Ian Wilson

From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action

Abstract Scenarios are not an end in themselves. They are a management tool used to improve the quality of executive decision making. However, experience shows that using scenarios in this way proves more difficult than developing them. This article examines the causes of this implementation problem and suggests ways of overcoming the cultural bias toward single-point forecasting. Starting with a clear-cut decision focus for the scenarios, the author develops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to strategy, outlining four different approaches. He suggests that only after a great deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary approach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to strategy.

Realizing the power of strategic vision

Abstract This article defines the concept of strategic vision, seeing ‘vision’ as a coherent and powerful statement of what the business should aim to become. It must be realistic about the market, competitive, economic, and regulatory conditions and reflect the values and aspirations of management, employees, and stakeholders. In uncertain and difficult times visioning is vital to establish direction.

The state of strategic planning : What went wrong? What goes right?

Abstract After a heyday in the 1970s, strategic planning flagged in popularity. Disillusionment among many executives about the results of strategic planning, together with the recessions of the early 1980s, led to the decimation of many corporate planning staffs. However, the need for systematic, comprehensive, and long-term planning still exists. This analysis examines why strategic planning failed and discusses new approaches to strategic management that are designed to avoid past problems. It derives from a presentation to The Greater St. Louis Planning Forum in April 1988.

Scenario planning for Norwegian oil and gas

Abstract The authors describe a case study of scenario-based decision-making to develop a research and development strategy for oil and gas exploration and production. They develop decision-focused scenarios having established the ‘decision-focus’ and assessed the dynamics of the external environment. Having identified the strategy alternatives and interpreted the scenarios for R & D implications, a flexible strategy is developed and the process is reviewed.

The agenda for redefining corporate purpose: five key executive actions

In the post‐Enron/WorldCom/Tyco environment of public distrust and tightening regulation, corporations must proactively work to regain public trust. In this skeptical environment, they must do more to reflect the fact that corporate legitimacy depends on public acceptance. The new wave of legislation and regulation can achieve only limited results. What is needed is a more radical rethinking, by corporations themselves, of their true role and purpose in society. Restating corporate purpose in terms of social needs rather than solely of maximizing profit is the surest way to be distinguished from the competition, to regain public trust, and to ultimately increase stakeholder (not merely shareowner) value. To ensure the success of this reformation the agenda for executive action must address five key points: (1) develop consensus on a revised statement of corporate purpose and values; (2) clarify the role of profit in the business equation; (3) articulate and communicate the distinctions between the old purpose, values and behaviors and the new; (4) set a strong personal example; and (5) revise the management measurement and reward system.

Competitive strategies for service businesses

Abstract The Journals American Editor writes to introduce a group of articles on the theme ‘Competitive Strategies for Service Businesses’. With the globalization of economic activity, productivity is of immediate concern to business worldwide—and as much in the service industries as in manufacturing. As competition intensifies, industries are re-structured and new technologies are introduced, strategic planning and competitive strategy have an important role to play. The following articles examine the role of planning in the service industries.

Visioning (and preparing for) the future : The introduction of scenarios-based planning into Statoil

Abstract Decision making in uncertain times requires a movement away from single-point forecasting toward more flexible “what-if” thinking. Companies thus need to become “learning organizations,” capable of adapting to rapid changes in their environment. But this requires a change, not only in the planning and decision-making process, but (more significantly) in the culture of the corporation itself. Using as an example a 1987 scenarios-based approach to R&D strategy in Norways Statoil, this article examines the beginning steps taken toward this end—overcoming the inertia of “groupthink,” stimulating greater openness to new ways of thinking and acting, and preparing managers to deal with “surprises” as a way of life, as well as producing a new and resilient R&D strategy.

Decade of transition

Few would argue with the proposition that socially, economically and politically, the United States is in a period of turbulence and uncertainty. We are navigating the rapids, and white water is all around us. In the daily struggle to keep the boat afloat and on course, we have little inclination and less time to look ahead. Perhaps we fear that the future holds more of the same, that our present troubles constitute a new normalcy to which we must inure ourselves. In a remarkable turnaround from traditional American optimism, there is now a pronounced feeling abroad in the land that the present is worse than the past, and that the future will be still worse than the present.

The blooming baby boom

The world, as we are constantly reminded, can be divided into two types of people: those who believe that major social and political changes still lie ahead; and those who are convinced that the world, reacting to the tumultuous changes of the past decade, will return to a new era of “normaley,” if not of tranquillity.

U.S.C.'s center for futures research

The year 1971 saw the appearance on the University of Southern California campus of the Center for Futures Research, “dedicated to research into the fundamental causes and directions of social change and the design of new policies and strategies.” Under the leadership of its director, Dr. Burt Nanus, the Center has built up a first‐rate professional staff and acquired a well‐deserved reputation as one of the most competent and dynamic futures research organizations in the country, on or off campus. In little more than three and a half years the Center has completed a range of projects, and compiled a list of publications, that would do credit to an organization twice its size.