for forensic scientists is described which may offer greater clarity for both practitioners and users of forensic science.

A Bayesian Approach to the Problem of Interpreting Glass Evidence in Forensic Science Casework

Abstract A new approach is described to the problem of interpreting the evidential value of glass fragments found on the clothing of a person who is suspected of having committed a crime. The problem is described in a formal sense and a brief review is given of previous papers which have been written on the problem. It is then shown how the Bayesian argument can be applied. Numerical examples are given, based on data abstracted from various sources.

Evidence evaluation: A response to the court of appeal judgment in R v T

This is a discussion of a number of issues that arise from the recent judgment in R v T [1]. Although the judgment concerned with footwear evidence, more general remarks have implications for all disciplines within forensic science. Our concern is that the judgment will be interpreted as being in opposition to the principles of logical interpretation of evidence. We reiterate those principles and then discuss several extracts from the judgment that may be potentially harmful to the future of forensic science. A position statement with regard to evidence evaluation, signed by many forensic scientists, statisticians and lawyers, has appeared in this journal [2] and the present paper expands on the points made in that statement.

Earmarks as evidence: a critical review.

The use of earmarks as evidence in criminal trials appears to be expanding, but there is something of a dearth of peer-reviewed scientific publications to support the pursuit. This paper is a critical review of the current literature in which we emphasize the weaknesses of the present state of knowledge. Some research directions are proposed to gather statistical knowledge of the within-source and between-source variability of earmarks and earprints. Its ultimate goal is to be able to assess likelihood ratios in relation to this type of evidence.