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Featured researches published by Ida A. Mirzaie.


Journal of International Money and Finance | 2002

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Disaggregated Economic Activity in the Us: Theory and Evidence

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect the US sectoral output and price. The evidence indicates that the expansionary and contractionary effects cancel out in determining industrial real output growth in the face of exchange rate fluctuations. More importantly, there is evidence of a reduction in price inflation in several industries, which is statistically significant in Finance, in response to dollar appreciation. This evidence is consistent with the reduction in aggregate demand through the decline in net exports and the increase in aggregate supply through the reduction in the cost of imported intermediate goods.


Bulletin of Economic Research | 2008

Comparative Analysis Of Exchange Rate Appreciation And Aggregate Economic Activity: Theory And Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on real output and price in a sample of 11 developing countries in the Middle East. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel attributed to anticipated exchange rate appreciation results in limited effects on output growth and price inflation. Consistent with theorys predictions, unanticipated appreciation of the exchange rate appears more significant with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.


Journal of International Trade & Economic Development | 2006

Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

Abstract This paper examines determinants of private consumption in a sample of developing countries. The empirical model includes income, a proxy for the cost of consumption, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to trigger adjustment in planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine random transitory adjustment in consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly random with respect to unanticipated changes in income and, to a lesser extent, the exchange rate. Consumption increases during cyclical expansion of income and decreases in the face of an unanticipated increase in the cost of consumption. Exchange rate fluctuations have mixed results on private consumption. As for the effects of domestic policies, fiscal policy has a limited, and sometimes negative, effect on private consumption. Monetary growth, in contrast, stimulates an increase in private consumption. This evidence supports recent calls to decrease the size of government and enhance the role of monetary policy in stimulating private activity in developing countries.


Economic Inquiry | 2016

CONSUMER DEBT STRESS, CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD DEBT, AND THE GREAT RECESSION: DEBT STRESS AND THE GREAT RECESSION

Lucia F. Dunn; Ida A. Mirzaie

This research examines psychological debt stress and changes in household debt holdings for consumers during the Great Recession using data from a monthly national U.S. household survey covering the period 2006 through 2012. Debt stress measures in the population rose by over 50% at the bottom of the recession. Determining relative stress for eight different types of household debt, we find that noncollateralized debts are more stressful than collateralized debt and that during the recession the composition of debt shifted away from collateralized debt and toward noncollateralized. Our empirical results show that women and Hispanics experienced higher measured levels of stress.


Global Economic Review | 2011

Consumption, Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

Abstract The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.


Review of Middle East Economics and Finance | 2017

Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

Abstract This paper studies determinants of inflation in Iran. The buildup of international reserves has accelerated during the episode of higher oil price. The associated increase in government spending has limited contribution to capacity building and pronounced inflationary pressures, which accelerated at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, and eased at the end of the war in 1988. Accommodating monetary stance has proven to be an important determinant of inflation, both in the long and in the short-runs. In the long-run, depreciation of the rial increases the cost of intermediate goods, increasing inflationary pressures with limited significant effect on output. In contrast, depreciation could boost competitiveness of non-energy exports, in support of higher demand and output growth in the short-run. For policy implications, priorities going forward should be in place to direct both public and private resources toward relaxing binding capacity constraints, capitalizing on oil resources in Iran and the prospects of the positive implications of lifting sanctions in the context of the recent nuclear agreement between Iran and the G5+1 countries.


Economic Inquiry | 2006

Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked To Manufacturing

Lucia F. Dunn; Ida A. Mirzaie


Eastern Economic Journal | 2007

Sectoral Employment, Wages and The Exchange Rate: Evidence From The U.S.

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Ida A. Mirzaie; Ilir Miteza


Economic Inquiry | 2014

Consumer Debt Stress, Changes in Household Debt, and the Great Recession

Lucia F. Dunn; Ida A. Mirzaie


The World Economy | 2009

Are MENA Countries Reaping the Benefits of Inflows

Magda Kandil; Ida A. Mirzaie

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Magda Kandil

International Monetary Fund

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Ilir Miteza

University of Michigan

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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee

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