Ian Coxhead

China, India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low-Income Countries

The international role of China has risen steadily for two decades – and has become even more important in the current global recession. The growing supply of labour-intensive manufactured exports from China has been accompanied by a huge expansion in its imports both of raw materials and of skill-intensive manufactured parts and components. This ‘offshoring’ of intermediates production by a large, labour-abundant economy has economic and environmental implications for other developing economies. More recently, the rapid expansion of the Indian economy and trade indicates that it too will soon exert similar effects on global markets. We sketch a model showing how the growth of these developing-country ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on other developing economies. We discuss in particular how differences in relative factor endowments of resource-rich economies can produce quite different outcomes in the context of product fragmentation and expanding commodity trade. We also explore the effects on production, trade, environment and prospects for future growth in resource-rich economies, particularly in the context of weak institutions and other market failures. We illustrate these different impacts by considering the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and highlight implications for growth, development and policy.

ProSPeCtS for SkIllS-baSed exPort growth In a labour-abundant, reSourCe-rICh develoPIng eConomy

Abstract In an integrated global economy, specialisation in trade is an increasingly prominent strategy. A labour-abundant, resource-rich economy like Indonesia faces stiff competition in labour-intensive manufactures; meanwhile, rapid growth in demand for resources from China and India exposes it to the ‘curse’ of resource wealth. This diminishes prospects for more diversified growth based on renewable resources like human capital. Using an international panel data set we explore the influence of resource wealth, foreign direct investment and human capital on the share of skill-intensive products in exports. FDI and human capital increase this share; resource wealth diminishes it. We use the results to compare Indonesia with Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesias reliance on skill-intensive exports would have been greater had it achieved higher levels of FDI and skills. Its performance in accumulating these endowments, and its relative resource abundance, impede diversification in production and trade. We present policy options flowing from these findings.