Ihor Kozak

Cultural landscap’s changes of Solyna commune

The main aim of the present work was to analyze the dynamics of settlements from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century in Solyna commune (in polish Solina), in Lesko district, Podkarpackie voivodeship in Eastern Poland. There was analyzed the Solyna commune in terms of the changes of settlements and applied maps together with published historical data for the analysis of changes in its structure. The first was the historical map, in other words the tactical map of «WIG- Military Institute of Geography». Next maps from the «WMS-Web Map Service, Geoportal» were analyzed. Changes in the number of villages and households population dynamics for Greek-catholics, «Latynnykys» and Jews for the year 1785 were evaluated applying ArcGIS 10.3 program. Ukrainian ones were evaluated using ArcGIS program in comparison with the number of Poles and Jews for the year 1939. Ethnic and religious composition from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century and the character of settlements distribution in Solyna commune was evaluated based on the study of spatial distribution of settlements with the use of Spatial Statistics (Spatial Autocorrelation Global Morans test, Standard Deviational Ellipse and Mean Centre). In 1785 there were 80,55% of Greek-catholics and in 1939 there were 89,82% of Ukrainians in Solyna commune. There was confirmed a similar configuration of Standard Deviation Ellipse and Mean Center for Greek-catholic for the year 1785 and Ukrainians for the year 1939 in Solyna commune. The scale and results of such changes are essential for future research, mainly in terms of the change of traditional village system infrastructure and culture.

A prognosis for the impact of climate change on beech stand dynamics in the Polish and Ukrainian Roztoche region

Abstract This study has been carried out in the Polish Roztoczański National Park and the Ukrainian Ravs’ke Roztochia Regional Landscape Park, both of which are part of the Roztoche region. In each of these two locations, representative study plots were established in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands occupying sites with similar environmental conditions. A longterm prognosis for the dynamics of the chosen beech stands were generated using the computer model FORKOME. The model was used to forecast stand developments for four climatic scenarios (warm-humid, warm-dry, cold-humid, cold-dry) covering a time span of 500 years. Our simulation results indicate that in the control scenario, beech stands were dominating and cyclical changes between beech and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) may occur. In the scenarios with assumed climate warming, a decline of fir biomass and an increase of beech biomass, as compared to the control conditions, was noticed. In the scenario with assumed climate cooling, fir biomass increased for the duration of the investigated time span. To conclude, the application of the FORKOME model was found to be a useful tool for analyzing potential scenarios of long-term dynamics of beech stands in the Roztoche region in Poland and Ukraine.

Analysis of settlements dynamics within Krampna commune using GIS

The main aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of settlements from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century in Krampna commune (Krępna), in Jasło district, Podkarpatske voivodeship in Eastern Poland. Krampna commune was analyzed in terms of the changes of settlements, applying maps together with published historical data for the analysis of changes in its structure. Firstly, the tactical map of «WIGMilitary Institute of Geography» was applied. Secondly, maps from the “WMS-Web Map Service, Geoportal” were analyzed. Changes in the number of villages and households population dynamics for Greek Catholics, Latins and Jews for the year 1785 were evaluated applying ArcGIS 10.3 program. Ukrainian ones were evaluated using ArcGIS 10.3 program in comparison with the number of Poles and Jews for the year 1939. Religious and ethnic composition from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century and the character of settlements distribution in Krampna commune was evaluated based on the study of spatial distribution of settlements with the use of Spatial Statistics (Spatial Autocorrelation Global Moran’s test, Standard Deviational Ellipse and Mean Centre). In 1785 there were 95,69% of Greek Catholics and in 1939 there were 96,18% of Ukrainians in Krampna commune. There was confirmed a similar configuration of Standard Deviation Ellipse and Mean Center for Greek Catholics who were Ukrainians for the year 1785 and Ukrainians for the year 1939 in Krampna commune. The scale and results of such changes are essential for future research, mainly in terms of the change of traditional village system infrastructure and culture.

Forkome Model Application for Prognosis of Forest Fires

Abstract This paper presents the perspectives of FORKOME model use regarding the simulation of fre and its impact on forest stands. The calculation of probability of forest fres and predicting its effect on forest stands are analysed as well. The model is supposed to examine the impact of fres on pine stands, which ultimately leads to a decline in the viability of those trees. As a result of fre activity there were determined the following categories of trees - undamaged, slightly damaged, heavily damaged and destroyed. Moreover, by conducting simulations on forests with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), there were demonstrated the possibilities of FORKOME model practical application. Simulation shows the possibility of the model to predict the fre damage in a particular year and the perspective of a stand development, taking into account climate change and its influence on the frequency of fres. Prospects and directions of further developments of the model concerning simulation of fre in forest stands were discussed as well.

Simulation of Scots pine stand dynamics under climate change conditions in the Polish and Ukrainian parts of Roztocze

Abstract The study was conducted in the Polish (Roztoczanski National Park) and Ukrainian (Rava-Rus’ka Landscape Reserve and Yavorivskyi National Park) parts of the Roztocze region. In each of these locations three research areas were established in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands under similar ecological conditions. The purpose of this study was to carry out a survey of possible scenarios for pine stand dynamics in the Polish and Ukrainian parts of Roztocze using the FORKOME model. A control scenario was compared with four other climate change scenarios (warm dry and warm humid; cold dry and cold humid) for a period of covering the next 100 years. Using the control scenario, the FORKOME model predicted that for the next 100 years pine stands will dominate in terms of biomass and number of trees. The warm-dry and warm-humid climate scenarios resulted in slightly reduced biomass of pine stands. However pine would still maintain its dominance, although with a noticeable increase in beech and fir biomass. Nevertheless, in term of the number of trees during the second half of the simulation, it is beech and fir that dominate stand 1 in Roztoczanski National Park. Under the climate cooling scenario (cold dry and cold humid), the biomass of pine and spruce would increase during the next 100 years. Pine trees that would dominate in terms of their numbers, although the number of spruce individuals also tends to increase. The results presented in the paper indicate that the FORKOME model is very useful when investigating different climate changes scenarios in the Roztocze region.