Iichiro Uesugi

Lending Pro-Cyclicality and Macro-Prudential Policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV Ratios

Using a unique micro dataset compiled from the real estate registry in Japan, we examine more than 400,000 loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for business loans to draw implications for the efficacy of caps on LTV ratios as a macro-prudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality through the business cycle. We also find that borrowers obtaining high-LTV loans performed no worse ex-post than those with lower LTV loans. Our findings imply that a fixed cap on LTV ratios might not only be ineffective in curbing loan volume in boom periods but also inhibit well-performing firms from borrowing.

Interfirm Relationships and Trade Credit in Japan: Evidence from Micro-Data

In this paper, we describe the current status of interfirm relationships in Japan with a special emphasis on the trade credit between firms. To do so, we first need to clarify what kind of firms in Japan we report on. In this section, we describe the source of our data, and how we chose the sample firms that are used for the analysis in the subsequent sections. We also explain the methodology that we use when we report our findings in the sections below.

Natural Disaster and Natural Selection

In this paper, we investigate whether natural selection works for firm exit after a massive natural disaster. By using a unique data set of more than 84,000 firms after the Tohoku Earthquake, we examined the impact of firm efficiency on firm bankruptcy both inside and outside of the earthquake-affected areas. We find that more efficient firms are less likely to go bankrupt both inside and outside of the affected areas, which indicates the existence of natural selection. However, we also find that firms located inside the earthquake-affected areas are less likely to go bankrupt than those located outside of the areas. We also applied the same methodology to the case of the Kobe Earthquake, and find qualitatively similar results.

Interfirm Networks in Manufacturing Industry Agglomerations in Japan: Evidence from Survey Data

This chapter focuses on interfirm networks in Japan’s major manufacturing agglomerations and conducts fact-finding analyses on the following three issues: (1) the nature of interfirm transaction relationships, including developments in such relationships over time; (2) firms’ participation in network activities other than supplier-customer transactions; and (3) interactions between interfirm transaction relationships and relationships of other types. Based on the results of a unique firm-level survey completed by more than 1800 firms in December 2009, it is found, first, that the number of interfirm transaction relationships, especially those involving smaller firms, has declined over the past ten years. Second, the survey indicates that, apart from transaction relationships, many firms participated in group activities in individual industry associations and local chambers of commerce, indicating that firms tend to maintain relationships with firms similar to themselves. Third, it is found that bank lending attitudes are positively associated with the extent to which a firm is interconnected with other local firms, indicating that interfirm and firm-bank relationships are complementary.

Strong customer/supplier relationships: A key to enterprise growth in Japan

Based on econometric analysis of data drawn from a large business database and on interviews with eight HGSMEs, this chapter examines the interactions between firms’ business relationships (with both suppliers and customers) and growth performance (in terms of sales) in Japan. The authors found that three dimensions in transaction relationships have a positive effect on enterprise growth: the number of relationships; relationships with large or fast-growing firms; and geographic proximity to suppliers and customers. Both, the results from the econometric analysis and the findings derived from the case studies were consistent.