Ian Crute

Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70–100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Governments Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

The future of the global food system.

Although food prices in major world markets are at or near a historical low, there is increasing concern about food security—the ability of the world to provide healthy and environmentally sustainable diets for all its peoples. This article is an introduction to a collection of reviews whose authors were asked to explore the major drivers affecting the food system between now and 2050. A first set of papers explores the main factors affecting the demand for food (population growth, changes in consumption patterns, the effects on the food system of urbanization and the importance of understanding income distributions) with a second examining trends in future food supply (crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and ‘wild food’). A third set explores exogenous factors affecting the food system (climate change, competition for water, energy and land, and how agriculture depends on and provides ecosystem services), while the final set explores cross-cutting themes (food system economics, food wastage and links with health). Two of the clearest conclusions that emerge from the collected papers are that major advances in sustainable food production and availability can be achieved with the concerted application of current technologies (given sufficient political will), and the importance of investing in research sooner rather than later to enable the food system to cope with both known and unknown challenges in the coming decades.

The role of resistance breeding in the integrated control of downy mildew (Bremia lactucae) in protected lettuce

Over the last 30 years, six resistance alleles (Dm2, Dm3, Dm6, Dm7, Dm11 and Dm16) located in two linkage groups, have contributed to the control of downy mildew in lettuce crops grown under protection (glass or polythene) in northern Europe. More recently, an as yet genetically uncharacterised resistance factor, R18, has also begun to assume importance. The occurrence of the various combinations of these resistance alleles that exist in commercial cultivars has been dictated by the pathotypes of Bremia lactucae used in their selection but also restricted by linkage in repulsion. In the UK, a pathotype of B. lactucae insensitive to phenylamide fungicides, such as metalaxyl, emerged in 1978 and became prevalent throughout lettuce production areas in subsequent years. The specific virulence of this pathotype was identical to the previously described phenylamide sensitive pathotype NL10 and cultivars carrying Dm11, Dm16 or R18 were resistant. Consequently, an integrated control strategy based on the utilisation of metalaxyl on cultivars carrying Dm11 provided effective control in UK until 1987 when a new phenylamide insensitive pathotype began to cause problems. The specific virulence of this second pathotype, which was first reported in the Netherlands and France, was identical to the previously described phenylamide sensitive pathotype NL15. Cultivars carrying Dm6, Dm16 or R18, but not Dm11, were resistant to NL15; consequently an appropriate change in the cultivar recommendations for use in the integrated control strategy was successfully promulgated. It is predicted that variations of this integrated control strategy involving the use of appropriately selected Dm gene combinations may prove effective for some time. This prediction is based on studies of the status of the avirulence loci in the two phenylamide insensitive pathotypes and of the specific virulence characteristics of phenylamide sensitive components of the pathogen population.

Rationalization of genes for resistance to Bremia lactucae in lettuce

Lettuce downy mildew caused by Bremia lactucae is the most important disease of lettuce worldwide. Breeding for resistance to this disease is a major priority for most lettuce breeding programs. Many genes and factors for resistance to B. lactucae have been reported by multiple researchers over the past ~50xa0years. Their nomenclature has not been coordinated, resulting in duplications and gaps in nominations. We have reviewed the available information and rationalized it into 51 resistance genes and factors and 15 quantitative trait loci along with supporting documentation as well as genetic and molecular information. This involved multiple rounds of consultation with many of the original authors. This paper provides the foundation for naming additional genes for resistance to B. lactucae in the future as well as for deploying genes to provide more durable resistance.

Steve McKevitt and Tony Ryan: Project Sunshine – how science can use the sun to fuel and feed the world

Steve McKevitt and Tony Ryan: Project Sunshine – how science can use the sun to fuel and feed the world Agriculture is a human activity that involves the purposeful management of land in order to convert solar energy into chemical energy and provide a range of requirements, most notably food, but also fibre, fuel, dyes and drugs. In their ambitious book, Project Sunshine , McKevitt and Ryan address mankinds ever-increasing demand for energy, our relatively recent dependency on fossil fuels and the options that exist for us to break this dependency, as surely we must. If our descendents are to prosper when the products of photosynthe-sis from 10 million years ago are exhausted, the authors argue that choices need to be made now about where we invest our intellect to provide our future energy requirements. It is the energy requirements for agriculture and food production, addressing the most basic of human needs, which the authors use to illustrate the urgency of the issue. They conclude, with forceful arguments, that energy derived directly from the sun is the safest, most certain and secure source of energy on which to base a sustainable future for the human race. Some professional scientists, myself included, enjoy reading popular science books. When well-written, they make unfamiliar disciplines accessible and provide insights into the worlds inhabited by other scientists. Consequently, as a crop scientist, and as I expected would be the case, there was little new to me in the chapters dealing with well-rehearsed issues relating to agriculture and provision of global food security during the 21st century. In contrast, I learned much from the chapters dealing with current and potential sources of energy and particularly the authors treatment of the range of nuclear technologies. The dispassionate and analytical approach taken to this subject was well-balanced and thought-provoking. I particularly appreciated the lack of overt advo-cacy and selectivity with evidence that can sometimes devalue popular treatments of important but emotive subjects. Additionally , I much appreciated the short and illuminating historical perspectives on the drivers that forced the transition from the use of biomass energy to exploitation of coal and other fossil fuels. However, in their historical perspectives, the authors did tend to adopt a rather Euro-centric emphasis. Taken together, this book offers rewards to both the well-informed and uninformed reader. The book opens with the observation that mankind has been around for about …