Ilan Rubinfeld

Are the frail destined to fail? Frailty index as predictor of surgical morbidity and mortality in the elderly.

BACKGROUND America’s aging population has led to an increase in the number of elderly patients necessitating emergency general surgery. Previous studies have demonstrated that increased frailty is a predictor of outcomes in medicine and surgical patients. We hypothesized that use of a modification of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index would be a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients older than 60 years undergoing emergency general surgery. METHODS Data were obtained from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Files database in compliance with the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Data Use Agreement. We selected all emergency cases in patients older than 60 years performed by general surgeons from 2005 to 2009. The effect of increasing frailty on multiple outcomes including wound infection, wound occurrence, any infection, any occurrence, and mortality was then evaluated. RESULTS Total sample size was 35,334 patients. As the modified frailty index increased, associated increases occurred in wound infection, wound occurrence, any infection, any occurrence, and mortality. Logistic regression of multiple variables demonstrated that the frailty index was associated with increased mortality with an odds ratio of 11.70 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION Frailty index is an important predictive variable in emergency general surgery patients older than 60 years. The modified frailty index can be used to evaluate risk of both morbidity and mortality in these patients. Frailty index will be a valuable preoperative risk assessment tool for the acute care surgeon. (J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2012;72: 1526–1531. Copyright

Simplified Frailty Index to Predict Adverse Outcomes and Mortality in Vascular Surgery Patients

BACKGROUND Frailty has been established as an important predictor of health-care outcomes. We hypothesized that the use of a modified frailty index would be a predictor of mortality and adverse occurrences in vascular surgery patients. METHODS Under the data use agreement of the American College of Surgeons, and with institutional review board (IRB) approval, the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Participant Utilization File was accessed for the years 2005-2008 for inpatient vascular surgery patients. Using the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index (FI), 11 variables were matched to the NSQIP database. An increase in FI implies increased frailty. The outcomes assessed were mortality, wound infection, and any occurrence. We then compared the effect of FI, age, functional status, relative value units (RVU), American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, and wound status on mortality. Statistical analysis was done using chi-square analysis and stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS A total of 67,308 patients were identified in the database, 3913 wound occurrences, 6691 infections, 12,847 occurrences of all kinds, and 2800 deaths. As the FI increased, postoperative wound infection, all occurrences, and mortality increased (P < 0.001). Stepwise logistic regression using the FI with the NSQIP variables of age, work RVU, ASA class, wound classification, emergency status, and functional status showed FI to have the highest odds ratio (OR) for mortality (OR = 2.058, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS A simplified FI can be obtained by easily identifiable patient characteristics, allowing for accurate prediction of postoperative morbidity and mortality in the vascular surgery population.

Frailty as a predictor of morbidity and mortality in inpatient head and neck surgery.

IMPORTANCE The increasing number of elderly and comorbid patients undergoing surgical procedures raises interest in better identifying patients at increased risk of morbidity and mortality, independent of age. Frailty has been identified as a predictor of surgical complications. OBJECTIVE To establish the implications of frailty as a predictor of morbidity and mortality in inpatient otolaryngologic operations. DESIGN Retrospective review of medical records. SETTING National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) participating hospitals. PATIENTS NSQIP participant use files were used to identify 6727 inpatients who underwent operations performed by surgeons specializing in otolaryngology between 2005 and 2010. The study sample was 50.3% male and 10.2% African American, with a mean (range) age of 54.7 (16-90) years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES A previously described modified frailty index (mFI) was calculated on the basis of NSQIP variables. The effect of increasing frailty on morbidity and mortality was evaluated using univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare mFI with age, ASA, and wound classification. RESULTS The mean (range) mFI was 0.07 (0-0.73). As the mFI increased from 0 (no frailty-associated variables) to 0.45 (5 of 11) or higher, mortality risk increased from 0.2% to 11.9%. The risk of Clavien-Dindo grade IV complications increased from 1.2% to 26.2%. The risk of all complications increased from 9.5% to 40.5%. All results were significant at P < .001. In a multivariate logistic regression model to predict mortality or serious complication, mFI became the dominant significant predictor. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The mFI is significantly associated with morbidity and mortality in this retrospective survey. Additional study with prospective analysis and external validation is needed. The mFI may provide an improved understanding of preoperative risk, which would facilitate perioperative optimization, risk stratification, and counseling related to outcomes.

Predictors of critical care-related complications in colectomy patients using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program: exploring frailty and aggressive laparoscopic approaches.

BACKGROUND: Colectomy patients experience a broad set of adverse outcomes. Complications requiring critical care support are common in this group. We hypothesized that as frailty increases, the risk of Clavien class IV and V complications will increase in colectomy patients. METHODS: Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) participant use files for 2005–2009, we identified patients who underwent laparoscopic and open colectomies by Current Procedural Terminology code. Using the Clavien classification for postoperative complications, we identified NSQIP data points most consistent with Clavien class IV requiring intensive care unit (ICU) care or class V complications (death). We used a modified frailty index with 11 variables based on mapping the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index and existing NSQIP variables. Logistic regression was performed to acuity adjust the findings. RESULTS: A total of 58,448 colectomies were identified. As frailty index increased from 0 to 0.55, the proportion of those experiencing Clavien class IV or V complications increased from 3.2% at baseline to 56.3%. Variables found to be significant by logistic regression (odds ratio) were frailty index (14.4; p = 0.001), open procedure (2.35; p < 0.001), and American Society of Anesthesiologists class 4 (3.2; p = 0.038) or 5 (7.1; p = 0.001) while emergency operation and wound classification 3 or 4 were not. CONCLUSIONS: Complications requiring ICU care represent a significant morbidity in the colectomy patient population. Frailty index seems to be an important predictor of ICU-level complications and death, and laparoscopy seems to be protective. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II, prognostic.

Adverse effects of preoperative steroid use on surgical outcomes

BACKGROUND Preoperative steroid use has been associated with increased postoperative complications. We sought to establish these risks using data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). METHODS NSQIP public use files from 2005 to 2008 were analyzed for preoperative steroid use and postoperative adverse events. RESULTS Of 635,265 patients identified, 20,434 (3.2%) used steroids preoperatively. Superficial surgical site infections (SSI) increased from 2.9% to 5% using steroids (odds ratio, 1.724). Deep SSIs increased from .8% to 1.8% (odds ratio, 2.353). Organ/space SSIs and dehiscence increased 2 to 3-fold with steroid use (odds ratios, 2.469 and 3.338, respectively). Mortality increased almost 4-fold (1.6% to 6.0%; odds ratio, 3.920). All results were significant (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Previous concerns related to surgical risks in patients on chronic steroid regimens appear valid. These results may assist in counselling patients regarding the increased risk of surgery. They may also help the surgeon plan and modify the procedure if possible.

A modified frailty index to assess morbidity and mortality after lobectomy.

BACKGROUND Frailty has yet to be explored as a risk factor for thoracic surgery. We hypothesized that our modified frailty index (mFI) may be a predictor of morbidity and mortality following lobectomy. MATERIALS National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) participant use files were reviewed (2005-2010). Patients undergoing lobectomy were identified based on Current Procedural Terminology code 32480. We used an mFI with 11 variables, based on mapping the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index to the NSQIP comorbidities. Data were analyzed using χ(2) test, independent sample t-test, Jonckheere-Terpstra test, and logistic regression. RESULTS Of 1940 open lobectomy patients identified, morbidity and mortality uniformly increased as the mFI increased; 14.9% of patients (75/504) with mFI of 0 had at least one complication, compared with 32% of patients (91/284) with mFI of 0.27 (P < 0.001). An mFI of 0 was associated with a mortality rate of 1% (5/504), compared with 5.6% (16/284) for mFI of 0.27 (P < 0001). Failure to wean from the ventilator, reintubation, surgical site infections, pneumonia, and Clavien 4 and above complications occurred in 1.8% (9/504), 2.6% (13/504), 2.2% (11/504), 5.4% (27/504), and 4.2% (21/504), respectively, in patients with an mFI of 0, compared with 7.4% (21/284), 7% (22/284), 3.2% (9/284), 10.9% (31/284), and 14.4% (41/284), respectively, in patients with mFI of 0.27. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates that the mFI may identify patients at higher risk for morbidity and mortality post-lobectomy. With the aging population, preoperative selection is important in minimizing morbidity and mortality and improving risk stratification for informed decision-making.

Relationship Between Hospital Volume, System Clinical Resources, and Mortality in Pancreatic Resection

BACKGROUND The relationship between hospital volume and perioperative mortality in pancreaticoduodenectomy has been well established. We studied whether associations exist between hospital volume and hospital clinical resources and between both of these factors to mortality to help explain this relationship. STUDY DESIGN This two-part study reviewed publicly available hospital information from the Leapfrog Group, HealthGrades, and hospital Web sites. Hospitals were evaluated for Leapfrog ICU staffing criteria and Safe Practice Score; HealthGrades five-star rating for complex gastrointestinal procedures and operations; and presence of a general surgery residency, gastroenterology fellowship, and interventional radiology. Evaluation used trend analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. The second part determined the mortality rate for pancreaticoduodenectomy using inpatient mortality data from the National Inpatient Sample and Leapfrog. Hospitals were categorized by low volume (< or = 10/year), high volume (> or = 11/year), strong clinical support (presence of all support factors), and weak clinical support (absence of any factor). Data were correlated by number of pancreatic resections per hospital, hospital system clinical resources, and operative mortality. RESULTS As hospital volume increased, statistically significant increases occurred in the frequency of hospitals meeting Leapfrog ICU staffing criteria (p < 0.0001), Leapfrog Safe Practice Score (p = 0.0004), HealthGrades 5-star rating (p < 0.00001), general surgery residency (p < 0.00001), gastroenterology fellowship (p < 0.00001), and interventional radiology services (p < 0.00001). No significant relationships were found between resection volume and any one of the clinical support factors and perioperative death. Presence of strong clinical support was associated with lower mortality (odds ratio = 0.32; p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS System clinical resources were more influential in operative mortality for pancreatic resection. This might help explain why high-volume hospitals, low-volume surgeons in high-volume institutions, and some lower-volume hospitals with excellent clinical resources have lower perioperative mortality rates for pancreatic resection.

Use of the modified frailty index to predict 30-day morbidity and mortality from spine surgery

OBJECTIVE Limited tools exist to stratify perioperative risk in patients undergoing spinal procedures. The modified frailty index (mFI) based on the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index (CSHA-FI), constructed from standard demographic variables, has been applied to various other surgical populations for risk stratification. The authors hypothesized that it would be predictive of postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing spine surgery. METHODS The 2006-2010 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data set was accessed for patients undergoing spine surgeries based on Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Sixteen preoperative clinical NSQIP variables were matched to 11 CSHA-FI variables (changes in daily activities, gastrointestinal problems, respiratory problems, clouding or delirium, hypertension, coronary artery and peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, and so on). The outcomes assessed were 30-day occurrences of adverse events. These were then summarized in groups: any infection, wound-related complication, Clavien IV complications (life-threatening, requiring ICU admission), and mortality. RESULTS A total of 18,294 patients were identified. In 8.1% of patients with an mFI of 0 there was at least one morbid complication, compared with 24.3% of patients with an mFI of ≥ 0.27 (p < 0.001). An mFI of 0 was associated with a mortality rate of 0.1%, compared with 2.3% for an mFI of ≥ 0.27 (p < 0.001). Patients with an mFI of 0 had a 1.7% rate of surgical site infections and a 0.8% rate of Clavien IV complications, whereas patients with an mFI of ≥ 0.27 had rates of 4.1% and 7.1% for surgical site infections and Clavien IV complications, respectively (p < 0.001 for both). Multivariate analysis showed that the preoperative mFI and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification of ≥ III had a significantly increased risk of leading to Clavien IV complications and death. CONCLUSIONS A higher mFI was associated with a higher risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality, providing an additional tool to improve perioperative risk stratification.

Hyperbilirubinemia: a risk factor for infection in the surgical intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND Hyperbilirubinemia in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is common. We hypothesized that hyperbilirubinemia in the surgical ICU predisposes patients to infection. METHODS Patients with bilirubin < or = 3 mg/dL were compared to patients with bilirubin > 3 mg/dL. We then compared the low bilirubin patients to high bilirubin patients who developed infection after their hyperbilirubinemia. RESULTS There were 1,620 infections in 5,712 patients with low bilirubin (28%), compared with 284 in 409 patients in the high bilirubin group (69%, P < .001). After removing the patients in whom hyperbilirubinemia developed after infection, we found infection in 156 of 281 remaining patients (56%, P < .001). This group had a 3-fold increased risk of infection compared with low bilirubin (odds ratio [OR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.48-4.03, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS There is an increased susceptibility to infection among jaundiced surgical ICU (SICU) patients that persists even when sepsis-related hyperbilirubinemia patients are excluded.

Predictors of operative mortality following major lower extremity amputations using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program public use data

BACKGROUND The most definitive outcome data on lower extremity amputation (LEA) comes from the Veterans Administration (VA) system. Because of the unique nature of VA patients (more chronic disease, greater functional disability, and lower socioeconomic status), it is not clear these results can be generalized to the private sector. This study was undertaken to determine the short-term outcome of LEA in private sector patients and to define predictors of operative mortality. METHODS After Institutional Review Board approval and under the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program public use agreement, a data set of LEA based on Current Procedural Terminology coding was assembled for the years 2005 to 2008. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory values were compiled and linked to operative mortality. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using χ(2) test with odds ratios (ORs) and continuous variables with Student t-test. Predictive modeling was done using stepwise logistic regression. Data were analyzed in SPSS. RESULTS A total of 6839 patients underwent 4001 amputations below-knee (BK) and 2838 above-knee (AK) with a 9.1% operative mortality (6.5% BK, 12.7% AK; P < .001). Age >60 years (OR, 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-2.9), white race (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.4), and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification (II, 2.3% vs IV, 13.8%) were significant predictors of mortality. Preoperative functional status (20% for totally dependent vs 4.3% for independent), renal failure (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.2), and congestive heart failure (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.1-3.3) also predicted death. Postoperative complications associated with mortality included pneumonia (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 4.1-7.0), ventilator dependence (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 3.8-6.8), and need for transfusion (OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.0-6.7). Hispanic and African-American race (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.9 and OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-1), history of peripheral arterial disease (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.5-0.8), and smoking (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.4-0.7) were protective (all ORs had P values < .001). CONCLUSIONS The mortality of LEA in private sector patients remains high, with risk factors similar to those identified in previous studies of VA patients. These results should serve as a benchmark for future attempts to improve the outcome of LEA and serve to improve patient and family counseling.