Ian Lowe

An Ecological Footprint Analysis for Australia

An Ecological Footprint is defined as the area of land needed to produce the natural resources a population consumes and to assimilate the waste that population produces. By providing a link between consumption and lifestyle and available ecological space, the Ecological Footprint illustrates the concepts of carrying capacity and sustainability. This article presents the results of a detailed study of Australia. The results indicate the Ecological Footprint of the average Australian is approximately 6 hectares per capita. This is more than 4 times the globally available ‘fair share’, placing Australia among the top five consuming nations in the world. This result highlights the unsustainable global nature of the Australian lifestyle, particularly the level of consumption of energy and animal products, with large inequities between Western countries such as Australia, and developing countries.

Improving electricity planning — Use of a multicriteria decision making model☆

Electricity supply planners are now expected to consider a wide range of supply and demand options to meet future power needs. The evaluation is also expected to consider multiple objectives in such diverse areas as quality of supply, cost, environmental and social impacts. Further, there are a range of views on the appropriate weightings for those various considerations. Traditional methods for determining choices are no longer adequate. This paper outlines the development of a powerful tool to facilitate a multiobjectivedriven electricity planning process. The multicriteria decision making model allows the evaluation of options against a wide range of criteria, grouped in a hierarchical structure. A formalism for comparing options is explored, showing that the model allows a planner to compare the range of alternatives against both a desired level of performance and a minimum acceptable level. The architecture of a computer-based decision support system is briefly described.

Shaping a sustainable future – an outline of the transition

The warnings from scientists are urgent and unequivocal: our civilisation is unwittingly stepping in front of an ecological lorry that is about to flatten us (Steffen, W., et al., 2004. Global change and the earth system: a planet under pressure. Berlin: Springer-Verlag). We are using resources future generations will need, damaging environmental systems and compromising social stability by increasing the gap between rich and poor. In short, we are consuming the future. Without a radical re-thinking of the way we currently live, our society is doomed. We need to tackle this problem head-on and develop far-reaching solutions to our environmental and social crisis. This does not just require technical innovation. It also demands fundamental changes to our values and our social institutions. This paper develops a vision of a HEALTHIER society – one that is Humane, takes an Eco-centric approach, adopts Long-term thinking, uses our natural resources responsibly, is Informed about the fragility of our natural systems, is Efficient in turning resources into the services we need and is Resourced from natural flows of energy. The paper goes on to suggest the first concrete steps toward achieving this sort of desirable future. History has shown that human systems can change very quickly. Once we realise the need for a new direction – and act on it – an equitable and sustainable world is within reach. If civilisation is to survive, this century will have to be a time of dramatic transformation, not just in technical capacity but also in our approach to the natural world – and each other. The road we are travelling now can only end in disaster.

Transitioning to sustainability: pathways, directions and opportunities

The transition to sustainability requires not only an understanding of the risks that society is facing but the development of pathways that will enable the shift towards sustainability. Such risks include not only resources and global warming but also established economic models and social ethics and values. This paper identifies how the risks facing global societies are being addressed, and outlines methods that are being used to identify and create dialogues with stakeholders. Cities, due to their direct role in ensuring that the needs of their communities are met, are providing leading visions and strategies in achieving sustainability in collaboration with other cities and with companies. Models for identifying stakeholders and enabling multiple perspectives to be integrated into discussions have been developed and are being put into practice. These are being enhanced through use of computer models, geographic information systems, mind mapping and matrix tools to develop visions and strategies for sustainable cities.

Producing a Better World Theory, Education, and Consulting

There are always many different futures available, depending on social choices. These choices involve various costs and benefits, so they often have different impacts on different individuals or groups. There will be significant problems in moving from the current development trajectory, which clearly cannot be sustained, toward one that might be sustainable, as the changes will impose differential costs. Futures thinking provides a powerful way of considering our options and improving the chances that we will make rational, considered decisions. In particular, it allows consideration of the needs of those who cannot participate in the normal decision-making process, such as future generations. The use of futures thinking in a range of teaching, research, and consulting activities is described, demonstrating the benefits of the approach.

Greenhouse gas mitigation: Policy options

Abstract Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require changes to the pattern of energy supply and use. Energy use is largely shaped by social factors, as is clear from comparative studies which show that there is no simple link between energy use and either wealth or climate. The same conclusion emerges from studies of the changing pattern of energy use over time in a given society. Consumer demand is not for energy as an abstract quantity but for energy services such as motive power, transport, heating and lighting. The level of demand for each of these services is largely determined by social factors. There is little evidence for the common belief that the pattern of energy use results from consumers making rational choices in a free market to maximise marginal utility. In many cases, the consumer sees no price signal at the point of use. Where there are partial price signals, as in the case of transport fuels, energy demand is highly inelastic. These considerations are crucial if there is an aim of changing the pattern of energy use. Demand for energy can be influenced by price signals, by legislation or by changing social attitudes. There is a common belief that changing demand could result in unacceptable disruption, based on the scale of price changes needed to influence demand. This body of evidence really shows that increasing prices is not a promising way to influence demand patterns. Changing social attitudes are the key to behavioural change and central to the acceptability of regulatory change. Thus significant alteration in the pattern of energy use is unlikely to occur without an improved understanding of the social dimensions of energy use.

A Hierarchical Decision Support System for Integrated Resource Planning

ABSTRACT The integrated resource planning methodology specifically compares supply—side options with demand—side options on an equal basis and includes all costs to society, including environmental cost, to determine the most appropriate selection of options for the best satisfaction of societal needs. Traditional methods for determining choices, particularly those which are intuition-based, are no longer adequate. For the integrated resource planning process to achieve the most appropriate outcome for society, many decision—making criteria need to be evaluated. This paper demonstrates that the adaptation of multicriteria- based methods to integrated resource planning assists energy policy makers while dealing with a range of, and often conflicting, objectives.

Australian innovation under threat

An apparently successful tax-break scheme to stimulate private-sector investment in research and development has been the victim of illogical cost-cutting. Pressure is building to have it restored.

Measurement and Objectivity: Some Problems of Energy Technology

It has been almost an axiom of practising scientists and technologists that they deal in objective knowledge, with the arbiter between competing theories being the impartial measurement of a specified variable. In what follows, a range of examples from the broad field of energy technology are considered. The examples chosen are the hazards of low-level ionising radiation, the operating safety of nuclear reactors, the containment of radioactive waste, the life-time of energy resources, and the viability of “alternative” energy sources. Brief references to other controversial measurements — causal links with incidence of cancer, the testing of pharmaceuticals, the safety of the irradiation of food and the efficacy of fluoridating public water supplies — establish that the conclusions drawn from these examples have a much wider generality.

Corporations, Their Associations and Climate Action

How do capitalist formations affect the climate crisis; are there inconsistencies between corporations and industry associations in the extent to which they engage with climate change issues; and if so, what purposes do industry associations and related think tanks serve? We outline the nature of the climate crisis and the problems arising from lack of adequate action and develop a model of capitalism and the carbon economy that distinguishes between corporations engaged in ‘blue’ and ‘brown’ capitalist accumulation, and locate divisions within capital within this framework. We show that industry associations and think tanks, while sometimes representing the interests of corporations as a whole, will, on average, also take positions that are more supportive of climate denial than many corporations themselves. This discrepancy between the positioning of corporations and industry associations appears to be greatest in North America and least in Asia. Finally, we conclude with an elaboration of how these concepts relate. One possible explanation for the discrepancy between industry associations and individual corporations is that the latter’s behaviour become responsive to and dominated by the target corporations with the most to lose from responding to the climate crisis. A second possibility is that industry associations are reflecting the true interests of their members, providing ‘distancing’ of controversial ideas from the corporations that constitute them, enabling corporations to pretend to support climate change action but fund activities against it. In all likelihood, they are a combination of both. In doing so, industry associations also become independent actors themselves, influencing the practices and ideologies of corporations, the state and the public.