Ignatius G. Rigor

Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years

We review the surface air temperature record of the past 150 years, considering the homogeneity of the basic data and the standard errors of estimation of the average hemispheric and global estimates. We present global fields of surface temperature change over the two 20-year periods of greatest warming this century, 1925–1944 and 1978–1997. Over these periods, global temperatures rose by 0.37° and 0.32°C, respectively. The twentieth-century warming has been accompanied by a decrease in those areas of the world affected by exceptionally cool temperatures and to a lesser extent by increases in areas affected by exceptionally warm temperatures. In recent decades there have been much greater increases in night minimum temperatures than in day maximum temperatures, so that over 1950–1993 the diurnal temperature range has decreased by 0.08°C per decade. We discuss the recent divergence of surface and satellite temperature measurements of the lower troposphere and consider the last 150 years in the context of the last millennium. We then provide a globally complete absolute surface air temperature climatology on a 1° × 1° grid. This is primarily based on data for 1961–1990. Extensive interpolation had to be undertaken over both polar regions and in a few other regions where basic data are scarce, but we believe the climatology is the most consistent and reliable of absolute surface air temperature conditions over the world. The climatology indicates that the annual average surface temperature of the world is 14.0°C (14.6°C in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and 13.4°C for the Southern Hemisphere). The annual cycle of global mean temperatures follows that of the land-dominated NH, with a maximum in July of 15.9°C and a minimum in January of 12.2°C.

Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation

Abstract Data collected by the International Arctic Buoy Programme from 1979 to 1998 are analyzed to obtain statistics of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea ice motion (SIM). The annual and seasonal mean fields agree with those obtained in previous studies of Arctic climatology. The data show a 3-hPa decrease in decadal mean SLP over the central Arctic Ocean between 1979–88 and 1989–98. This decrease in SLP drives a cyclonic trend in SIM, which resembles the structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Regression maps of SIM during the wintertime (January–March) AO index show 1) an increase in ice advection away from the coast of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, which should have the effect of producing more new thin ice in the coastal flaw leads; 2) a decrease in ice advection from the western Arctic into the eastern Arctic; and 3) a slight increase in ice advection out of the Arctic through Fram Strait. Taken together, these changes suggest that at least part of the thinning of sea ice recently observed ov...

Variations in Surface Air Temperature Observations in the Arctic, 1979-97

The statistics of surface air temperature observations obtained from buoys, manned drifting stations, and meteorological land stations in the Arctic during 1979‐97 are analyzed. Although the basic statistics agree with what has been published in various climatologies, the seasonal correlation length scales between the observations are shorter than the annual correlation length scales, especially during summer when the inhomogeneity between the ice-covered ocean and the land is most apparent. During autumn, winter, and spring, the monthly mean correlation length scales are approximately constant at about 1000 km; during summer, the length scales are much shorter, that is, as low as 300 km. These revised scales are particularly important in the optimal interpolation of data on surface air temperature (SAT) and are used in the analysis of an improved SAT dataset called International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES). Compared to observations from land stations and the Russian North Pole drift stations, the IABP/POLES dataset has higher correlations and lower rms errors than previous SAT fields and provides better temperature estimates, especially during summer in the marginal ice zones. In addition, the revised correlation length scales allow data taken at interior land stations to be included in the optimal interpretation analysis without introducing land biases to grid points over the ocean. The new analysis provides 12-h fields of air temperatures on a 100-km rectangular grid for all land and ocean areas of the Arctic region for the years 1979‐97. The IABP/POLES dataset is then used to study spatial and temporal variations in SAT. This dataset shows that on average melt begins in the marginal seas by the first week of June and advances rapidly over the Arctic Ocean, reaching the pole by 19 June, 2 weeks later. Freeze begins at the pole on 16 August, and the freeze isotherm advances more slowly than the melt isotherm. Freeze returns to the marginal seas a month later than at the pole, on 21 September. Near the North Pole, the melt season length is about 58 days, while near the margin, the melt season is about 100 days. A trend of 118C (decade)21 is found during winter in the eastern Arctic Ocean, but a trend of 218C (decade)21 is found in the western Arctic Ocean. During spring, almost the entire Arctic shows significant warming trends. In the eastern Arctic Ocean this warming is as much as 28C (decade)21. The spring warming is associated with a trend toward a lengthening of the melt season in the eastern Arctic. The western Arctic, however, shows a slight shortening of the melt season. These changes in surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean are related to the Arctic Oscillation, which accounts for more than half of the surface air temperature trends over Alaska, Eurasia, and the eastern Arctic Ocean but less than half in the western Arctic Ocean.

Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice

[1] The extent of Arctic perennial sea ice, the year-round ice cover, was significantly reduced between March 2005 and March 2007 by 1.08 x 10 6 km 2 , a 23% loss from 4.69 × 10 6 km 2 to 3.61 × 10 6 km 2 , as observed by the QuikSCAT/SeaWinds satellite scatterometer (QSCAT). Moreover, the buoy-based Drift-Age Model (DM) provided long-term trends in Arctic sea-ice age since the 1950s. Perennial-ice extent loss in March within the DM domain was noticeable after the 1960s, and the loss became more rapid in the 2000s when QSCAT observations were available to verify the model results. QSCAT data also revealed mechanisms contributing to the perennial-ice extent loss: ice compression toward the western Arctic, ice loading into the Transpolar Drift (TD) together with an acceleration of the TD carrying excessive ice out of Fram Strait, and ice export to Baffin Bay. Dynamic and thermodynamic effects appear to be combining to expedite the loss of perennial sea ice.

Snow Depth on Arctic Sea Ice

Snow depth and density were measured at Soviet drifting stations on multiyear Arctic sea ice. Measurements were made daily at fixed stakes at the weather station and once- or thrice-monthly at 10-m intervals on a line beginning about 500 m from the station buildings and extending outward an additional 500 or 1000 m. There were 31 stations, with lifetimes of 1‐7 yr. Analyses are performed here for the 37 years 1954‐91, during which time at least one station was always reporting. Snow depth at the stakes was sometimes higher than on the lines, and sometimes lower, but no systematic trend of snow depth was detected as a function of distance from the station along the 1000-m lines that would indicate an influence of the station. To determine the seasonal progression of snow depth for each year at each station, priority was given to snow lines if available; otherwise the fixed stakes were used, with an offset applied if necessary. The ice is mostly free of snow during August. Snow accumulates rapidly in September and October, moderately in November, very slowly in December and January, then moderately again from February to May. This pattern is exaggerated in the Greenland‐Ellesmere sector, which shows almost no net accumulation from November to March. The Chukchi region shows a steadier accumulation throughout the autumn, winter, and spring. The average snow depth of the multiyear ice region reaches a maximum of 34 cm (11 g cm22) in May. The deepest snow is just north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, peaking in early June at more than 40 cm, when the snow is already melting north of Siberia and Alaska. The average snow density increases with time throughout the snow accumulation season, averaging 300 kg m23, with little geographical variation. Usually only two stations were in operation in any particular year, so there is insufficient information to obtain the geographical pattern of interannual variations. Therefore, to represent the geographical and seasonal variation of snow depth, a two-dimensional quadratic function is fitted to all data for a particular month, irrespective of year. Interannual anomalies for each month of each year are obtained relative to the long-term mean snow depth for the geographical location of the station operating in that particular year. The computed interannual variability (IAV) of snow depth in May is 6 cm, but this is larger than the true IAV because of inadequate geographical sampling. Weak negative trends of snow depth are found for all months. The largest trend is for May, the month of maximum snow depth, a decrease of 8 cm over 37 yr, apparently due to a reduction in accumulation-season snowfall.

Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomalyof the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High—a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure—which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

Reconstructing the origin and trajectory of drifting Arctic sea ice

Recent studies have indicated that drifting Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the redistribution of sediments and contaminants. Here we present a method to reconstruct the back- ward trajectory of sea ice from its sampling location in the Eurasian Arctic to its possible site of ori- gin on the shelf, based on historical drift data from the International Arctic Buoy Program. This method is verified by showing that origins derived from the backward trajectories are generally con- sistent with other indicators, such as comparison of the predicted backward trajectories with known buoy drifts and matching the clay mineralogy of sediments sampled from the sea ice with that of the seafloor in the predicted shelf source regions. The trajectories are then used to identify regions where sediment-laden ice is exported to the Transpolar Drift Stream: from the New Siberian Islands and the Central Kara Plateau. Calculation of forward trajectories shows that the Kara Sea is a major contributor of ice to the Barents Sea and the southern limb of the Transpolar Drift Stream.

Sea ice response to an extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during winter 2009/2010

[3] The long‐term annual mean Arctic SLP field features an anticyclone centered over the northern Beaufort Sea, known as the Beaufort Sea High (BSH), and a trough of low pressure extending from the Icelandic Low northeastward into the Kara Sea. Associated surface winds drive the clockwise Beaufort Gyre ice motion, and the Transpolar Drift Stream (TDS), representing ice motion from the Siberian coast across the Arctic and then into the North Atlantic through Fram Strait. When the winter AO is in its positive mode, SLP over the Icelandic Low region and extending into the Arctic is anomalously low and the BSH is weak, promoting a cyclonic (counter‐clockwise) sea ice circulation anomaly. This is expressed as decreased ice transport from the Beaufort Sea westward across the dateline into the Chukchi Sea, increased ice transport out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, and increased transport of ice away from the Siberian coast, leaving open water areas that foster new iceformation[Rigoretal.,2002].Bypromotingmorethinice in spring, the positive AO sets the stage for negative summer ice extent anomalies. Conversely, during a negative AO phase, SLP is above normal over the Arctic, most prominent in the vicinity of the Icelandic Low. Ice motion tends to have an anticyclonic (clockwise) anomaly. Ice flow through Fram Strait is reduced, and the Beaufort Gyre is stronger, leading to enhanced ice transport from the western to the eastern Arctic where ice thickens by ridging and rafting against the Siberian coast. The stronger Beaufort Gyre also sequesters and thickens ice in the Canada Basin. Collectively, these processes favor survival of sea ice through summer.

A freshwater jet on the east Greenland shelf

In August 1997, RRS Discovery cruise 230 (World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) section A25) ran a hydrographic section into Cape Farewell on the southern tip of Greenland. The closest approach to the shore was 2 nm in a water depth of 160 m over the east Greenland shelf. Analysis of the hydrographic data (conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD), vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler, and thermosalinograph) has revealed a current flowing southwestward, ~15 km wide, 100 m deep, and centered ~10 km offshore. We believe it to be driven by meltwater runoff from Greenland. This feature, which we call the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC), carries a little less than 1 Sv (106 m3 s-1) with peak current speeds of ~1 m s-1 at the surface. The center of the EGCC lies on a salinity front with maximum salinity contrast ~4 practical salinity units (psu) between coast and shelf break and between surface and bottom. A spot value of freshwater transport is 0.06 Sv (1800 km3 yr-1), which is equivalent to ~30% of the Arctic freshwater gain. The presence of the EGCC and its continuity up the east Greenland coast as far as Denmark Strait is confirmed in satellite sea surface temperature images and surface drifter tracks. We estimate the sensitivity of its freshwater flux to changes in melt season mean surface air temperature to be >25% per 1°C.

Interdecadal changes in snow depth on Arctic sea ice

Snow plays a key role in the growth and decay of Arctic sea ice. In winter, it insulates sea ice from cold air temperatures, slowing sea ice growth. From spring to summer, the albedo of snow determines how much insolation is absorbed by the sea ice and underlying ocean, impacting ice melt processes. Knowledge of the contemporary snow depth distribution is essential for estimating sea ice thickness and volume, and for understanding and modeling sea ice thermodynamics in the changing Arctic. This study assesses spring snow depth distribution on Arctic sea ice using airborne radar observations from Operation IceBridge for 2009–2013. Data were validated using coordinated in situ measurements taken in March 2012 during the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) field campaign. We find a correlation of 0.59 and root-mean-square error of 5.8 cm between the airborne and in situ data. Using this relationship and IceBridge snow thickness products, we compared the recent results with data from the 1937, 1954–1991 Soviet drifting ice stations. The comparison shows thinning of the snowpack, from 35.1 ± 9.4 to 22.2 ± 1.9 cm in the western Arctic, and from 32.8 ± 9.4 to 14.5 ± 1.9 cm in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. These changes suggest a snow depth decline of 37 ± 29% in the western Arctic and 56 ± 33% in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Thinning is negatively correlated with the delayed onset of sea ice freezeup during autumn.