İlhan Eroğlu

An evaluation of the effectiveness of an inflation targeting strategy in Turkey

Abstract In this research, the performance of inflation targeting strategy was analysed using the least square method (LSM) with the regression model for economic circumstances in Turkey. The results of this research can be summarised as follows: (1) Inflation targeting regime has a weak positive effect on inflation rate performance; (2) There is no significant relationship between inflation targeting regime and growth rate; (3) There is a positive but a weak relationship between inflation targeting regime and exchange rate performance; and (4) Inflation targeting regime has a strong positive effect on nominal interest rate performance. Thus, these results support the argument in the literature that ‘inflation targeting affects macroeconomic performance positively except for growth rate’. Thus, the post-2002 inflation-targeting regime, whether rule-based or occasional, has led to some improvements in other macroeconomic indicators, even though the primary aim of monetary policy instruments is to bring down the rate of inflation. Such stability-assuring policies enable investors to invest in a more trustable environment.

Identifying relationship between macroeconomic and fiscal policy variables for EU countries and Turkey

Abstract Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Debt Crisis has affected the world economy more than any other event. The member states of the European Monetary Union have deviated from the Maastricht Convergence Criteria (MCC) and this has led to the European Debt Crisis. We have used the 2000 Q1–2011 Q4 data and multivariate time series and panel data analysis for determining the relationship among the variables that establish the MCC comprising inflation, burden of net public debt, interest rate, budget deficit and exchange rate. The vector autoregression model/vector error correction model results have showed that there is an interaction between the variables. However, the panel cointegration results have confirmed increases in budget deficits and interest rates will increase the burden of net public debt and inflation will decrease it.

Economic Integration Problem of Turkey: An Evaluation about Shanghai Cooperation Organization within the Frame of Alternative Searches

When the economic developments analyzed after World War II, the economic integration movements, which include the liberalization of countries’ economic relations between each other, draw attention. In terms of world trade, globalization tendencies on one hand and regionalization tendencies on the other hand are being experienced. While global trade is shaped by Customs Tariffs and GATT, which propose the elimination of the limitations for customs tariffs and other trade limitations between countries, regional economic integrations are shaped differently between the countries that are geographically close to each other. Turkey has been found in the global and Original Research Article Eroglu et al.; BJEMT, 13(2): 1-18, 2016; Article no.BJEMT.24230 2 regional economic integration initiatives; and it’s in the negotiation phase for the EU membership, while the country is already a member of World Trade Organization (WTO), The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), The Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation (D-8), Organization of the Black Sea Economic Organization (BSEC), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The fact that Turkey’s attempts for global-regional economic and political integrations did not give the expected results has brought different searches. This study contains an evaluation of Turkey’s seek for new integrations as determinants of democracy in the scale of democratic index, which consists of some criteria like free and fair elections, pluralism, good governance, political participation, political culture and freedom, and an evaluation between EU and SCO alternatives. In the light of the assessment it has been concluded that SCO is not a suitable alternative for Turkey because of the fact that its priority is zone’s safety, it does not contain economic cooperation and its inefficient democratic foundation comparing with the EU. According to these facts, Turkey should continue with the EU membership negotiations and it should show necessary sensitivity for adjusting to Copenhagen political criteria which forms EU’s political criteria, and Maastricht economic criteria which forms EU’s economic criteria.

Can Social Capital Be the New Dynamics of Economic Development

Besides other capital types, social capital is such a kind of capital, which is revealed by the confidence level of the society and certain financial facts. This study questions whether the social capital could be new dynamics for the developments of the countries along with other types of capitals (real capital and human capital). According to the recent research it has been concluded that the social capital has some positive effects to decrease the asymmetric information; to gain trust, information sharing and competitive power; to increase the participation in political life and social organizations; to fix the distribution of income; and to accelerate the economic growth. As a result, considering the fact that the countries with high confidence level have high humanitarian growth and high income per capita, it has been concluded that social capital may create new dynamics of economic development.