Ilker Kaya

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well-being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.

Where Has All the Money Gone? Foreign Aid and the Composition of Government Spending

This paper examines the link between foreign aid and the composition of government spending in aid-recipient countries. Two questions are addressed: (i) does foreign aid crowd out government spending in aid-recipient countries, and (ii) does the degree of fungibility vary across different categories of aid? Using a panel dataset of 67 countries for 1972-2000 we find that at the aggregate level about 70 percent of total aid is fungible. We also find that aid targeted for public investment crowds out about 80-90 percent of domestic government spending on public investment. Aid does not affect private investment, but has a strong positive impact on household consumption. The results are also robust to checks for causality. These findings are significant, since more than two-thirds of all aid flows to developing countries are tied to public investment projects.

The impact of job security on job satisfaction in economic contractions versus expansions

Job security, often measured using the perceived risk of job loss in the near future, is a significant determinant of job satisfaction. We posit that the impact job security has on job satisfaction is not only a function of how likely it is that a worker loses a job but also how likely it is that a worker could find another. The effect this has on worker job satisfaction then is different depending on whether perceived job loss occurs (or not) when job openings are scarce or when job openings are plentiful. We use difference-in-differences analysis of the 1997 and 2008 waves from the National Study of the Changing Workforce to show that three measures of job security increase private sector worker job satisfaction, and reduce worker incentives to quit, more when job openings are relatively scarce (during contractions) than when job openings are relatively plentiful (during expansions). We find that our results are strongest among less-educated workers.

Development Aid to Agriculture and Economic Growth

The link between foreign aid and economic growth has been a controversial issue with no strong consensus so far. This paper argues that a possible reason why some studies may conclude that aid is ineffective in promoting economic growth might be that not all aid is given for development purposes (i.e. aid given for strategic considerations, humanitarian reasons or emergency relief). This study classifies foreign aid into four subcategories: agricultural aid, social infrastructure aid, investment aid, and non‐investment aid. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique on a Barro type growth regression with panel data from the aid recipient economies, this paper finds that when aid is directed to the agricultural sector of the developing countries, it is positively and significantly related to growth and can affect economic growth in the short run.

Job Insecurity and Job Satisfaction in the United States: The Case of Public Sector Union Workers

We measure the association between perceived job insecurity and job satisfaction in the United States and focus on public sector union workers. Job satisfaction decreases with perceived job insecurity among union workers in the public sector and primarily when tenure with an employer is high.

On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums

We examine the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates and country risk premiums for the Eurozone and six other industrial countries for 1999–2008. In so doing, we utilize comparable random walk forecasts as benchmarks. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, the long-term interest rate forecasts fail to outperform the random walk. Our findings on the accuracy of short-term interest rate forecasts are, however, mixed. Further results reveal that Blue Chip is more (less) accurate in predicting country risk premiums associated with short-term (long-term) interest rates. Such evidence is reasonable since the short-term country risk premiums contain only the perceived default risk, while the long-term risk premiums, in addition, can contain the perceived inflation and exchange rate differentials.

Do financial indicators have directional predictability for US home sales

ABSTRACT This study investigates the directional predictability of financial indicators for home sales across tranquil (1984–2005) and volatile (1972–1983 and 2006–2013) periods. We find that the mortgage rate has directional predictability for both existing and newly built home sales for up to 2005. The federal funds rate generally has directional predictability for existing (newly built) home sales in 1984–2005 (1972–1983). The term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 1972–1983 but generally not in the tranquil period of 1984–2005. Further, unlike mortgage and federal funds rates, the term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 2006–2013 and thus can help the Fed with useful information (assuming that this trend continues).

An evaluation of New Zealand macroeconomic survey forecasts

In evaluating the one-year-ahead survey forecasts of key indicators for New Zealand, this study tests rationality under flexible loss to allow for the possibility of an asymmetric loss associated with forecast errors. For 1988–2011, the consensus forecasts of inflation, output growth, and interest rate are rational (efficient) under symmetric loss, out-perform the naïve benchmark, and are directionally accurate. In contrast, the consensus forecasts of unemployment and exchange rates are not of value since, while efficient, they are not directionally accurate and fail to out-perform the naïve benchmark. Utilizing actual and survey data, we have formulated a model to forecast the unemployment rate. Comparable unemployment forecasts from this model are superior to the survey forecasts for 2000–2011. As the final step, we examine the accuracy of individual forecasters. Our findings reveal both differences and similarities between the consensus and individual forecasts in terms of rationality and other accuracy measures.

AID TO AGRICULTURE AND AGGREGATE WELFARE

In this paper, we focus on foreign aid-effectiveness in developing aid-recipient countries. By disaggregating total aid into sub-categories, we develop a model in which aid affects the welfare of the poor, as measured by a human development index. Our estimates (robust for different specifications) show that an increase in aid to the agricultural sector, one of our aid sub-categories, can improve the welfare of the poor, both directly and indirectly, through pro-poor public expenditure. Accordingly, more attention to the agricultural sector and reversing the decline in agricultural aid may improve the overall effectiveness of aid and achieve a sustainable transition out of poverty by increasing aggregate welfare.