Ilana Wainer

Onset and End of the Rainy Season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Onset and end of the rainy season in the Amazon Basin are examined for the period 1979‐96. The onset and end dates are determined by averaging daily rainfall data from many stations, and then constructing 5-day averages (pentads). Onset (end) is defined as the pentad in which rainfall exceeds (falls below) a given threshold, provided that average rainfall was well below (above) the threshold for several pentads preceding onset (end), and well above (below) the threshold for several pentads after onset (end). For the criteria chosen, the climatological onset progresses toward the southeast, arriving in mid-October, and then toward the mouth of the Amazon, arriving near the end of the year. The end dates are earliest in the southeast and progress toward the north, but withdrawal is slower than onset. The onset dates, however, are quite sensitive to changes in the threshold. If the threshold is doubled, for example, the sense of onset is reversed, with onset occurring toward the northwest. Changes in threshold do not change the direction of the progression of the end of the rainy season. The central Amazon shows the largest variation in the date of onset. In several years, onset in the southeast occurs before that in the central Amazon, but onset near the mouth is always latest. There is an unexpectedly low relationship between the length of the rainy season and total accumulation. Likewise, there is little relationship between the onset (and end) date and the total accumulation. Composites of outgoing longwave radiation and the low-level wind field show that in the central Amazon, onset is associated with an anomalous anticyclone and enhanced trade winds in the Atlantic. Near the mouth of the Amazon, however, onset is associated with large-scale northerly anomalies, and the zonal component of the trade winds is reduced. There is an apparent association between sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific and the pentads of onset and end of the rainy season in the northern and central Amazon, and near its mouth. The sense is that a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic result in a delayed onset and early withdrawal. Although the ←

Atlantic Climate Variability and Predictability: A CLIVAR Perspective

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

Investigation of the Brazil Current front variability from altimeter data

The southwestern Atlantic Ocean is characterized by the confluence of the Brazil and Malvinas Currents, which form very strong surface and subsurface fronts that can be detected from hydrographic and remote sensing observations. Three data sets, consisting of TOPEX/Poseidon-derived sea height anomalies, the climatologically derived depth of the 10°C isotherm, and reduced gravity, are used in conjunction with a two-layer dynamical ocean scheme to monitor the Brazil Current front and to investigate its variability during a 6 year period (1993–1998). Results reveal that the fronts exhibit motions that are larger zonally than meridionally, showing strong interannual variability with annual mean amplitudes that range from 1° to 6°. The annual and semiannual components account for more than 75% of the variability of the frontal oscillations. In the annual cycle the frontal motions appear to be related closely to fluctuations in the baroclinic transport of the Brazil Current and are only influenced by the Malvinas Current when the Brazil Current transport is very small.

Extratropical Atmosphere–Ocean Variability in CCSM3

Abstract Extratropical atmosphere–ocean variability over the Northern Hemisphere of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is examined and compared to observations. Results are presented for an extended control integration with a horizontal resolution of T85 (1.4°) for the atmosphere and land and ∼1° for the ocean and sea ice. Several atmospheric phenomena are investigated including storms, clouds, and patterns of variability, and their relationship to both tropical and extratropical SST anomalies. The mean storm track, the leading modes of storm track variability, and the relationship of the latter to tropical and midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are fairly well simulated in CCSM3. The positive correlations between extratropical SST and low-cloud anomalies in summer are reproduced by the model, but there are clear biases in the relationship between clouds and the near-surface meridional wind. The model accurately represents the circulation anomalies associated with the je...

South Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in the Climate System Model

Abstract Strong multidecadal variability is detected in a 300-yr integration of the NCAR Climate System Model in the South Atlantic region, through the application of two signal recognition techniques: the multitaper method and singular spectrum analysis. Significant oscillations of a 25–30-yr period are found in the sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and barotropic transport fields. A similar-scale signal is also captured in about one century-long observational records. A composite analysis of several model variables is performed based on the extremes of the sea surface temperature oscillation. The proposed mechanism for this basin-scale multidecadal signal involves changes in the intensity of the westerlies, associated with variability in the southward extension of the subtropical anticyclone, which drives changes in the ocean mass transport. This results in variability in the intensity of the Malvinas western boundary current and in the position of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone. Anomalo...

Annual cycle of the Brazil‐Malvinas confluence region in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model

The objective of this study is to compare the mean and seasonal variability of the circulation in the southwest Atlantic with observations. The results used in the comparison are from the last 200 years of a 300 year control integration of the Climate System Model (CSM). The area of study includes the confluence region between the subtropical and subpolar waters represented by the Brazil and Malvinas Currents. The seasonal variation of transport and its relationship to changes in the wind stress forcing and in the sea surface temperature are examined and compared to available oceanographic observations. This study shows that a coarse resolution climate model, such as the CSM, can successfully reproduce major characteristics of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence seasonally, although the mesoscale features involving recirculation and meander dynamics are not resolved. The CSM transport values in the region of 38°S are consistent with hydrographically derived values. The transport of the CSM Brazil Current is higher during austral summer and smaller during austral winter. Conversely, the Malvinas Current transport is weaker during austral summer and stronger during austral winter. This is also consistent with observations. The CSM seasonal cycle in transport associated with both the Brazil and Malvinas Currents and its meridional displacement is closely linked to the seasonal variations in the local wind stress curl. However, the displacement is much smaller in the model than in observations. The CSM results show that the latitudinal displacement of the 24°C and 17°C at the South American coast beween austral summer and winter is 20° and 12°, respectively. This is very similar to the displacement seen in observations.

A Comparison of Rainfall, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and Divergence over the Amazon Basin

Observed rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), divergence, and precipitation from the reanalysis project of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are compared over the Amazon Basin. The spatial pattern of the mean and the phase of the annual cycle generally compare well, except that the amplitude of the annual cycle of model precipitation is much smaller than observed. On 10‐30-day timescales, it is shown that averaging stations within a 58 radius is approximately equivalent to total wavenumber 20 (T20) spatial scale, although it is more important to have a high density of stations than an exact match of spatial scales. Ideally, there should be one station per 20 000 km 2. On 10‐30-day scales, observed rainfall is best correlated with OLR. Correlations between OLR and 150-mb divergence are larger than between observed rainfall and divergence or between rainfall and model precipitation. For example, if 10‐ 30-day filtered OLR and divergence are truncated at T20 and rainfall is averaged to include stations within a 58 radius, OLR is correlated with rainfall at about 20.6, OLR is correlated with divergence at about 20.35, and rainfall is correlated with divergence at about 0.2. At least part of the lack of correlation is due to inadequate spatial sampling of rainfall. Correlations improve with larger spatial scale. The major seasonal transitions from dry to rainy regimes are captured well by OLR but not by the model quantities. The mean diurnal cycle is represented reasonably by 150-mb divergence.

The relationship between the simulated climatic variability modes of the tropical Atlantic

Two main modes of climatic variability occur in the tropical Atlantic Ocean at inter-annual time-scales: the equatorial mode, similar to the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, and the meridional mode, or dipole-like mode, with no Pacific counterpart. The Atlantic equatorial mode is characterized by the occurrence of alternating warm and cold episodes at the equator, on the eastern side of the basin. These events are associated with abnormal variations in the zonal equatorial slope of the thermocline. The meridional mode is characterized by an inter-hemispheric gradient in the sea-surface temperature (SST). The mean position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) separates positive and negative SST signals. It was recently shown with observational indices that there is significant correlation between these two climatic modes of variability. This study goes one step further, by using a multi-year numerical simulation, where an oceanic general circulation model is forced by the 1979-1993 ECMWF reanalysis. Model computed indices representing the two main modes of variability compare well with observations. The two inter-annual modes of variability are shown to have the same physics as the annual variability does, which is related to the latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ. Furthermore, it is suggested that the ocean dynamics (as opposed to thermodynamic processes) is the principal cause of climate variability in the region.

Mid- to late-Holocene paleoceanographic changes on the southeastern Brazilian shelf based on grain size records

High-resolution grain size analyses of three AMS 14C-dated cores from the Southeastern Brazilian shelf provide a detailed record of mid- to late-Holocene environmental changes in the Southwestern Atlantic Margin.The cores exhibit millennial variability that we associate with the previously described southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) average latitudinal position over the South American continent during the Holocene climatic maximum. This generated changes in the wind-driven current system of the SW Atlantic margin and modified the grain size characteristics of the sediments deposited there. Centennial variations in the grain size are associated with a previously described late-Holocene enhancement of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude, which led to stronger NNE trade winds off eastern Brazil, favouring SW transport of sediments from the Paraiba do Sul River. This is recorded in a core from off Cabo Frio as a coarsening trend from 3000 cal. BP onwards. The ENSO enhancement also caused changes in precipitation and wind pattern in southern Brazil, allowing high discharge events and northward extensions of the low-saline water plume from Río de la Plata. We propose that this resulted in a net increase in northward alongshore transport of fine sediments, seen as a prominent fine-shift at 2000 cal. BP in a core from ~24°S on the Brazilian shelf. Wavelet- and spectral analysis of the sortable silt records show a significant ~1000-yr periodicity, which we attribute to solar forcing. If correct, this is one of the first indications of solar forcing of this timescale on the Southwestern Atlantic margin.

The Southern Ocean and Its Climate in CCSM4

AbstractThe new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth’s climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean–atmosphere–ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth’s climate and its variability.